turn decision, bottom set - 50nl

[daven]

villain seems fairly reggy, and maybe even competent for the stakes - 16-13 over an ok sample, 63% c-bet. I've been very tight at this table so far.
raise the turn? Thing is, i turn my hand pretty much face up when i raise here - like, i'm almost always JJ+/sets, and i'm not sure he's bet-calling with much that i beat?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($51.50)
MP1 ($53)
MP2 ($50)
CO ($76.40)
Hero (Button) ($50)
SB ($50)
BB ($15.25)
UTG ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, 2
2 folds, MP1 bets $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 2, 6, 3 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3, MP1 calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 8 (2 players)
MP1 bets $6.75, Hero raises to ???,

[caddie444]

This is a pretty goofy line by villain, I raise b/c he sometimes has some funky bd draws now and weirdly played overpairs and giving a free card seems bad.

[kmind]

I feel like we should flat turn. I think he's really strong and doesn't have backdoor draws.

[PapalRage]

I think this is definitely a flat. If villain is bad enough to c/c broadway clubs here, he is bad enough to do it with broadway diamonds and hearts too and will probably bet the turn like this with some frequency. If villain is betting here with clubs, he only has 7 outs and would probably fire his missed draw on the river a decent amount too, especially if he spikes a pair. If he has a bizarre overpair (most likely holding IMO), the value you lose by not letting him fire at least a blocking bet on the river is huge.

When I see a crazy bad line like this, its usually AA or some spazzy bluff. Both of which you should flat against.

[Seabass]

You say your range for raising is JJ+ and sets, do you even have AA/KK here? If so, do you raise them? What about TT? How far off am I if I say that the worst hand you would like to raise for value here is 22? If not, what hands are you looking to get value from with lets say QQ? Would you ever bluff raise here?

He looks very polarized when he CC your strong flop bet and donk the turn. By flatting I think you under-rep your hand and at the same time protect your flatting range. If he is bluffing let him, even if he hit a backdoor draw I think the value from when he misses and bluffs river more then enough compensate for when he gets there.

While balance aint a big deal at 50nl, I think that why this might not be such a bad play by villain with AA is that:
A) players will stab with anything on the flop.
B) players will raise there strong 2P+ on the turn while hardly ever bluff.
C) players will call down with there "ok" hands like 99-QQ or worse.

All in all, I think calling is way better.
//Me like this hand, thx for posting.

[Da GOAT]

id flat turn and prob stack off on river, weird line by him but doesnt mean he is super strong.

[rpm]

this hand is interesting because my micro-stakes instilled first reaction was "raise it up obviously. only 27 combos beat you (if he opens 54s and 54o that is - unlikely)". however players far better than me are advocating flatting to keep his range airy. i could try to make an argument for either side to be honest. i agree his line makes no sense at all.

i mean who opens pre, C/C's this flop, donks turn? it makes no sense for sets (maybe i'm wrong, don't play 50nl), overpairs, two clubs (wouldn't they be better off C/R'ing flop or turn if they think you are attempting to steal pots cuz' you have position?

don't know. bedtime.

[caddie444]

i mean who opens pre, C/C's this flop, donks turn? it makes no sense for sets (maybe i'm wrong, don't play 50nl)

You'll see the same stuff @ 50nl as you do at the micros sometimes, like unusual lines like this.

I still think there's more value in raising small on the turn since we may get calls from any draws he does have (should he choose to continue with whatever air he has) and there's no guarantee he'll fire missed draws on the river... plus if he does have overpairs he likely isn't folding them.

[daven]

I still think there's more value in raising small on the turn since we may get calls from any draws he does have (should he choose to continue with whatever air he has) and there's no guarantee he'll fire missed draws on the river... plus if he does have overpairs he likely isn't folding them.

plan if he shoves over our raise?

[PapalRage]

plan if he shoves over our raise?

snapcall. if you don't want to get it here, why are you calling this hand pre?

[Micro2Macro]

you have the nuts

call and give him more rope or raise smallish

[PapalRage]

You'll see the same stuff @ 50nl as you do at the micros sometimes, like unusual lines like this.

I still think there's more value in raising small on the turn since we may get calls from any draws he does have (should he choose to continue with whatever air he has) and there's no guarantee he'll fire missed draws on the river... plus if he does have overpairs he likely isn't folding them.

I see what you are saying, but there are FAR fewer combos of broadway clubs in his opening range preflop vs. overpairs. There are 6 combos of AA alone and (AK, AQ, AJ, A10, KQ, KJ) makes 6 combos of suited clubs. He might not even open those hands everytime from MP1 depending on how positionally aware he is. Since villain is a 'competent reg' I think its very reasonable to think he might fold an overpair to a raise on the turn here. But unless we overbet shove or something he is never going to c/f the river with any overpair.

[daven]

you have the nuts

call and give him more rope or raise smallish

cool, cheers for the responses guys - it was an epic day on the underset front and i was after a sanity check.

I raised small, he shoved, i tank-called into his 33...

[nutsinho]

seems like a std call turn call any river spot...

[Da GOAT]

nuts - call any river? wud u not ship a fair amount of rivers like K,Q,J especially.

[Deanglow]

What do we put him on that calls flop and leads turn/river that calls a shove anywhere?

[Da GOAT]

yea but at the same time dont we feel we are way ahead on river anyway, so hopefully he calls with whatever he has. maybe he has TP, 2pair.

[badgers]

yea but at the same time dont we feel we are way ahead on river anyway, so hopefully he calls with whatever he has. maybe he has TP, 2pair.

this is full ring. Everyone has sets.

[Da GOAT]

lol