50NL - AK donked into on dry board

[AFchung]

Villain is 50/0 over 12 hands

Is it bad to just shove here? We'd have a lot of FE, he might call with random straight draws, and if we're beat we have two overs most of the time

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (Button) ($53)
SB ($85.90)
BB ($31.55)
UTG ($46.75)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($64.50)
MP2 ($68.80)
CO ($34.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $1.75, 2 folds, CO calls $1.75, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, CO calls $5.25

Flop: ($16.50) 2, J, 8 (2 players)
CO bets $7

[PapalRage]

donks love to c/r here with their good hands so I think a shove is probably best assuming you haven't been picking on him too much in those 12 hands.

[Micro2Macro]

i think i call and see what goes down on the turn

[badgers]

snapfold

[caddie444]

snapfold

This. Anything else is spew vs this guy with his stack size

[Halv]

Shove. He might fold some small pairs and/or call some draws, and we're drawing very live almost always when we're behind. It's gonna suck to have to give a free card and get owned by his bluffs/6+outs. If we knew something about his tendencies to barrell then we could call and call/jam/fold turn accordingly.

[AFchung]

pretty interesting to hear everyone's differing opinions. fwiw, i was tilted like mad during this session so i shoved as a de-tilt play and thankfully he folded

[Micro2Macro]

[ ] donk leads in 3b pots are strong

[badgers]

[ ] donk leads in 3b pots are strong

I feel like a ridiculous amount of the time this is a pair that is going to bet/call putting us (in this case quite correctly) on AK.

[Micro2Macro]

I feel like a ridiculous amount of the time this is a pair that is going to bet/call putting us (in this case quite correctly) on AK.

i think i have a pretty good success rate raising donks in 3b pots

i should hunt this down in my db and see if its just selective memory.

[caddie444]

I feel like a ridiculous amount of the time this is a pair that is going to bet/call putting us (in this case quite correctly) on AK.

Fish think: lol he has AK, and figure they're pot stuck and call a shove in my experience.

M2M I'd be interested what your DB has to say about this

[Halv]

We're gonna have like 32% vs his calling range, someone calculate how often he needs to fold to break even.

[daven]

pretty easy fold

Villain is 50/0 over 12 hands

We'd have a lot of FE, he might call with random straight draws, and if we're beat we have two overs most of the time

CO ($34.70)

note stack size, and stop over-estimating fold equity vs half-stack fish when they hit their aggro.

[Deanglow]

Just sigh and fold you have immediate position on him and he's only played 12 hands!

[kmind]

We're gonna have like 32% vs his calling range, someone calculate how often he needs to fold to break even.

If I did this right and we really do have 32% equity, then he only needs to fold ~8% of the time (ignore the "If I shove I think I will get called..." part):

[AFchung]

lol what program is that

[kmind]

CardrunnersEV

[Micro2Macro]

so whos folding now

[aka_red]

please to be telling me how i can receive this program.

[daven]

please to be telling me how i can receive this program.

just write it in excel
seriously tho, give me a shout in irc when i'm back in nz and i'll show you how to build it

[kmind]

please to be telling me how i can receive this program.

I didn't even know this tool was part of the program so def. check out everything it can do:

cardrunners-ev-calculator

[oskar]

stoxev has a tool that can do that as well if you have it.

I think we're almost never ahead and if we call we cannot bluff profitably on the turn and he migjt even fold if we hit. He'll probably lead the turn as well, so I really don't like calling. Bec. of stack sizes I dont think it's a ldo shove. For a player who doesnt top off and donks a weired amount after calling a 3b oop, this is a big bet. idk if we have 10% FE when he has less than HP to call .

[kmind]

It's the same tool but it's now called CardrunnersEV fwiw

[oskar]

oic... and it's the best thing ever guys.