[2NL] 2P against possible flush?

[Cobra_1878]

Not much to go on as it was early in the session. I had seen him limp/call with AJo UTG OOP, and he had called raises in a couple of hands with KJo & K8o

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1.66)
BB ($2.74)
UTG ($1.40)
MP ($2.24)
Hero (CO) ($2)
Button ($2.41)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q
UTG calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.19) 5, A, 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.12, UTG calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.43) Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.28, UTG calls $0.28

River: ($0.99) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.92 (All-In), Hero ???

Has he hit a flush there? I think I probably should have bet more on the Turn after hitting 2P but always worry about straights when hitting 2P with broadway cards ( is that too cautious? ) Have I priced him in all the way to continue on a FD?

[Miffed22001]

really close - but not a great price

Looks like KQspades but AT/Qt are big factors too

Dont get the open river push - that line makes me want to call a lot

[OngBonga]

I'd like to say fold but this is 2nl and I'm lying if I say I fold this. Can't call fast enough at these stakes. Yeah obv he has a flush often here, he also has A7 A5 AT and god knows what else because he's a 2nl limp/call donkey.

[bikes]

fold button is on the left

[surviva316]

How did he play postflop in the KJ/K8/AJo hands? This type of read affects everything down to why we're iso'ing (ie, what amount we should make the iso) in the first place. I mean, we're iso'ing regardless, but it's nice to know why and with what plan for exploitation.

I bet bigger on this flop, but this sizing's fine as there is a wide range of hands we beat that might call or fold depending on sizing.

Definitely bet turn bigger.

As played, just fold. If he felt like he had a hand he wanted to value bet for stacks on the turn, then he probably would have either shoved then to protect or he would just c/c down to trap us. I don't know why he would all the sudden decide to PSB donk on a card that kills his action.

So that mostly discounts value bets. From there you just have to decide if he's bluffing 33% of the time here. I'm guessing not.

[Cobra_1878]

How did he play postflop in the KJ/K8/AJo hands? This type of read affects everything down to why we're iso'ing (ie, what amount we should make the iso) in the first place. I mean, we're iso'ing regardless, but it's nice to know why and with what plan for exploitation.

I bet bigger on this flop, but this sizing's fine as there is a wide range of hands we beat that might call or fold depending on sizing.

Definitely bet turn bigger.

As played, just fold. If he felt like he had a hand he wanted to value bet for stacks on the turn, then he probably would have either shoved then to protect or he would just c/c down to trap us. I don't know why he would all the sudden decide to PSB donk on a card that kills his action.

So that mostly discounts value bets. From there you just have to decide if he's bluffing 33% of the time here. I'm guessing not.

Sorry if this sounds stupid but how do you figure I have to decide if he is bluffing 33% of the time? How do you come up with that figure?

[OngBonga]

Sorry if this sounds stupid but how do you figure I have to decide if he is bluffing 33% of the time? How do you come up with that figure?

We're getting 2:1 on our money, or thereabouts. That means we have to win 33% of the time to break even. Work it out... call three times, win it once, lose twice, what's our net profit?

2:1 is another way of saying 1 in 3, or 33%.

But surviva, does he have A7 in his range? I think so. So we don't need him to be bluffing as often as 33%, so long as there's hands we beat that he can do this with for value.

[Cobra_1878]

We're getting 2:1 on our money, or thereabouts. That means we have to win 33% of the time to break even. Work it out... call three times, win it once, lose twice, what's our net profit?

2:1 is another way of saying 1 in 3, or 33%.

But surviva, does he have A7 in his range? I think so. So we don't need him to be bluffing as often as 33%, so long as there's hands we beat that he can do this with for value.

Ah OK, thanks a lot. The problem with this is, all 2NL tables are set at fast speed so you get roughly 10 seconds to decide what to do. I don't think I could work that out quickly enough ( if it was a bit more difficult ) to decide what to do.

[OngBonga]

Well here's a pro tip for you... if someone bets the pot HU, you have 2:1.

[Cobra_1878]

Well here's a pro tip for you... if someone bets the pot HU, you have 2:1.

Haha, thanks, I will make sure I remember that one.