tough river spot

[meeloche]

Villain is an pretty good regular. Definitely above average for 2/4. I played a lot with him at 3/6 last year and a decent amount this month. He plays well postflop but is more tricky/trappy than a lot of regs. He doesn't 3 bet very much ~5%.

I would say he is capable of bluffing here however I'm unsure on how often or how well his range is balanced. His river timing was very fast, he is playing around 16 tables though fwiw.

River sizing is certainly up for discussion as well.

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (2 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($731.80)
BB ($422)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
Hero bets $10, BB calls $8

Flop: ($24) 3, Q, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB calls $20

Turn: ($64) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $48, BB calls $48

River: ($160) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $108, BB raises $342 (All-In) Hero?

[griffey24]

I'd much prefer a bet of around 125-130ish on the river, especially since I think 9x is always c/c and never c/r.

I'd also have a much easier time b/f if I had originally bet 125ish.

I'm torn on what to do with this bet sizing. I think he can get to this river with a fair number of spades, but I also think given your sizing, he probably thinks you rarely have AK and certainly not a flush. Pick a level I guess!

[Marshall28]

The title didn't lie, it's definitely a really tough spot. Your river sizing is good against weak players, but against good ones who are competent hand readers I think overall you are going to have a much easier time getting paid off by betting closer to the size of the pot on the river since it makes your value range seem narrower and bluff range seem wider. Whereas when you make this 108->160 it looks like you are value betting a wide range of hands meaning you have a flush much less frequently giving him the opportunity to turn his KJ or whatever into a bluff and shoving over you repping the flush.

It's gonna be really unclear whether or not you barrel this turn w/ spades anyways unless it's specifically AKss since he should know you expect it to get called so frequently.

Ugh I really dunno what to do here, but I woulda bet way bigger on the river--since you get value from more hands--plus, if he did shove it would be much easier to just toss the hand.

Also, I woulda bet much bigger on the turn also, he just has 2pr or pr+oesd so often that you are missing out on some value.

[Ravageur]

Seems like a fold to me, though I think the river bet size is problematic. I would rather either bet small or bet big. By betting small he can value-raise-own himself and he can call with two pairs that might fold to any sizeable bet and by betting big you achieve what marshall said.

Definitely a tough spot though.

[Ravageur]

It's also so hard for him to not have some kind of combo draw with his FD that doesn't raise at some previous point making it tough to fold but he probably knows that you know that etc..