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50nl overpair on river, bet or check
villain is 23/9 over 146. he has cbet 86% over a small (7) sample. because he is UTG i'm thinking his range is something like 88+,AK,AQs or therebouts. im thinking he cbets pretty much all overpairs and sets, and he may sometimes cbet missed AK AQ, i dont know (although if he checks 99 or TT that makes my play on later streets bad) i expect him to double barrel 88 and maybe KK+ for value on the turn, and check the rest for pot control/induce river value. also because he is typically way ahead/behind to all of my range except 77 and 44. when the river bricks i decided to value bet because i felt his range was something like 99+ (18 combos i beat, 1 chop, 12 beat me) and he was never going to try to bluff me with the missed part of his opening range on this board. obviously i also assumed he never folds an overpair after the turn is checked, but he may sometimes lay down 99 or TT. i'm not sure if i prefer check/calling on this board? thoughts on all streets appreciated. berate me if necessary.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($12.70)
Hero (SB) ($157.35)
BB ($49.60)
UTG ($49.50)
UTG+1 ($36.70)
MP1 ($39.65)
MP2 ($52.55)
MP3 ($21.15)
CO ($77.05)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q , Q
UTG bets $2, 5 folds, Button calls $2, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold
Flop: ($6.50) 6 , 8 , 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4
Turn: ($14.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks
River: ($14.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $8.50, UTG calls $8.50
Total pot: $31.50
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