JJ in MP vs CO, Turn pairs A - 50NL

[caddie444]

Villain is 15/5 over 150ish and I haven't really noticed him get out of line

I think flop is pretty standard. I c-bet b/c I still have the best hand a good amount of the time and I need to protect my hand vs his overcards/draws, lower pairs.

I need help with turn/river plan basically

I think his range after his flop call is like Ax's, (discounted 9x's prob) flush draws and sets

Once the board pairs A on the turn I'm not sure how to really play against this range as the draws will just call likely if I bet as well his Ax's (possibly 9x's?) and he may/may-not choose to raise with his full houses.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP1) ($50)
MP2 ($65.10)
CO ($53)
Button ($50)
SB ($50)
BB ($55.05)
UTG ($51.30)
UTG+1 ($104.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with ,
2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) (2 players)
Hero ???

[rpm]

tough one. if he is straightforward i think maybe bet/fold and sleep easy believing that he doesn't raise you with air or a flush draw. although its a tough river decision most of the time when he calls. hmm. i sense this is a spot i would play very badly in.

[Im_new]

Bet/fold sounds right for about %40 of pot.

[Micro2Macro]

Bet/fold sounds right for about %40 of pot.

50-60% seems way better.

[Im_new]

50-60% seems way better.

ur right.

[badgers]

Wait what? Why are we betting 50-60% of pot when he's never folding better in this spot? To get value out of TT???

Just check and hope for showdown. I'd far rather do that than force myself into 3barrelling a nit who's probably still got AQ/AK in his range...

[caddie444]

At first after I thought about it after the session I was like yah bet/fold seems good but then I thought the same thing Badgers is saying and I'm like ok well he's obv continuing with like his entire flop/calling range to a bet on the turn so no matter what I'm going to be put in a crap spot on the river and I can't really c/c turn, c/f river...

After I thought about it some more I think I still like 1/2 pot bet/folding the turn and river (if a heart doesn't fall), we still get value from his draws and he's rarely gonna bluff us when he misses.

In the actual hand my plan was to c/f, I figured no nit is going to be turning a heart draw into a bluff here...

[Micro2Macro]

Wait what? Why are we betting 50-60% of pot when he's never folding better in this spot? To get value out of TT???

Just check and hope for showdown. I'd far rather do that than force myself into 3barrelling a nit who's probably still got AQ/AK in his range...

I can see checking turn being good

but no one is saying we have to fire a 3rd barrel (which would be incorrect on almost any river but a J I imagine).

the decision to bet the turn depends on how stationy he is which is info op did not give so the question is how likely is he to call down with T9s,98s,88,(77 even),fd's etc...and compare that to how many combos of Ax+boats he can have.

[caddie444]

Just check and hope for showdown

I can see checking turn being good

c/f'ing or c/c'ing?

[KillsAids]

isn't turn the best card for us? i like bet/folding turn half pot ish, if he called with 9x on the flop I don't think he's ever folding it now, same with TT. his FD's also may not fold. Obv I check any river but a J or A.

[KillsAids]

was just chatting with badgers about this and here's my thinking

After the flop call, his range is AX/9X/TT/FD's (and gutshots? We don't know how often he calls a cbet).

If we bet like half pot'ish on the turn, firstly we deny him the chance of bluffing us once or twice because we don't really stand a bluff, and secondly the pot isn't big enough to get the stacks in with a single river bet, so he may very well raise his AK and boats a decent portion of the time. And since our bet is small he may call with the TT/9X/FDs a lot.

When river misses the flush, his range is weaker than if we had c/c the turn because he would raise a lot of very strong hands on the turn, so we can c/c a lot depending on sizing/timing/reads.

Now to go back to c/c the turn, I think it's bad because he might bet his FD's on the turn and not on the river which would be a disaster because now he owns us with his bet turn/bet river line that just crushes us. And if we plan to c/c turn and c/f river, we get owned by his bluffs, so it goes back to how often we think he's capable of bluffing and all. Without these specific reads about how he bluffs his whiffed draws, I believe we have to bet turn smallish and c/c any missed FD (or bet any J or A) provided he's making average sized bets.