1/2 rush: nice river, but then...

[pocketfours]

Villain is 22/17/1.9af reg with 5% 3bet and 75% w@sd over 400 hands. Thoughts about flop line and river sizing welcome.


BB: $547.35
UTG: $534.20
MP: $594.35
CO: $200.00
Hero (BTN): $234.50
SB: $322.35
SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero has 4 5
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.00, fold, BB calls $3.00

Flop: ($11.00, 2 players) 9 5 6
BB checks, Hero bets $7.70, BB raises to $22.00, Hero calls $14.30

Turn: ($55.00, 2 players) T
BB bets $36.00, Hero calls $36.00

River: ($127.00, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets $77.00, BB raises to $484.35 and is all-in, Hero snaps it off with $94 to call?

[griffey24]

This seems like a...

"have a set... damn this river sucks. I don't wanna get jammed on, I'll check. Oh he bet pretty small.. he probably doesn't have a flush... I jam for value".. type spot to me.

Its not like he can expect us to bet this river with most of our range.

I'd call.. not fist pumping.

[Alexos]

he does not have worse. 75% w@sd that's pretty sick too, he clearly runs like god by hitting 7 outer coolers.

[Mr. Diamond]

This is really interesting. I feel like I wouldn't call this w/o nuts, so its pretty sick, if this is bluff. I would probably decide by timing, if he shoves quickly I would fold, otherwise crying call


edit: just want to add that I would play the flop same and I like smaller sizing on river (but I would bet little bit more, 83 or so)

[shakesss]

I would take a bet/3-bet ship line if villain might perceive me to be really aggro just because his c/r'ing range would be a lot wider and the added FE would make it a super sweet spot.. if not then i would play the flop same way..

Is folding the turn on this card bad? I would feel that we would only be drawing to the FD on the river since his range would have to be pretty strong to be betting this turn.

As played i would call it off just because it feels dirty to b/f this spot.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Fold, doesn't seem that close to me.

[IowaSkinsFan]

This seems like a...

"have a set... damn this river sucks. I don't wanna get jammed on, I'll check. Oh he bet pretty small.. he probably doesn't have a flush... I jam for value".. type spot to me.

I really don't think he's thinking this way. I think it's probably more like "I have a big flush and I don't think he's going to shove two pair/straight/set/lower flush over a bet so i'll c/r to try to stack him."

[jackvance]

This seems like a...

"have a set... damn this river sucks. I don't wanna get jammed on, I'll check. Oh he bet pretty small.. he probably doesn't have a flush... I jam for value".. type spot to me.

Its not like he can expect us to bet this river with most of our range.

I'd call.. not fist pumping.

He's not betting that small, so I'm not following this reasoning here..