I can never have the nuts... so I have to call blank river?

[mixchange]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($286)
MP ($192.05)
CO ($331.55)
Hero (Button) ($200)
SB ($200)
BB ($210.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, J
1 fold, MP calls $2, 1 fold, Hero bets $8, SB calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($20) K, J, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($20) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14, SB raises to $44, Hero calls $30

River: ($108) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $88



This is vs. a decent but not amazing reg 23/18/6% 3bet
On turn I figured I was up against a combo draw, bluff, or better jack. This is one of those spots where since I checked back the flop, I can never have the nuts and it makes sense to raise me. Re-raising seems out of the question. Plan is to call a blank river? I can't say I've found him particularly over-aggressive but I know he isn't by any means scared money.

I just kept hearing "You can never ever have the nuts here on the turn, so you need to call down because you checked flop and turned trips" in my head during this hand.

WWYD?

[minSim]

I think you're smoked. I see your range isn't nutted and such and you basically have the top of it, but villain has quite a bunch of better hands and he has to be bluffing quite a bit of air hands on turn+river for you to be good.

I like a flop bet as well.

[pocketfours]

Meh. The fact that you can't have the nuts is totally irrelevant here. I don't think it's a very bad spot to call but I'd still fold at least with this river.

[zook]

Not a bluff imo, better J or 66 usually, maybe one or two flush combos.

[griffey24]

Your logic doesn't really make sense for this board/action. This kind of thought process would make more sense if you checked back a flush draw flop and bet a flush turn card and he c/r you.

On this board/card if there's anything your line reps its EXACTLY Jx. Pot controlling flop and betting the turn trips. You have exactly what he thinks you have, and he's still betting into you on the river.

River looks like a fold, I doubt he's value towning himself with JTx and the FD even got there.

[mixchange]

I guess with my Red Line (non sd) being so poor I really am looking for spots where I'm being bluffed out these days, especially vs. regs... It's probably more in simple two and three barrel spots (them barreling me and me failing to/being floated) than this type of spot though...

Would anyone call a blank river? This river obviously was an easy fold, but I was wondering about the hand in general.

I use the "he can almost never have it when he checks this flop" when running bluffs on opponents, e.g. c/r turn when they bet their SD-bound hand and fire river. Works pretty often if they decide to bet the turn, although its definitely true that a J is one of the prime hands I'd check back on the flop. If I had something like AJ or KJ I might bet here, but QJ just seems like I'm towning myself too much on the flop, and may induce on the turn.

[zook]

Upping your own aggression and finding more spots to exploit nittags is a much better way of improving your red line than finding more spots to call.

[Dragon Slayer]

I think what Grif said. Vil feels like he know you have a J the way the hand went down. His bet sizing looks VBish if not a little bigger. I am curious like mixchange said about calling the river on a blank. What if its blank and Vil bets same amount into us?

[Dragon Slayer]

I think what Grif said. Villian feels like he knows you have a J the way the hand went down. His bet sizing looks VBish if not a little bigger. I am curious like mixchange said about calling the river on a blank. What if its blank and Vil bets same amount into us?