Standard shove?

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is typical TAG, somewhat loose maybe.

I have plenty of equity to shove against a range of sets and overpairs, whether he always calls, or if he folds some of the smaller overpairs, it doesn't matter.

However, it seems like a high variance play this deep. Does anyone have any better ideas, or is this just ridic standard?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $25.70 (102.8 bb)
SB: $25.66 (102.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $39.34 (157.4 bb)
UTG: $25 (100 bb)
MP: $77.61 (310.4 bb)
CO: $36.06 (144.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 4 3 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.90, Hero raises to $2.75, MP raises to $9.80, Hero raises to $38.59 and is all-in

[Pelion]

Although there's a FD, it isn't a super wet board and it's quite easy for him to flat the lower overpairs when you c/r so I'm not sure he 3bets stuff like TT-QQ, and I'd expect even KK/AA to slow down a lot of the time. I think you may end up isolating yourself against his sets and super strong overpairs when he doesn't flat the c/r, which will leave you with very little fold equity (and not awesome pot equity) when you shove.

[BorisTheSpider]

I think you may end up isolating yourself against his sets and super strong overpairs when he doesn't flat the c/r, which will leave you with very little fold equity (and not awesome pot equity) when you shove.

Yeah, I agree but I don't see how to apply it to the hand. I don't think we can just flat the flop with so much behind when we have such a great draw - I wanna build a pot, so I can't miss the opportunity to raise.

So yeah, you're probably right that once he 3bets the flop I'm isolated with a really strong range, but I still don't see how I can use that information - my hand needs to see both the turn and river to realise it's equity, so I don't think I can flat the flop 3bet, because then there's a massive turn pot and not a lot over a pot sized bet left behind - it's gonna be real tough to play a brick turn esp. OOP, and if I do gin the turn my hand is so face-up I don't think I'm getting any more of his money, so flatting the flop 3bet sucks even when I make my hand.

Incidentally from his side of the hand, I like his flop 3bet sizing with a strong overpair, it doesn't leave me with so many great choices.

[Pelion]

Yeah, that's why I stopped short of suggesting an action. If he can be rebluffing here often then I think it's fine, but it looks like a really strong line from a 25NL TAG. I haven't done any actual math yet, but shoving over seems really -EV this deep. I'm actually tempted to fold once he 3bets...but that seems horrible and makes me think we shouldn't have c/r in the first place.

[BorisTheSpider]

I'm actually tempted to fold once he 3bets...but that seems horrible.

Yeah, I'm not sure I could bring myself to fold, but I did actually consider it - I really tanked on this hand. Perhaps it's just a marginal spot and there's nothing much to learn from it.

[Pelion]

I'm still not sure. It's not a bad board to c/r and barrel a lot when he calls with 9x, 77-JJ(-AA?), but there aren't that many flopped nut hands we can be doing this with and we probably have to fold when he 3bets.

Maybe this is just about dry enough that we can c/c the flop a lot with our draws/ sets/ mid pairs? (and look to c/r lots of turns).

[daven]

meh, i don't like check-raising here that much. As played you've still got over 30% vs his calling range when you shove and he's folding some and you rep real strong so yeah, sure, go for it.

[abelardx]

If you have a nut draw and they're letting you draw cheap I'd prefer to just call. The c/r is a strong move and should have a lot of fold equity so I'd reserve it for worse draws or missed turns when I feel villain is light.

[griffey24]

With these stacks I don't love c/r here. I think it's fine to c/c flop, you could very well have the best hand and he may bluff Q or A turn.

[Savy]

Call the flop. Building a pot isn't a legit reason to raise unless you think villain is going to make such huge mistakes later on.

As for saying that it's a really marginal spot and there isn't a huge amount to learn from it, calling is just miles better here. So I'd definitely take that from teh hand. Maybe you want to be c/r your weaker draws because then we are at least likely to fold out a large enough chunk of his range if he's cbetting fairly dry boards too much.

As for whether the shove is good after being he raises I have no idea, but it's a pretty easy equity calc so have fun

[Pelion]

With these stacks I don't love c/r here. I think it's fine to c/c flop, you could very well have the best hand and he may bluff Q or A turn.

How are you playing sets/mid pairs here out of interest?

[Pelion]

meh, i don't like check-raising here that much. As played you've still got over 30% vs his calling range when you shove and he's folding some and you rep real strong so yeah, sure, go for it.

I'm not really convinced by this. With the size of the shove we are committing, we need villain to fold 45% when we shove (with 30% equity). I don't see any way villain can be 3bet/folding almost half the time.

[BorisTheSpider]

Actually, just a minor point, but we have 36% equity against QQ+ and the sets, so he has to fold 17% of the time for the shove to be breakeven.

However, I'm coming round to c/c flop.

[Pelion]

I'm working this roughly, but I don't think I'm wrong :s

If all the monies go in, the pot will be roughly twice our stack, so: $80
We have 30% equity (ish) so we expect to get back $24
We have $36 in our stack when we shove, so shoving loses us $12 on average when called.

When villain folds, we win the $14 in the pot.

So we are risking 12 to win 14. This is pretty close to 1:1 so we need him to fold about half the time.

12/(12+14) = 46%

[BorisTheSpider]

Yeah, you're right - I didn't calculate my remaining stack at time of shoving correctly.

Pot is 14.15 when I shove. I have 35.84 behind. I have 36% equity.

0.36 * ($14.15+$35.84) + 0.64 * -$35.84 = -$4.94

I need 26% folds to break even. I don't think that's realistic.

[griffey24]

How are you playing sets/mid pairs here out of interest?

Mid-pairs c/c.. and sets probably c/r more often than c/c.

I don't care THAT much to balance in this spot deep. Villain will perceive that our c/r range will have FD's in it so I'd rather be pretty polarized in this spot. Probably c/r overcards (AT/AJ/KQ, and sets) and rest of my range c/c. Playing deep OOP sucks.