OR checks turn on trips board, raises river?

[mixchange]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($92.60)
UTG ($844.20)
Button ($75.65)
Hero (SB) ($400)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q
UTG bets $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($28) A, A, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $20, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($68) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($68) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $44, UTG raises to $238, Hero ??



Just totally lost here. all I can think is that he is running some type of missisippi bluff , but that seems pretty insane here considering by river betting range is a lot of Aces and FHs. maybe pocket 10s? weird. id expect all his aces except really weak to bet turn

[WillburForce]

wow - I'm gonna be very helpful and say I would be as lost as you are.

As you say he should bet all his aces on the turn (except maybe A-Q/A-K), espcially after the flush draw appears. Maybe he did pick up a FH on the river. But he could be doing this with K-K/Q-Q maybe??

Any notes on him? How'd he get his stack? Because it doesn't add up I'd call I think (but meh, $400nl is higher than I play).

[XTR1000]

any idea of what he´s checking behind on turn?

given that a decent portion of your range b/c´s or b/3b´s this river and that his potential bluffs must be counting on that you´re either turning 88ish hands into a bluff or have been floating some random lo equity hand oop vs an utg raise Id say he´d be ambituos to be bluffing here. Also his sizing is all tough. Whats the weakest ace you could show up here with?

[Ravageur]

Gross for sure, but isn't this always 10s full? Given his raise size i don't think he's bluffing and we only beat AJ.

[bode]

yeah, 10's full is the only hand that makes sense, maybe AK, but he has to think your never paying off with worse than like exactly AQ here, right?

[meeloche]

I can't believe you'd post this hand without reads. If he's a complete unknown at least say so.

[mixchange]

You're right I should've posted reads. All I have are 22/19 TAG reg which I had barely tangled with and didn't see doing anything especially out of line.

[Donachello]

10s full is just about the only thing that makes sense here as previously said. It seems like any A hand he could have would have bet the turn seeing as how you have checked to him twice. I just don't see a TAG reg at 400NL making this bluff often enough to make it +EV to call here. The bet sizing seems like he wants you to think it's a bluff but on the other hand he could have 99-KK. I dunno... I'd probably ship it cause I'd be curious but that's why I don't play 400NL, because I make dumb calls.