[25NL-ZOOM] JJ overpair on wet, paired board. Vbet this river?

[Pelion]

I'm just trying out this Zoom thing and still getting used to it.

Villain is pretty unknown after only 10 or so hands. Seems tightish so far. Is this an easy river value bet, or should I consider checking behind? I think most of his range here is missed draws, but the T should hit some of his straight draws, and I guess I should discount 6x since he didn't raise on such a wet board. $6 good?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $35.13 (140.5 bb)
SB: $23.72 (94.9 bb)
BB: $42.40 (169.6 bb)
UTG: $32.07 (128.3 bb)
MP: $102.86 (411.4 bb)
CO: $44.34 (177.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.70, CO folds, Hero calls $0.70, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.75) 8 6 6 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.25, MP calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.25) 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3, MP calls $3

River: ($10.25) T (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $6

[Savy]

Looks too thin to me. What are you expecting to get calls from?

[Pelion]

On second thoughts, I'm not sure any Tx straight draws make sense after raising pre and checking this flop. I'm not really sure what (if any) hands make sense played this way at all?

[Savy]

The only hand with a ten in it I'd imagine are QTs, KT (s/o?) and AT.

I can see villains doing this with some draws, maybe like 77+, A8s maybe. 88, TT expecting you to bet the river so he can raise and I think any 6x would raise the flop. I'd also expect 44 to fold the flop.

[Pelion]

Yeah I think it's too thin looking at it again. I'm 50/50 vs 66/88/Tx. And for every other random hand he can sometimes call, he probably sometimes folds on of the Tx.

[Savy]

I think he calls with loads of shit here btw. Is raising a hand like 79s not pretty marginal and what combos of ThXh are you giving him? T9+?

[griffey24]

You're so under-repped and fd bricks, I'm fist pump value betting this.
I like your sizing on all streets.

[Savy]

How does the flush draw not getting there help us in terms of value betting here?

[abelardx]

How does the flush draw not getting there help us in terms of value betting here?

He'll sometimes put us on a busted fd that can't give up and call very light.

[Savy]

He'll sometimes put us on a busted fd that can't give up and call very light.

With what exactly do you think he's going to call with that I haven't already included in my list. If you think villain is going to start calling us with AJo in this spot then that's just massively over adjusting. ATo probably folds at some point before here and if he has the Ah that blocks a huge part of our range that could do this.

[griffey24]

What better hands than JJ are ppl expecting to see here exactly? QQ+ is betting the flop, as is 6x.

Maybe he decides that 88/66 have the deck so crushed that he will take some tricky c/c line, but even that is not 100% and some of the time he will bet.

I expect him to get to this river with at most 3 combos better than us, so he just needs to call three times with 8x,77, some hero AK/AQ. If he gets to river with TT (3 combos) then he also gets there with 99 (6 combos).

[seven-deuce]

I calculated the EV of checking vs betting using a range similar to the one Griffey suggested.

Villain's range: {TT-66,A8s,AhKh,AdKh,AhKd,AhKs,AhKc,AsKh,AcKh}

Assuming villain check raises all hands that beat us and we never call a check raise, calls with all his worse pairs, and folds all his AK.

Then the EV of betting $6 = (0.24*10.25)+(0.52*16.25)+(0.24*-6) = $9.47

The EV of checking = 0.76*10.25 = $7.79

The EV gained by betting = $1.68

[griffey24]

He probably has more 8x in his range, cause A8 might be a hand that vbets sometimes, but stuff like 78, 89, T8 could be more likely to get into c/c mode.

Obviously if we have some strong reads that 140bb deep villain likes to go into c/c mode with all overpairs, this changes the hand significantly. But given no reads, I think the safe general assumption is that ppl are mostly not afraid of 6x trips and will cbet those.

[seven-deuce]

He probably has more 8x in his range, cause A8 might be a hand that vbets sometimes, but stuff like 78, 89, T8 could be more likely to get into c/c mode.

Obviously if we have some strong reads that 140bb deep villain likes to go into c/c mode with all overpairs, this changes the hand significantly. But given no reads, I think the safe general assumption is that ppl are mostly not afraid of 6x trips and will cbet those.

I know, you would expect AKhh to be in his c-betting range too since it's his best bluffing hand. Should we not expect him to be checking A8 nearly all the time, since it's not typically a hand you will be going for 3 streets of value with vs an unknown OOP?

[Carroters]

I know, you would expect AKhh to be in his c-betting range too since it's his best bluffing hand. Should we not expect him to be checking A8 nearly all the time, since it's not typically a hand you will be going for 3 streets of value with vs an unknown OOP?

Nope. This is more a case of you projecting what you think is optimal onto a random villain. Just because the hand can't get three streets on many run outs doesn't mean it's best to check flop with it. Loads of hands have 6 outs vs A8 flop and turn are probably the best 2 streets to bet if we are going for just 2 streets of value here.

Theory of the spot aside, most people will just bet that hand without thinking about any of this.

[griffey24]

Even if a hand only has one or two streets, I feel like most villains will start by betting the flop and then turn and check river (ie: if it only has two streets), as opposed to checking flop and then planning on betting turn and river or something.