Spew or good flop shove?

[BorisTheSpider]

Button ($27.62)
SB ($31.39)
BB ($47.37)
Hero (UTG) ($25)
MP ($25.68)
CO ($28.74)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, K
Hero bets $0.75, 2 folds, Button calls $0.75, SB raises to $3.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.80) 4, A, 7 (2 players)
SB bets $4.70, Hero raises to $21.60 (All-In)

Villain is loose and aggressive. 37/29. 3bets like a monkey (15%).

Do you shove the flop?

Spoiler: Show

SB calls $16.90

Turn: ($51) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($51) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Villain: shows [6h 5c] (a straight, Four to Eight)

[BorisTheSpider]

I've been thinking about this hand and I prefer check/call and let him bluff his stack off. Maybe shove turn, but more likely just c/c all 3 streets. On the other hand, it does need a plan from the start to do so, and it gives him the opportunity to draw out to any small pair or whatever with junk that he might fold at the flop. He might also fold 22/33/55/66 at the flop but get it in on a later street once he's committed. Thoughts?

[OngBonga]

Play against this guy as much as possible.

I'd probably 4bet pre, shove flop if he flats, call him if he shoves. As played I'd c/f flop.

[MadMojoMonkey]

The all-in push on the flop is a purely a bluff / bluff catcher given your holdings. As such, full stack commitment is dubious to me. That said, I think it probably worked. Your opponent probably did put you TPTK or better.

Hero got lucky that villain flopped an OESD and decided to gamble with only 8 outs. Villain got lucky on the river.

I'd tell the villain what a great call he made and how he must have known I was bluffing. Get him to make that play again, preferably against me.

[supa]

How many hands on villain. Any other reads before this hand.

Btw, I think spoilers suck. Can't avoid clicking on them and ruin the thread .

[BorisTheSpider]

Only 60 hands.

He showed 65s after a big 4bet squeeze earlier, 4bet Th8h and got it in on 5d9h4h, Raised 64s UTG and check/called 3 streets with it on 3J623.

Generally very aggro, pretty loose both preflop and postflop.

[Imthenewfish]

i don't really see much of a point in raising flop, i still don't really understand the protecting your hand concept very well

[lukem1990uk]

60 hands and your taking there stats as gospel no way near enough hands played with villian to even consider this kind of line there stats mean almost nothing at all, and overall i think this is a super spewy spot you musta been tilting pretty hard when you made this play!

Fold preflop after getting 3 bet find out more info and wait for a better spot patience..............

your not phil ivey or isildurr just yet stick to ABC not XYZ

[baudib]

60 hands and your taking there stats as gospel no way near enough hands played with villian to even consider this kind of line there stats mean almost nothing at all, and overall i think this is a super spewy spot you musta been tilting pretty hard when you made this play!

Fold preflop after getting 3 bet find out more info and wait for a better spot patience..............

your not phil ivey or isildurr just yet stick to ABC not XYZ

If you can't get a good read off someone after 60 hands you need to cut down on tables and pay attention.

This is what someone paying attention has learned after 60 hands:

He showed 65s after a big 4bet squeeze earlier, 4bet Th8h and got it in on 5d9h4h, Raised 64s UTG and check/called 3 streets with it on 3J623.

Folding KQs here would be idiotic, we don't need to find better spots than that. I'd 4-bet before even thinking about folding.

[BorisTheSpider]

i don't really see much of a point in raising flop, i still don't really understand the protecting your hand concept very well

I'm not protecting my hand, and anyway that's never a reason to bet. I'm betting to make a better hand fold, after calling his 3bet I can easily rep an ace here and if he'd had say a small PP here, he's likely folding. As it was, it turned out to be a thin value bet against a draw (I was about 53% favourite when the money went in).

[d0zer]

He might also fold 22/33/55/66 at the flop but get it in on a later street once he's committed. Thoughts?

He's not going to c-bet this flop and then just c/c a near PSB on the turn with some low pp.

Just call the flop, unless he's a mindless spewmonkey, he's not going to keep firing air into what really really looks like an ace. Also your shove reps nothing.

[Fnord]

Ni Han

[rpm]

if you think he is folding more than 63.3431% of the time then your shove has a positive expectation. it's actually slightly less than that because we can backdoor two pair and flushes against some of his range. but close enough.