100nl-2 spots line check

[shakesss]

Villain is 24/20/4.8 AF. PFR EP 16%. 368 Hands.

I called coz it was multi way and he raises a lot out of EP. The SB was 46/12 so there was added incentive.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($195.90)
SB ($290.95)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($100)
MP ($192.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A
UTG bets $3.50, MP calls $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($14) 10, A, 6 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $10, 2 folds, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($34) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($34) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $16, UTG raises $50, Hero folds

Total pot: $66



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Villain is 29/24/5.0 AF. 35% percent fold to 3bet. Button raise 50 %. 278 Hands.

I had noticed that he makes smaller raises with weaker hands on the button and makes larger ones with better hands. I wanted to 3b but he rarely gives up to them ip. The river decision was close, but his bet looked fishy.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($100)
Hero (SB) ($99)
BB ($98.50)
UTG ($62.05)
MP ($158.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 7
2 folds, Button bets $2.50, Hero calls $2, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($7.50) 6, 7, 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $4, BB calls $4, Button calls $4

Turn: ($19.50) 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, Button bets $13, Hero calls $13, 1 fold

River: ($45.50) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $32, Hero calls $32

Total pot: $109.50


All comments are welcome and would be appreciated.

[minSim]

1) With the fish in the pot and position on him and relative position etc calling pre is good imo.
I prefer a flop lead a little over c/c and would probably bet/fold a little more on the river.

2) 287 hands isn't that big of a sample for 3bet/4bet stats so don't count too much on them. Your read is very helpful though, I'd muck my hand pre because of it.
Lead bigger on the flop.

I don't like your turn+river line; the 2 biggest draws got there, and villain isn't valuebetting worse so you're basically hero calling against a random non-T float that bets turn against 2 villains and river, etc etc.
I would just b/f turn myself (and c/f river when called).

[Carroters]

2. Agree about c/c turn not being good on the turn. There's still plenty value to be snactched up from worse pairs pair+sd and draws. I think he's checking back most of these on the turn a lot.

Folding river for sure, there just isn't much air he can have he at all.

[shakesss]

Thanks for the response guys.

Let me run my thought process by you for Hand 2. Hope it makes sense.


The reason I decided to c/c turn was because PFR's over call looked really FOS on the flop. The two is a complete brick, and so i wanted to pot control/induce bets coz i thought i would be good a lot. If it checked back I would defo lose value from some small pairs and draws, but i also didn't want to open myself up to getting raised of my hand. His Af is 5.0. The c/c turn and river line was purely based on sizing. His 13 bet on the turn looks really weird. Like why would he bet so much on the turn and not put in any action on the flop ip if he had a strong hand. I can see him taking this line with 88's-10's(maybe JJ) but nothing else. The river bet was close, but again because of his sizing and the way the hand played i called. If he had 89, i can see him raising the flop with it, two overs and a oesd, sometimes. The other cards that hit the 10 like 10 9 or 10 8 cant be too comfortable betting so much on the river, after the hand played out this way. 88-jj might not make such a big river bet, except tens which would make this bet. So it narrows down to 89 or 10's. Other than that i cant see very many hands playing the turn and river this way.

[Carroters]

But why does he ever just overcall the flop with air in the first place? This is quite a weird thing to assume someone is capable of without more accurate reads. Do you feel he's just spazzing out with a weak pair - turning it into a bluff on the turn?

he might not rep a huge amount, but does he really have that much air in his range that needs to bet the turn in the first place here. Overcall/floating flop with just overcards or whatever seems really bad and not something even most aggro guys will do very much imo.

I mean, I agree his overcall on the flop looks like a weak range, but I'd think more of a sd valuey/possibly a draw checking back the turn sort of weak rather than a needs to bluff sort of weak.

[tstrout]

Leading the river was a mistake. Your J-high flush is nothing but a bluff-catcher at this point. It is the only way to make money with it. You either get a fold or a raise, nothing in between. With position, you could make a really tiny bet with it, like $5 after a check, and that's it, but you should check behind most of the time because you can't stand being check-raised. You need a cheap showdown with a J-high flush on that board.

[shakesss]

But why does he ever just overcall the flop with air in the first place? This is quite a weird thing to assume someone is capable of without more accurate reads. Do you feel he's just spazzing out with a weak pair - turning it into a bluff on the turn?

he might not rep a huge amount, but does he really have that much air in his range that needs to bet the turn in the first place here. Overcall/floating flop with just overcards or whatever seems really bad and not something even most aggro guys will do very much imo.

I mean, I agree his overcall on the flop looks like a weak range, but I'd think more of a sd valuey/possibly a draw checking back the turn sort of weak rather than a needs to bluff sort of weak.

I get what you are saying, and agree that in a vacuum its probably a bit suicidal. However, i did have some reads in this hand. Firstly, that his smaller than usual preflop raise on the button were weaker hands when they went to showdown. Secondly, his bet sizing for turn and river were not congruent with his flop action and my reads on his preflop holdings. Thirdly, he really tanked before betting the river, which also influenced my decision ( which i forgot to mention..). The reason i posted this hand was that it worked out for me this time but it doesn't make it the correct play, and i wanted to know what others had to say about it and what lines we can take in similar situations without reads. Appreciate the insight.

[shakesss]

Leading the river was a mistake. Your J-high flush is nothing but a bluff-catcher at this point. It is the only way to make money with it. You either get a fold or a raise, nothing in between. With position, you could make a really tiny bet with it, like $5 after a check, and that's it, but you should check behind most of the time because you can't stand being check-raised. You need a cheap showdown with a J-high flush on that board.

The reason we lead the river is because we can get value from hands he might check down if we check. If he has a higher flush he can decide on the size of a bet which we may have to call, or he can over bet bluff or bet an amount as a bluff that we will have to fold to. By betting this spot he will be calling with hands we beat, and raising hands we don't beat at a price that we have chosen.

In retrospect i should have bet like 20-22, coz my original sizing can be exploited by a bluff raise, but that doesn't happen too often.

[tstrout]

We'll just have to agree to disagree on the value of leading a Jhigh flush OOP on a four flush board. There is no price you can set holding anything other than the Ace that keeps you from getting exploited. All you set was the amount you were willing to lose to a raise or a call. And I guarantee you any call beats your hand. You may be the type to make hero calls with 1 pair or a low flush on a 4flush board, but most people don't. Your only value is as a bluff catcher, and that assumes you have the best hand.

When you play OOP, you have to be more passive on the river with medium strength hands or risk exactly what happened. What size bet would you call in your opponent's shoes with less than a Jhigh flush? Would you really call even $16?

The point is this, would you rather throw away $16 and not even see a showdown or call $22 and get to see a showdown? With your hand, you need a showdown.

[griffey24]

Hand 1
-I'd bet river for value for sure, and fold to the raise

Hand 2
-I might bet turn again here. Its a spot where I think bb folds often, and PFR may call better/worse, but if he's capable of folding we can potentially even turn our hand into a bluff on the river.