Bad Fold by Holy Grail of Poker?

[phil8493]

Just bought Holy Grail of Poker. I was loving it! Amazing video, amazing software -- but then this hand comes up!!?? I think this is a bad fold... And, it makes me lose some confidence in the software... what do you think? I apologize if I screwed up the converter... It doesn't look like the other posts people make. I manually put in his and my stats.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($219.15)
CO ($223.80) This guy is 10/30/1.2 (i..e, PF R/VP$IP/Aggression)
Button ($596.45)
SB ($121.20)
BB ($146.90)
Hero (UTG) ($230.15) I'm 10/14/2.1 (i..e, PF R/VP$IP/Aggression)
UTG+1 ($171.75)
MP1 ($171.40)
MP2 ($245.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , JcJd
Hero bets $8, 4 folds, CO calls $8, Button calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($27) , 8s 5h 3c, (3 players)
Hero bets $18, CO calls $18, 1 fold

Turn: ($63) 8c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $30, Hero calls $30

River: ($123) 4s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $90, Hero calls $90

Total pot: $303 | Rake: $3


I thought I played the hand well, but here's what my new software said about the hand...

1. It liked my continuation bet on the flop w/ an expected value of $32 for a bet and $16 for a check.
2. It was indifferent between c betting and checking the turn
3. It said to call the turn bet with an expected value of $7.60
4. It said to fold to the river bet with my over pair (i.e., two pair)!? It says the expected value of a call on the river is ($30), i.e., negative $30!

I know he could have an eight, but I think my call on the river is still good. What do you guys think?

[oskar]

Never heard of it. I think turn is an easy bet, unless he floats a lot.

From the way you talk about the hand I can't imagine that you're winning at 200nl - you're better off starting at a lower level and grinding your way up. Play 200NL once you have a 10k bankroll.

google combinatorics and ev calculations if you want to know how to figure that stuff out by yourself.

[WillburForce]

this sounds like thinly veiled spam........google Holy Grail of Poker anyone? I know I won't....

(oh and if not, bet the turn as above).

[oskar]

I did
Seems to be a poker bot that tells you what it would have done after the hand is over.

[IowaSkinsFan]

You may be better off c/fing or b/fing the turn but I'd fold the river for sure.

[mcatdog]

I googled Holy Grail of Poker and this thread was the first hit LOL.

Agree with folding the river though.

[meeloche]

{moved from shnl}

[phil8493]

I googled Holy Grail of Poker and this thread was the first hit LOL.

Agree with folding the river though.

Yeah. There forum only has about 25 posts -- seems pretty new. That's why I posted here instead of there.

I'm surprised it's a clear fold....

But I guess that's why I bought the software, LOL....

Thanks.

[rpm]

i'd advise using your own head to learn poker.

[phil8493]

i'd advise using your own head to learn poker.

Dude... Why bust on me?

Of course, one must use his head to:

• play poker (to learn)
• read forums like this (to learn)
• analyze his poker tracking software (to learn) and
• take kind advice from people like you.

However, here's the problem w/ using ONLY your head in poker. What causes me great trouble w/ poker is that there is no feedback. So... On this particular hand, my call worked out and I won. So -- seems like if I use only my head I should conclude that this was smart poker. Fortunately, this software tells me it was wrong. Now, even though I want to disagree -- I come to you and your friends here on FTR and you guys share w/ me that I was wrong.

Hmmmm.... Sounds like that's using my head!!!

What am I missing?

[oskar]

Think about what range of hands he can have. What does he call the flop and bet the turn with, and what part of that will he bet again on the river. You beat a complete airball bluff and a massively overplayed 99, TT. The only draw on the flop completes on the river, unless he can have 46, so there's no missed draws for him to bluff with.
You need to know how often you need to be good to make this call -> google pot odds
You need to know what % of range you beat when you call -> google combinatorics.

The reason nobody wants to talk about the hand is because without any notes on the player the right play could be anything.

[Poker Guru]

River is a clear fold. Straight is completed with this river, too.