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How low should we go? (discussion on exploiting unbalanced ranges)
so i've been playing a fair amount of HU lately, and it's led to a lot of contemplating on spots where regs' ranges naturally become very very unbalanced at small stakes.
So let's say for this spot, villain is a standard 100nl reg: like 20/16 over a 150 hand sample, 5% 3b with his resteal being around 7%. he's 4/10 folding to flop cbets so far and has raised 1 of those 10 cbets. let's say for the heckuvit, we've seen him showdown with some kinda weakish implied odds hand in an ATS spot before like Q9s or something.
so, in this hypothetical spot, even without a huge DB on this villain or any kind of soul reading notes on him or anything, we assume that villain's range for a c/r is going to be retardedly unbalanced 'cause he never has KK, almost never has AK, and i very very rarely see described villain c/r TPGK for value, and obv there are all sorts of combos of draws.
also, his sizing weighs us a bit toward it NOT being value 'cause his sizing is pretty small to be doing it for value on such a wet board.
so the question is: what's the worst hand we wanna call with without any more reads or any bigger sample than what is given here?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($143.50)
BB ($100)
UTG ($439.60)
MP ($100)
CO ($58.50)
Hero (Button) ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with XxYy
3 folds, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2
Flop: ($6.50) 7 , 4 , K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $8
Turn: ($30.50) K (2 players)
BB bets $18, Hero calls $18
River: ($66.50) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
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