[5NL] KTo...river decision

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 30/24/6 over 101 hands.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $3.16
BB: $6.63
UTG: $12.52
Hero (CO): $5.00
BTN: $3.08

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has T K

fold, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, fold

Flop: ($0.50, 3 players) J T 8
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($0.50, 3 players) K
SB bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, fold

River: ($1.20, 2 players) 4
SB bets $1.05, Hero ???

What could villain have here? The flop is pretty wet so I think if he has 2P/set on flop he probably bets it?

Makes a bet on turn - I can beat AK/KQ, although I think it's unlikely villain overcalls pre with AK. Maybe he overcalled with AQ? Only other hand is Q9 but I don't think villains calls pre with that hand and I think he almost definitely leads the flop with it. Is villain leading out just taking a stab at the pot?

Near PSB on river, I have to beat now surely? Would he continue a bluff? There isn't a whole lot of hands I can beat but I don't like folding 2P to this line either...

Thoughts?

[griffey24]

Seems like a pretty easy flat on the river, when he can have JT/T8 value towning, and other hands that are bluffing (Axss, 56ss, 67ss, 8xss even).

[TNreg]

We have to be good here ~33% I believe. It's close but I think it becomes a much easier call if we think he'll bomb missed draws and play JT, T8, KQ-type hands this way.

[jackvance]

What could villain have here? The flop is pretty wet so I think if he has 2P/set on flop he probably bets it?

You are the PFRer, most people won't just start donking their sets/2p but check it to raiser, hoping he bets.

I'm more tempted to fold but at the same time I'm very tired and not really sure.

[FaZzBoy]

If anyone knows....is it a bad line to c-bet flop?

I understand that you are sandwiched between two players and don't have position but betting would eliminate cards from the sb's range (plus the chance of taking down the pot) which you have beat and if that is not the case you will have a better idea of range of his hands. However I also see that the board is fairly wet and his range of preflop calling hands may be suited to that. But i've been taught in micro stakes that I should be C-betting most of the times, perhaps since its not 1v1 but 1v2 (and sandwiched between the two players) it's not as plausible on a wet board. It may also be the case that the c-bet was determined by the stats of the BTN. I'm just curious because I would c-bet flop and if that line is incorrect I'd like to understand it better and not make that mistake in the future.

[TNreg]

^ we don't know anything about BTN... but be prepared to play a big pot if you do cbet since this board hits the range of all players involved.

[Carroters]

With these stacks I'm just raise/calling off the turn there's easily enough draws, and pair + draws in his range that aren't folding. He probably 3-bets AQ a lot given his stats and yeah we just have to be decently ahead here.

Vs a range containing the sets he can have, straights, all his two pairs and then draws and pair + draws we have roughly 60% equity. This continuing range is maybe slightly optimistic, but maybe not vs a non full stacked player at 5NL.

[TT, 88, JhJs, JcJs, JdJs, AQs, As9s-As2s, AhJh-Ah2h, AcJc, AdJd, KTs+, Ks9s, Q9s+, JTs, J8s, T8s+, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 7h6h, 6s5s, 6h5h, KTo+, QTo+, JTo]

Yeah I'd raise call off the turn. Calling gives a cheapish card to a lot of hands that beat you on some rivers and shut down on most others. Basically villain can play the river way better than you because you have close to a bluff catcher on all rivers where you don't improve and have no idea how much he bluffs missed draws.

We need to be good 31% on the river. I think it's kind of close. There just aren't too many combos of missed draws now that don't have SD value and we don't even know if he bluffs these. His worse value combos are also slim pickings compared to the rest of his value range and people won't always value bet JT T8 etc here on this scary texture. I'd fold. I feel like a huge nit but I think it's probably good.

Edit: Fuck it actually I'd just call. Like if we're wrong about his bluffing tendencies or it turns out he's just a spewtard then folding can be a big mistake, calling can't ever really be so just click call and expect to lose most of the time.

[Cobra_1878]

With these stacks I'm just raise/calling off the turn there's easily enough draws, and pair + draws in his range that aren't folding. He probably 3-bets AQ a lot given his stats and yeah we just have to be decently ahead here.

Vs a range containing the sets he can have, straights, all his two pairs and then draws and pair + draws we have roughly 60% equity. This continuing range is maybe slightly optimistic, but maybe not vs a non full stacked player at 5NL.

[TT, 88, JhJs, JcJs, JdJs, AQs, As9s-As2s, AhJh-Ah2h, AcJc, AdJd, KTs+, Ks9s, Q9s+, JTs, J8s, T8s+, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 7h6h, 6s5s, 6h5h, KTo+, QTo+, JTo]

Yeah I'd raise call off the turn. Calling gives a cheapish card to a lot of hands that beat you on some rivers and shut down on most others. Basically villain can play the river way better than you because you have close to a bluff catcher on all rivers where you don't improve and have no idea how much he bluffs missed draws.

We need to be good 31% on the river. I think it's kind of close. There just aren't too many combos of missed draws now that don't have SD value and we don't even know if he bluffs these. His worse value combos are also slim pickings compared to the rest of his value range and people won't always value bet JT T8 etc here on this scary texture. I'd fold. I feel like a huge nit but I think it's probably good.

Edit: Fuck it actually I'd just call. Like if we're wrong about his bluffing tendencies or it turns out he's just a spewtard then folding can be a big mistake, calling can't ever really be so just click call and expect to lose most of the time.

Haha, I love this post. Glad it wasn't just me that was a little torn on what to do.

Thanks for all the replies guys. I didn't really consider 2P/sets in villains range that hit the flop as he checked but obviously it's something I should keep in mind as all of you guys have mentioned them in villain's range.

[Carroters]

People auto check to the preflop raiser with just about everything. You can't reeally narrow his range when he checks the flop here unless you know he leads big hands.

[VoktorBlim]

Maybe he hit his flush? He's in the SB, so possibly calls with suited connectors or gap cards to see a cheap flop? Only one heart comes on the flop, but everybody checks so he gets a free card. Then another heart comes on the turn, and he decides to get aggressive here and bet out. Another heart on the river, makes his flush - hence the pot sized bet hoping you call?

[surviva316]

SB seems fairly aggressive; does he c/r flops more than the average 60bb'ing fish? If not, I'm vbetting the flop.

As played, turn flat is really bad. Sososososo much value to be had. We very rarely have 2 pair+ when we take this line, and we're facing so much pair+draw stuff that we miss a huge opportunity to allow both villains to make a mistake when we raise. Calling makes it so that no one's ever doing anything wrong ever.

[rpm]

if you called river i like every street

[jackvance]

I like a call too if I look at the hand today.