overbet bluffing vs supernit 50nl

[rpm]

villain is 5/3 over 150. i wouldnt often bother tangling with this guy except when i steal his blinds every single orbit, but i felt he's just so exploitable and wanted to play a pot. flop i bet because i wanted to fold JJ and AK (or TT if he is limping AK and raising TT+ or something) he may even call with all of TT+,AK (his range at its widest) or whatever. really good turn card for me i thought because its so hard for him to have a queen. most people this nitty dont open AQs. sample size may be too small to draw such conclusions, i don't know. so say he calls the flop with only QQ+, thats 9 combined combos of AA and KK, and one of QQ. i assume someone this conservative and nitty doesnt make hero calls with AA or KK on the river. this is not standard for me but it seemed like a fun spot, if not one which might earn me a "3barrel bluffs air when checked to" note from some of the players. villain has to fold 21/(21+17.25) = 54% of the time on the river. thoughts?

weaktight | Hand Poll | 9As - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem