q9s as tpgk vs agg

[Zorkion]

Merge - $0.04 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 125.75 BB (VPIP: 37.77, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 1.22, Hands: 192)
UTG: 141.75 BB (VPIP: 8.00, PFR: 6.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 101)
UTG+1: 100.25 BB (VPIP: 9.68, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
MP: 9.25 BB (VPIP: 13.19, PFR: 9.03, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 146)
MP+1: 35 BB (VPIP: 9.52, PFR: 2.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
CO: 33.25 BB (VPIP: 47.73, PFR: 2.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)
BTN: 111 BB (VPIP: 23.88, PFR: 17.41, 3Bet Preflop: 6.85, Hands: 204)
Hero (SB): 120.5 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 Q

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 4 2 9
Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB

Turn: (14 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 10.5 BB, BB calls 10.5 BB

River: (35 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BB bets 17.5 BB, Hero?


This was a kinda weird hand I played recently. I'm especially interested in hearing about the bet sizing. thoughts?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Looks OK in a vacuum, which this isn't. This is another hand where you have almost 200 hands on a villain and you haven't posted any notes about him. You should start putting your opponents on a range for each street, and guessing how different bet sizes affect their continuing range. The best (most exploitative) sizing in any given situation is the sizing that gets the most EV from a villain's tendencies.

PRE sizing here can go up or down depending on how villain responds to blind v blind steals. Sizing post flop is impossible to analyze, 'cause you have way too many hands on Villain to be going with "default" values.

Fold river, obv.

[Zorkion]

Looks OK in a vacuum, which this isn't. This is another hand where you have almost 200 hands on a villain and you haven't posted any notes about him. You should start putting your opponents on a range for each street, and guessing how different bet sizes affect their continuing range. The best (most exploitative) sizing in any given situation is the sizing that gets the most EV from a villain's tendencies.

PRE sizing here can go up or down depending on how villain responds to blind v blind steals. Sizing post flop is impossible to analyze, 'cause you have way too many hands on Villain to be going with "default" values.

Fold river, obv.

what kind of things should I be paying attention to about my opps? or...what sort of notes should I be taking on opps?

[rpm]

sizes all look fine to me as "default" plays. now i fold the river

[MadMojoMonkey]

what kind of things should I be paying attention to about my opps? or...what sort of notes should I be taking on opps?

First of all, make rash assumptions about them and color code them within 2 orbits. Then feel free to alter those color codes as you play more hands with them and find that your first guess was incorrect. I'm not going to tell you what color means what... just make it up however you like.

For actual notes:
Just pay attention to all of your opponents and put them on ranges for each street, and any hand that goes to showdown that is something you didn't expect, make a note of it. Like,
3-bet OTT w/ TPTK
Shoved river with bottom pair
stationed down when flopped top set

Or whatever. Those might be too long and you can develop a short-hand.
It's important to take a note any time a villain does something you find surprising. These are the things you do not assume or have assumed incorrectly, and they're the things you need to remind yourself of.

Note: I play on Bovada, where notes do not persist between sessions, so I'm a bit haphazard about them myself.
I'm sure there are as many "best" ways to take notes as there are note-takers, so get others' opinions to help you brainstorm.

[bikes]

dunno why u checked unless u planned on c/fing

[kickass]

c/f river seems good to me.

[WeldPhaser]

like MMM said , and has mentioned in previous posts. you need reads on your opponents bro. hud stats are just one piece of the puzzle. JUst a example, but my notes look somethin like this

JJ: flatted in SB v BU open , c/r fl/and called 3b on Q7K board

[Zorkion]

how often do you guys actually reference past notes when in new situations vs opps? Or is it one of those things where just writing it down helps immensely

[Zorkion]

also, Im confused as to why everyone is suggesting this is an obvious fold. considering opps large vpip, couldnt he be doing this with a lot of 9x hands that we beat?

[MadMojoMonkey]

There's really not much you can infer about post-flop play from someone's VPIP.

Look at the board, Zorkion.

For your own good, read the article by spoonitnow I linked you to in the other thread. How to Analyze Calling an All In.
Then do the homework on this hand and put Villain on a range and tell me:
1) What are your pot odds OTR?
2) What is your equity against Villain's range?
3) Is a call +EV or -EV?

[Cobra_1878]

also, Im confused as to why everyone is suggesting this is an obvious fold. considering opps large vpip, couldnt he be doing this with a lot of 9x hands that we beat?

Because there will be a million better spots where you can stack villain off with a much better hand. No need to get creative with marginal hands against this villain.

[MadMojoMonkey]

NO. It's not about Hero having a "better hand" here. It's about the runout smashing Villain's range.

Because a 38% VPIP has every AX suited, SC, S1G, S2G and PP in it. The flush draw came in, and loads of stuff that hit the flop as 1-pair has made either 2-pair or a straight, even poorly played Ax that stationed 2 streets with overcards got there on the end.

[Cobra_1878]

NO. It's not about Hero having a "better hand" here. It's about the runout smashing Villain's range.

Because a 38% VPIP has every AX suited, SC, S1G, S2G and PP in it. The flush draw came in, and loads of stuff that hit the flop as 1-pair has made either 2-pair or a straight, even poorly played Ax that stationed 2 streets with overcards got there on the end.

I wasn't talking about this hand in particular, I was talking about our range in general.

[agnesamurphy]

also, Im confused as to why everyone is suggesting this is an obvious fold. considering opps large vpip, couldnt he be doing this with a lot of 9x hands that we beat?

Yes, it's true that weaker 9x hands are in his range. But, there are more hands in Villain's range that beat you. Do the pot odds and run the equity against that range, as MMM suggested. You'll see that there's only a few 9x hands, but three times as many that made a straight, flush, or two-pair on this river.

[Zorkion]

There's really not much you can infer about post-flop play from someone's VPIP.

Look at the board, Zorkion.

For your own good, read the article by spoonitnow I linked you to in the other thread. How to Analyze Calling an All In.
Then do the homework on this hand and put Villain on a range and tell me:
1) What are your pot odds OTR?
2) What is your equity against Villain's range?
3) Is a call +EV or -EV?

on the river, the range im giving him is: JJ-99,44,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,A8s,Ad7d,Ad6d,KdQd,KdJd, KdTd,K8s,Kd7d,Kd6d,QdJd,QdTd,Q8s,Qd7d,Qd6d,JdTd,J8 s,Jd7d,T8s,Td7d,A9o,K9o,Q9o,J9o,T9o

against this range, according to pokerstove, Ive got 30.8% equity. my pot odds on the river are 25%. Since 30.8>25, this call should be +ev. Granted, I accept that I might have made his range a little large, but at worst the call seems like it would be marginal.

Did I go horribly wrong somewhere here? Well, I mean I guess the general consensus is that I did, but where? I'm not seeing it..

[kickass]

At a glance a8s j8s t8s ??? And why would you expect t9 and j9 to bet the river?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Where are all the hands like
{ 66-22,ATs+,A6s-A2s,74s,64s+,52s+,42s+,32s,ATo+,A6o-A2o }

EDIT:
How do you include 44 in his range, but not 22,33,55, or 66?
You have left out all of the small pairs and SC's, S1G's and S2G's that Villain is going to have here.

And I'd like to echo Kickass here in questioning why you included so many hands that are not likely to even get to the river, much less bet the river.

[Zorkion]

alright, im looking back over my range and realizing its pretty awful. i must have been looking at a different hand or something o.O

[STILL_mkd]

You didn't have to check at the end, you have to make a raise like before, because if you check at the end he may bluff you to you can think that he has straight. So you had to make a raise and if he re-raised to you than you can go fold.

[daven]

block-fold or check-fold river