Facing donk bet on river by nit 25NL FR

[Sup3rM4N]

Villain is 7/0/0 after 45 hands. he tanked flop and turn b4 calling and almost insta bet on river

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($25.77)
UTG ($40.77)
UTG+1 ($42.61)
MP1 ($10.52)
MP2 ($52.91)
CO ($22.15)
Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($21.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
4 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero bets $1, 2 folds, CO calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.35) , , (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.35) (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50

River: ($12.35) (2 players)
CO bets $10.50

[nickatina-69]

snap call, imo.

[Imthenewfish]

snap call, imo.

Why?

[nickatina-69]

actually maybe snap fold, im lost here, i thought snap call because you beat most pocket pairs and most Ax combos but it seems like a really wierd line when i look at it again, hes obv tight, maybe he limps 44 in CO?idfk, id prob call just to see

[Imthenewfish]

Why don't you try thinking the hand out before snap-making any play?

[Donachello]

This hand is weird. Based on that I'm probably going sigh/fold the river. He only reps boats, though a lot of times you'll see weird like A7 type hands here that the vill thinks they are somehow getting value with. Even still I don't see how you are ever good the ~30% of the time you need to be to call this.

And yes people will float two streets with 44 here sometimes because of the "LOL PAIRED BOARD HE CAN'T HAVE THOSE CARDS LOL" theory that everyone seems to have adopted these days.

[baudib]

ya weird. I wish we didn't have the Qs because at least he could have KsQs that whiffed. Almost no one at NL25 gives you credit for betting an ace on the flop so they might try to float/bluff.
His line makes no sense whatsoever so want to call, but it's a nit so he probably has it. A 7/0 can show up with AK, JJ and very rarely AT, so puke fold?

[Carroters]

Folding time.

Hand 0: 23.333% 13.33% 10.00% 2 1.50 { AhQs }
Hand 1: 76.667% 66.67% 10.00% 10 1.50 { JJ, ATs+, Ts9s, AJo+ }

A 7/0 prolly isn't playing too many aces worse than AJ pre-flop. This range gives him ATs and one combo of bustoed draw. I think this is on the wide side and it's still a fold. Even if he had ATo we couldn't really assume he did this with it 100% of the time on the river so it'd prolly still be a fold since we need like 31%.

[Micro2Macro]

god damn this is a gay spot im hammered as fuck right now but my first instinct would be fold unfortunately

[!Luck]

If he was 7/0 over 400 hands this would be different but 45 hands isn't that big of a sample to be that confident in the ranges.

[TheLongGrind]

i agree with !luck. when he calls flop i'd try to chechk back turn and bet river, potcontrol cuz indeed his range might be too narrow but then again 45 hands ain't much at all, pretty meaningless to me

[Johnny Cashout]

^^^^I don't agree with the turn check for pot control. You definitely do want to protect your hand from the spades and possible straight draws. no free cards there. Donk bet is /facepalm fold for me

rough situation. What did you end up doing?

[tyrn]

Idk, my crystal ball says call. I want to take some weight away from QQ and KK, and probably AK and JJ as well because, who limp calls any of those? But he's 7/0/0 so i guess it would make sense. Pretty whacky line for AJ, 33, or A3, why wouldn't he raise if he's going to donk 5/6 pot on the river? Maybe he got tired of being 7/0/0 and never betting and decided to take a stand with KJ .

So in a nutshell, this spot sucks.


Board: As Ac Js 3h 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 10 0.00 { AhQs }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 15 0.00 { JJ+, 33, AJs, A4s-A3s, KsTs, AJo, A4o-A3o }

p.s. look at all those zeros in the equity. The mathematical perfectness of this range makes me want to believe it's correct. Lol