steal 79s, flop flush draw, turn more outs, plan?

[daven]

sb is 46-15 fish, 80% fold to flop cbet, small sample (30 hands)
bb is 14-8 nit, high fold to steal, 0% 3b so far, 67% fold to flop cbet
flop? turn?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($11)
MP1 ($41.25)
MP2 ($17.08)
MP3 ($24.40)
CO ($34.29)
Hero (Button) ($56.24)
SB ($16.15)
BB ($31.14)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 7
UTG bets $0.75, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3) K, J, 5 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $2.10, SB calls $2.10, BB calls $2.10, 1 fold

Turn: ($9.30) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, what's a hero to do?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'd probably check it back and take a free card here. It's still 3-handed OTT, and trying to semi-bluff 2 villains out of the pot is hard to do. There's always the chance that someone else has a bigger flush draw and you're in trouble. PLUS, taking a free card makes the betting OTF even more +EV.

Only card I'd be happy to play for stacks is to gin a non-diamond 6. Any diamond is probably a call or b/c. Obv. a pair OTR is no bet.

[Savy]

Can we not fold pre? Or is that me being a nit?

[Cobra_1878]

Fold pre.

Check and take a free card

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't think a fold is too nitty. I don't think a call is spazzy, either. I think SC's and S1G's play very well from the BTN. Considering SB is 46/15, I think it's more often a call than a fold.

I'd probably fold from CO, though. For me, SC's still play, but S1G's are not as strong against a single Villain. Now, if I had a good idea that the blinds were coming along without 3-betting, then S1G's go way up in value.

[WeldPhaser]

you folders are no fun... def flat here w/ the fish in the sb, the nit prob has some middling pair range. daven's prob been pretty active IP so it's gonna be hard for nit to c/f.

but now, i guess we have to check back. The fishes range is way too wide and not folding

[surviva316]

I think you're overestimating your fold equity when you call preflop. Really the only times it c/f's to you are when UTG has broadways, the flop comes low cards, SB misses and UTG decides it's not a good spot to cbet. In pretty much all other situations, UTG will cbet or it will be a terrible board for you yourself to steal on.

Other than that, a flopped pair won't really win us a lot of money. So that basically leaves us with the one plan to hit a flush/straight, win money, which is a specious enough plan when that's all you got only 100bbs deep, and I don't even think this is a dream spot to get paid with a flush/straight (UTG may be smart enough to play skittish with single pair in a 3way pot as UTG opener, SB won't always call along, SB will play insanely fit-or-fold, we're only 65bb's deep against SB, etc).

[jackvance]

I fold pre if there's a realistic chance my call will induce a squeeze. Otherwise, sometimes call sometimes fold. The more I have a read on people's postflop play, the more I am likely to call.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I think you're overestimating your fold equity when you call preflop. Really the only times it c/f's to you are when UTG has broadways, the flop comes low cards, SB misses and UTG decides it's not a good spot to cbet. In pretty much all other situations, UTG will cbet or it will be a terrible board for you yourself to steal on.

Other than that, a flopped pair won't really win us a lot of money. So that basically leaves us with the one plan to hit a flush/straight, win money, which is a specious enough plan when that's all you got only 100bbs deep, and I don't even think this is a dream spot to get paid with a flush/straight (UTG may be smart enough to play skittish with single pair in a 3way pot as UTG opener, SB won't always call along, SB will play insanely fit-or-fold, we're only 65bb's deep against SB, etc).

I see some inconsistency here.

[Carroters]

Meh preflop is kind of close I think. He looks fairly tame and fit or foldy so far and we're only 60 deep with him so there's an argument for folding. Can't be too bad to call though vs tight UTG nit ring range and a fish behind.

I'd just take a free one on the turn, think our immediate FE is pretty minimal and firing rivers when we miss can't be good vs the fish or the nits turn calling range. There's also some reverse implied odds at work here vs better flush draws.

[surviva316]

I see some inconsistency here.

Just because we will rarely get stacks in when we get it good doesn't mean that we will be put in good bluffing spots postflop, most especially on the flop. Basically, if we flop a flush, there's a very good chance we'll get paid for a street by at least one of these players because I just think that the flop is so rarely going to c/f to you. If you flop equity, though, and need 6 or 7 cards to complete your hand, then you'll rarely scoop the pot uncontested, yet by the time you complete, villain won't necessarily be looking to commit with 1 pair hands.

This hand serves as a decent example of the type of spots you get in postflop even when the board runs well. You feel like you can rarely scoop the flop on the turn with an unmade hand, and yet the times you make your hand, you still struggle to think of ways to get all the money in good.

I realize this is kind of an exceptionally tough spot because it's an exceptionally good board for their ranges and both players called the flop; however, the fact that 1) UTG has the initiative and 2) the villains have very different ranges makes it so that we'll rarely be faced with clear plays. So basically, UTG is in a much better position to win the uncontested pots, and we'll mostly only win the contested pots when we hit some good turns and rivers, and by the time we hit a great hand, villain will be considering folding.

This means that they will basically be accidentally playing perfectly against our hand; not folding to a couple of bets, but rarely getting stacks in.

I could be wrong about all of this, and if you have specific reads on villain that you can exploit (maybe he always folds single pair hands to raises postflop; maybe he way overcommits to single pair hands postflop; etc.) but barring that, we're always gonna be put in marginal bluffing spots at best even though we figure there's a decent chance they probably are willing to fold somewhere somehow.

[kickass]

Amen brother!

[jackvance]

It's pretty bad to bet this flop btw. You're gonna be bleeding money if you do stuff like this consistently.

[Carroters]

Yeah don't love the flop bet either. A free card looks pretty tantalising 4 way here. 3 way I think a bet is fine.

[jackvance]

4way pots play like this, the first 2 guys will always slowplay their made hands on flop and turn. The 3rd guy will only bet a strong hand. Checks can just as easily mean strength here, no need to blow up the pot with a flushdraw.