AA faces dat value fish turn-line

[Carroters]

Villain is 40/8/0.8 over 30 hands. Has been doing a bunch of limping and checking. I hate, hate, hate this when it's a fish.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($26.75)
MP ($5)
Button ($10.05)
SB ($24.45)
BB ($25.15)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) 4, 4, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.80, BB calls $1.80

Turn: ($5.70) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.20, BB raises $8.40


}

Thoughts?

[Icanhastreebet]

Ship it

[daven]

in theory you should fold
in practice i probably call cos i'm a fish

[spoonitnow]

Board: 4h 4s 2s 3c
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	46.655%  	46.31% 	00.34% 	          1080 	        8.00   { AcAd }
Hand 1: 	53.345%  	53.00% 	00.34% 	          1236 	        8.00   { 88-22, A4s, K4s, Q4s, J4s, T4s, 94s, 84s, 74s, 64s, 54s, A4o }

Quickly threw together a representative range for the sake of having something rather pessimistic to look at. Even if our equity is this bad, we should still at least call and call a river bet. However, I think I'm a fan of 3-betting the turn, expecting our equity against his stacking-off range to be much greater than the sample range given above. I prefer this to calling and raising on the turn since there are plenty of overcards to the board that can keep us from getting value from worse overpairs, and we can also extract more value from draws like this.

[OhioRounder]

Spoon, do you really think a fish at this level with a 0.8 AF (only 30 hands though) would min-raise the turn on just a draw? I see a 4x in his range a here a ton. Not enough for me to ship it but not enough for me to fold.

[spoonitnow]

Spoon, do you really think a fish at this level with a 0.8 AF (only 30 hands though) would min-raise the turn on just a draw? I see a 4x in his range a here a ton. Not enough for me to ship it but not enough for me to fold.

Yes, definitely. His aggression factor does not matter at all over 30 hands.

Edit: Let me elaborate on the AF thing and why AF needs a really large sample to mean anything, and even then it doesn't mean a whole lot except in the context of other stats. Over 30 hands he's had a VPIP of 40%, which means he's usually played about 12 hands. If he played an average of 2.5 streets per hand, that's about 30 actions he's made. AF is (bets + raises)/calls. So after about 30 actions, he has a ratio of about 17 calls for 13 combined bets/raises. Now if we look at his preflop stats of 40/8, that's 32% of 30 hands (about 10 instances) where he's made a call preflop.

So now post-flop we have about 7 calls for about 13 total bets/raises, which would mean his post-flop AF is about 2. A post-flop AF of 2 might not seem significant for a tight-aggressive player, but when you consider that he's been playing with about 40% of starting hands so far, it's a different story.

But anyway the point is that AF needs a lot of hands and for the purposes of this hand he's basically an unknown in terms of AF.

[OhioRounder]

Ok, point taken. Totally agree. I don't even have AF on my HUD anymore, which explains my half-assed knowledge of it.

[bigspenda73]

never not seeing a river, best way to get there is debatable

[cleanup.that]

It depends on the opponent. At these stakes tho, that line from any tight or decent player means youre beat. If hes a retard tho I'm shipping all day.