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50nl overpair on river, bet or check

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  1. #1
    rpm's Avatar
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    Default 50nl overpair on river, bet or check

    villain is 23/9 over 146. he has cbet 86% over a small (7) sample. because he is UTG i'm thinking his range is something like 88+,AK,AQs or therebouts. im thinking he cbets pretty much all overpairs and sets, and he may sometimes cbet missed AK AQ, i dont know (although if he checks 99 or TT that makes my play on later streets bad) i expect him to double barrel 88 and maybe KK+ for value on the turn, and check the rest for pot control/induce river value. also because he is typically way ahead/behind to all of my range except 77 and 44. when the river bricks i decided to value bet because i felt his range was something like 99+ (18 combos i beat, 1 chop, 12 beat me) and he was never going to try to bluff me with the missed part of his opening range on this board. obviously i also assumed he never folds an overpair after the turn is checked, but he may sometimes lay down 99 or TT. i'm not sure if i prefer check/calling on this board? thoughts on all streets appreciated. berate me if necessary.

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
    Button ($12.70)
    Hero (SB) ($157.35)
    BB ($49.60)
    UTG ($49.50)
    UTG+1 ($36.70)
    MP1 ($39.65)
    MP2 ($52.55)
    MP3 ($21.15)
    CO ($77.05)
    Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
    UTG bets $2, 5 folds, Button calls $2, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold
    Flop: ($6.50) 6, 8, 5 (3 players)
    Hero checks, UTG bets $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4
    Turn: ($14.50) 3 (2 players)
    Hero checks, UTG checks
    River: ($14.50) 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets $8.50, UTG calls $8.50
    Total pot: $31.50
  2. #2
    Other than possibly 3betting preflop which is image/read/history dependent, I think this hand looks pretty standard. I expect AA/KK to bet turn a decent % here so I think we're best a lot.
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  3. #3
    Join Date
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    squeeze is an option pre, but calling is fine too - it's so much a style thing.
    I like your line, anything that beats 77 should be calling, hell, 77 is probably calling too.
  4. #4
    I like the way you played this hand. I agree that 3betting is an option preflop, but you have to be willing to get it all in. I would hate to 3bet/fold QQ. 3betting a passive 23/9 will get you a fold or an all in preflop IMO. You're losing to his all in range of AK, KK+. Take a flop and look for at least 2 streets of value. Fold to any aggression.

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