2/4: 3 barrels vs donkbet

[pocketfours]

Villain is 19/16 nitty TAG (3% 3bet) over 300 hands. No reads or history. BB is LAG with 11% 3bet.

CO ($406)
Hero (Button) ($506.40)
SB ($529.50)
BB ($804.60)
UTG ($400)
MP ($414.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A
3 folds, Hero bets $8, SB calls $6, BB calls $4

Flop: ($24) Q, 9, Q (3 players)
SB bets $16, 1 fold, Hero raises to $40, SB calls $24

Turn: ($104) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $78, SB calls $78

River: ($260) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $380.40 (All-In)

[Ravageur]

ur a sicko, is a nit really b/calling flop and c/calling turn oop without the nuts/nearnuts here on a drawy board? This seems like a horrible spew unless you're pretty confident that he folds AQ/QJ.

[pocketfours]

Villain timed down quite a bit pre so I'm thinking he doesn't have 99 which would be a very easy call for him pre. He certainly doesn't have Q9 and I also don't think he has TJ. He could easily have aces.

[pocketfours]

Certainly AQ has to be least discounted after turn call.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I'd fold flop everytime, I am not convinced he never has a queen here.

If you do raise the flop, I don't think I'd shove river. Too many things he could have had on the flop hit on the river, such as 9xss or JT.

[pocketfours]

I thought he probably does have a queen. Just not a boat unless it's exactly KQ. I doubt very much this nit calls a big bet on the turn with JT. I also think he folds AQ/QJ on the river. He might even fold a flush.

[IowaSkinsFan]

If he is folding AQ/QJ, clearly this is good. I would only put partial weight on him folding those hands in this situation; there are too many motivations for him to want to call.

[Marshall28]

If you are raising flop, it has to be w/ the intention of getting him off QJ/AQ at some point, meaning you have to fire off the three barrels. Otherwise the play on the flop is clearly just to call (or folding is obv also an option) since you likely have the best hand a lot.

This play is still crazy high variance and we can't even be sure if it's actually +ev given what ISF said about villains motivations to call w/ the two hands we are trying to get him off.