3barrel spot

[minSim]

I feel like this is a decent 3barrel spot. Can you guys talk to a little thoughtprocess here?

130 hands on villain, 27/11/4.3 hasn't 3bet and seems to call light out of the blinds and on the flop. He tanked before calling the turn.

99-QQ, K9s-AK should be possible, heart draws, spade draws with an 8 in it. I assume he folds QQ- and calls TP+.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($10.75)
Hero (Button) ($50)
SB ($173.10)
BB ($103.25)
UTG ($57.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 9
2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 2, K, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.25) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6.50, BB calls $6.50

River: ($21.25) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ?


Some general thoughtsof my own about when to bet and when not (assuming 3/4 psb):
1. If villain calls any K, doesn't have 8x on the river, c/res FD's on the flop but sets not anywhere, I can't bet.
1a. above, but if he has some 8's on the river, I can bet.
1b. see 1, but villain will fold some K's, I can bet.

2. If villain calls all K's, wouldn't c/r FD's on the flop, but would raise his best hands somewhere (AK 3bet pre, sets raising somewhere), I can bet.
2a. If he doesn't raise his best hands nor his draws, I can bet.

[d0zer]

Don't think you have enough FE on the turn vs this guy. I haven't actually counted them, but I feel like there's a lot more combos of top pair than there are 99-QQ or FDs, given that there's 12 combos of every king (except K9).

We did pick up extra equity blah blah so firing it can't be terrible, but I think taking the free card is better.

I wouldn't fire the river either -- I don't think there's enough FDs in his range compared to top pair hands that are looking you up.

I'm not sure what exactly to make of his turn tank, I thought the std timing tell for draws was a quicker call. But even if he talked himself into a call with a weaker king, he very well might do the same on the river, which leaves you trying to fold FDs and 99,TT,QQ.

[oskar]

I think the turn bet is totally fine. you need barely any fold equity, and you actually want to build a pot against his calling range.
I wouldn't barrel the river simple because of how dry the flop is. I wouldn't want to try and bluff a loose passive player off a range that consists almost entirely of made hands, and whose thought process for calling could be something like "I have top pair, I have to call".

[Marshall28]

minsim,

how long have you been posting looking for advice on spots at 50nl? Are you still not good enough to move up or are you just destroying 50nl for like 6BB/100?

Don't try to make 50nl players fold top pair.

[minSim]

Marshall, not sure how long I have been at 50NL, probably at least a year. I don't play that many hands though, I think about 100k last year and have moved both up to 100NL and down to 25NL in those.
I'm not seeing why it's a big deal though (you made another comment about it a month back or so), imo it's better to be honest to yourself wether you're beating a stake or not.

It's funny you're asking it though, because I'm about to start a new shot at 100NL next session.

You think he has TP >60?

[Pelion]

I think the turn bet is totally fine. you need barely any fold equity, and you actually want to build a pot against his calling range.
I wouldn't barrel the river simple because of how dry the flop is. I wouldn't want to try and bluff a loose passive player off a range that consists almost entirely of made hands, and whose thought process for calling could be something like "I have top pair, I have to call".

Not to mention the fact that if we check [the turn], he probably bets with a lot of the hands he would have folded to a bet anyway and we have to call.

edit: wtf. we're in position. Anyway given your read I think the turn is fine. We can expect him to fold like 99 - JJ (QQ if he has it?), 78, 89, A8s and maybe some other 8x, and with so many nut outs building a pot in position is going to add a bit of value when we hit. Hes only really folding a missed flush draw on the river though and given that we hold 2 hearts, there arent that many combos. With the cards we hold and the board cards, the only real missed draws he can have that beat us are Axs. Id just give up.

[Marshall28]

I think the turn bet is totally fine. you need barely any fold equity, and you actually want to build a pot against his calling range.
I wouldn't barrel the river simple because of how dry the flop is. I wouldn't want to try and bluff a loose passive player off a range that consists almost entirely of made hands, and whose thought process for calling could be something like "I have top pair, I have to call".

Not to mention the fact that if we check, he probably bets with a lot of the hands he would have folded to a bet anyway and we have to call.

I make those comments because I've seen you post requesting advice on 50nl hands for months and months which can only mean one of two things. You are either now the best 50nl player out there with all of this information you've gathered and just refuse to move up. Or two, you post for advice then NEVER LISTEN TO IT, rendering any attempt anyone makes to help you a waste of their time.

You talked about being honest with yourself, that's the point of me asking those previous questions, to see if you are.

My % of how often he has tp would be heavily dependent on his timing throughout the hand, so I can't say. But I'm pretty sure it's often enough that betting is bad.

[Alexos]

not the greatest spot considering all the draws in the world missed, and TP is still TP on river.

If you were deep you could get him to fold if you c/shove overbet this river I guess.

[minSim]

I make those comments because I've seen you post requesting advice on 50nl hands for months and months which can only mean one of two things. You are either now the best 50nl player out there with all of this information you've gathered and just refuse to move up. Or two, you post for advice then NEVER LISTEN TO IT, rendering any attempt anyone makes to help you a waste of their time.

You talked about being honest with yourself, that's the point of me asking those previous questions, to see if you are.

My % of how often he has tp would be heavily dependent on his timing throughout the hand, so I can't say. But I'm pretty sure it's often enough that betting is bad.

You're being a little extreme here imo and looking at things a bit too black and white. The truth will be somewhere in between. You did trigger me to look things up in my HEM, which actually was interesting for me as well;

- I haven't even moved up to 100NL past year, that's even more then a year ago.
- I started the year at 50NL, played 32k hands for -0.38BB/100.
- I moved down to 25NL somewhere in march, played 54k hands for 3BB/100.
- I moved up to 50NL from august, played 38k hands for 2.2BB/100.

So no I'm definately not the biggest winner. I did develop from a losing to a decently winning player.

(sample size isn't that great, but I definately feel like I can handle game, which wasn't the case a year ago)

[Genitruc]

my thought process is bet-bet-decide if he ll fold a king/decide how often he has Kx

the last part depends completely on timing tells so based on what you said i think i d bet about 14

[IowaSkinsFan]

seems like a bad spot to 3 barrel

[Pelion]

seems like a bad spot to 3 barrel

Could we have a little more? No explanation at all isnt all that useful.

[jyms]

I personally don't like the 2 barrel here. I am finding more and more that if the turn card doesn't change the flop texture he isn't folding anything but maybe A high here. If he has A high then he's folding to a smaller bet and you can bet less with the equity you have with the hidden draw. 3 barrels is not really an option because like Marshal said, nobodys folding a K here at $50NL and certainly not someone with those aggression numbers C/C 2 streets, I think he bets or raises his air. TP is TP and you need to get reads on players that fold TP.

[bigspenda73]

seems like a bad spot to 3 barrel

Could we have a little more? No explanation at all isnt all that useful.

I think it's safe to say why he thinks it's a bad spot, not like there can be all that many reasons.

[Micro2Macro]

seems like a bad spot to 3 barrel

Could we have a little more? No explanation at all isnt all that useful.

board texture.

fd missed,

bdfd missed which would be a good card on turn for us to barrel i.e. if we have XsXs it didn't get there on river

board doesn't get any scarier for him and he obviously has a hand.

we're also in LP vs some passive guy there is no way in hell he's folding a K tho if you wanna have the best chance since he is probably a non thinker at least snap overbet jam so he gets scared at least but even then, he's gonna loook down and be like uh, I haz pair I call.

[Micro2Macro]

I personally don't like the 2 barrel here. I am finding more and more that if the turn card doesn't change the flop texture he isn't folding anything but maybe A high here. If he has A high then he's folding to a smaller bet and you can bet less with the equity you have with the hidden draw. 3 barrels is not really an option because like Marshal said, nobodys folding a K here at $50NL and certainly not someone with those aggression numbers C/C 2 streets, I think he bets or raises his air. TP is TP and you need to get reads on players that fold TP.

not 2barreling sucks because we have a ton of pot equity and barely need any fold equity for it to be profitable, especially if his turn calling range will call another bet on the river when we bink.

even vs really passive players 2barreling here is probably fine, though I'm not gonna lie I just said this right off the top of my head and didn't do any math, however..

..we can often get him off 8x or something weak that decided to peel one time, as minSim said he thinks he's peeling the flop light he may even be c/cing with A2 or something and planning to fold to further action.

[shakesss]

I think shoving the river if u are gonna bet it is probably the best play here. WTSD numbers will be quite imp if ur gonna do this. I prefer a triple barrel in this spot but a bet bet shove sorta plan, esp on this kinda opponent. I dont think he will ever fold kx to a close to pot sized bet .. and probably wont fold any under pairs to the king for a bet less than or half. I think the only hand that looks up a shove on the river is kj and he would probably bet that on the river.

[minSim]

Only thing that doesn't seem to match very well in most comments about the 3barrel being bad is that everyone wants to fold Kx. I don't necessarily want to fold Kx.

We're playing a passive player here, that tanked the turn before calling, he doesn't always have Kx. I did the ranges thing and my conclusions are in the lowest part of my post.

Not saying that makes it a good 3barrel. But only commenting villain won't fold Kx is a little shortsighted and not using all the information available.