Flopped set deep vs LAG, he 3-bets turn, what now?

[Robin]

Villain is about 50/40 with 20% 3-bet. Very aggressive post-flop, no showdowns in big pots yet.

Thoughts on 4-betting vs. flatting here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (2 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($159.20)
Hero (SB) ($126.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 7
Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.20) 7, 5, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($9.20) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $6.25, Hero raises to $15, BB raises to $30.50, Hero ???

[griffey24]

If you flat.. do you think its very likely he'll bluff the river? Is he bluffy aggressive, or just plays strong hands aggressively?

If he's very likely to bluff, I don't mind a flat, jam a non-heart river and flat a heart river (cause I'd expect him to bluff hearts sometimes too).

If he's not likely to bluff then I'd just 4bet since I don't expect this type to be able to fold many strong hands here and there's way more overpair combos and set combos that we beat than combos of 99.

[pocketfours]

Only two players?

[Shotglass]

Flat and jam the river.

[Razvan729]

with those stats isnt 68s in his BB calling range? cause if it is he's on a made straight.

[Robin]

If you flat.. do you think its very likely he'll bluff the river? Is he bluffy aggressive, or just plays strong hands aggressively?

If he's very likely to bluff, I don't mind a flat, jam a non-heart river and flat a heart river (cause I'd expect him to bluff hearts sometimes too).

If he's not likely to bluff then I'd just 4bet since I don't expect this type to be able to fold many strong hands here and there's way more overpair combos and set combos that we beat than combos of 99.

I think he both value bets pretty wide and bluffs fairly frequently - I expect him to bet the river a very large percentage of the time if I flat.

I definitely think he can have 97s, 86s, 75s. Overpairs not so much, he almost certainly 3-bets TT+.

[Robin]

Only two players?

Evidently, yes. Was a 6-max table but everyone else left. Wrong forum?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

flatting this flop is very bad

[Robin]

flatting this flop is very bad

Can you explain why flatting (my whole continuing range) vs. his donk is very bad?

(FWIW at these stakes I think his range for donking the flop is probably not balanced and is mostly made hands that don't want to see the flop check through - he might not expect me to c-bet too much if he checks)

[griffey24]

Can you explain why flatting (my whole continuing range) vs. his donk is very bad?

(FWIW at these stakes I think his range for donking the flop is probably not balanced and is mostly made hands that don't want to see the flop check through - he might not expect me to c-bet too much if he checks)

When people donk lead, they almost half expect that their donk lead will cause a spazz out. So people will likely assume you have a lot more bluffs in your range than you might actually have.

So might as well raise when you are this strong.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Can you explain why flatting (my whole continuing range) vs. his donk is very bad?

(FWIW at these stakes I think his range for donking the flop is probably not balanced and is mostly made hands that don't want to see the flop check through - he might not expect me to c-bet too much if he checks)

There are so many reasons! One of the most important ones is building the pot. Building a pot early exponentially increases the size of the pot later. If you raised this flop to $9-$12, you could reasonably bet $20 on the turn and $60 on the river without him putting in any more bets or raises. Luckily for you he lead the turn again, allowing you to raise, but if he checks instead, no you can only put in a bet of $7-$12 on the turn and twice that on the river, which is a much smaller sum.

Luckily for you he lead the turn, but even then... I bet this line looks stronger to many players and you are going to be paid off less taking it.

[Ravageur]

Indeed stubborn/bad Lags just autoship Q9 with BD flushdraw here when you raise their donk leads. Flop is a must raise.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Another reason you raise the flop is because 77 is much more valuable to your raising range than your flatting range.

As played I'd flat the raise on the turn.

[nutsinho]

not calling the turn would be a massive mistake. not sure about shipping river over a large bet...

[PokerWang]

He's a LAG. Bet on the flop. Flat and ship on river.