KK vs SNE chasing nit

[badgers]

Villain is Prairie..Hawk. He is a big nit, I have him at 14/11 over 2k hands. His stats also show a 6% 3bet over that sample, but in my previous database he had a 2-3% 3bet (I can't recall exactly) over a far larger sample so I'm ignoring that stat. We haven't tangled for a while and there's no way I can even consider stacking off because his 5bet shoving range is AA (jyms it's still poker just a bit nitter).

My range for calling his 3bet is ridiculously narrow and he should know this. Until he adjusts and starts attacking my EP raises (which will be never ever) I fold JJ and AKo here preflop. Given that my range is so narrow, I'm kinda tempted to shove and rep QQ/AdKd. I think he will fold AA on this board since it is so difficult for me to have air. He basically has to put me on KK/JJ bluffing to make the call. Repping one hand is usually bad but when my range is so narrow surely it must be considered?



$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($100)
Hero ($216.70)
MP1 ($329.45)
MP2 ($77.75)
MP3 ($338.60)
CO ($286.85)
BTN ($106.55)
SB ($424.80)
BB ($267.25)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, MP3 raises to $26, 4 folds, Hero calls $18

Flop: ($55, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $32, Hero calls $32

Turn: ($119, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

River: ($119, 2 players)
$160 behind

[Deanglow]

Bet $30 on the river

[daven]

Villain is Prairie..Hawk. He is a big nit, I have him at 14/11 over 2k hands. His stats also show a 6% 3bet over that sample, but in my previous database he had a 2-3% 3bet (I can't recall exactly) over a far larger sample so I'm ignoring that stat.

I think he will fold AA on this board since it is so difficult for me to have air.

ok, you obviously put his 3-betting range wider than AA. So now you're asking whether you should turn your overpair into a bluff. Yet you're still ahead of his range (if he's such a nit then AdKx, AQ, KK are all still in there after the turn checks around).
Also, if he's that much of a nit then he's not raising the river with AA if you block, but will probably find a call with AQ and perhaps even AK.

I like value vs AQ here more than bluffing. $40 should do it. Nits like this rarely bluff-raise rivers for stacks, but they can hero-spew-call a river shove here with AA.

Looking at the hand more closely makes me wonder about flop play too.