Table full of stations, drawy flop - good overbet spot with a set?

[BorisTheSpider]

I very rarely overbet, at least not on the flop, so I thought I'd post this and see what everyone thinks - good spot for it, or more profitable to just pot it? Perhaps if I am going to overbet here, it needs to be bigger?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $66.79 (267.2 bb)
SB: $30.14 (120.6 bb)
BB: $10.38 (41.5 bb)
UTG: $50.76 (203 bb)
MP: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
CO: $36.60 (146.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7 7
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, CO raises to $1.10, Hero calls $1.10, SB calls $1, BB calls $0.85, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($5.50) T 7 A (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets $6.75

[griffey24]

Meh it's ok, but some ppl like making plays against late position bettors when it's all checks. If you overbet you kind of kill their ability to do that.

I would just bet some regular size that all my other Ax hands would bet. It's not really THAT drawy of a flop necessarily. Could be worse for sure!

[kickass]

I dont see much point. Getting stacks inside with this big of a preflop pot should be easy.

[Savy]

If you're going to do this I prefer just shoving.

[jackvance]

Just bet $4.

[seven-deuce]

I don't like it I think you are encouraging them to play correctly against you the majority of the time, I'd bet a normal amount here.

[BorisTheSpider]

Yeah, I knew there was a reason why I hardly every overbet - every time I do it, either I (or everyone else) think it sucks! Thanks for the replies.

What I really didn't want, given how many people were in the pot, was a clusterfuck where I bet normal then as soon as one person calls it's like a domino effect of everyone getting priced in to see the turn, but there's two solutions to that - just shove like Savy said, or bet normal and hope someone makes a move like Griffey said.

[griffey24]

I really don't think shoving $65 has any place in this hand.

Just bet normal and don't play afraid of getting outdrawn. If you clearly get outdraw then just find a fold later in the hand if need be, but you can't bet a sub-optimal amount just cause you're afraid of getting outdrawn.

I mean... I am loving getting 3 callers to my bet here. Are you kidding, you have a SET... and you DONT want 3 callers??

[BorisTheSpider]

Oh yeah, my mistake, didn't look back at the stack sizes - definitely hate shoving here, maybe if we were 100bb deep at the start of the hand.

Well, sure, I like getting multiple callers with a set, but I guess it probably is a spot where as you said I need to be able to make a tough fold in a big pot if necessary, and although I'd like the callers, I wouldn't be delighted about so many cards out there seeing the turn.

My name is Boris, and I have monsters under the bed...

[Pelion]

Shoving is so much worse than smaller overbetting here. I'd be pretty tempted to overbet this heads up (with some bluffs as well), but as others have said, the pot is big enough that it isn't really needed here.

[Carroters]

I'd just c/f the flop. With so many players there's a good chance someone has 3 clubs in the hole.

[MadMojoMonkey]

You have a strong value hand in position in a 5-handed pot. There's 2 broadways and a FD out there, so plenty of hands hit that flop pretty strong. My guess is that at least one of 'em hit it strong enough that they're NEVER folding to ANY bet. So stick it to 'em w/ an overbet, since they'll call anything and you have fat value.

Not to argue with the crowd, but I think it looks good. I'd make this play almost every time I was in this spot, but I'd bet closer to a 1.5x PSB. The last time I suggested this, I got a lot of flak about not having a balanced range... but the thing to remember is I'm betting that much any time I'm not checking on a board like this, which is pretty slim. 5-handed, I'm not considering TPTK a betting hand; it's a bluff catcher more than anything, and not too much reason to bluff catch in 5-handed pots.

The number of people who actually have an overbetting strategy in the BC is near 0. You're super-unlikely to get any love from the BC when you post a hand where you overbet the flop. That doesn't mean anything here, because the response is coming from a crowd who basically never overbets a flop, so they never like it when they see it. That doesn't mean that overbets are always bad, it means that they're not an essential part to beating the micros.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'd just c/f the flop. With so many players there's a good chance someone has 3 clubs in the hole.

Wait, what? Who said that?

Hero is IP, so c/f isn't even an option.

Hero has great equity against even a made flush here. ???

EDIT: 3 clubs in the hole?

You got me.

[kickass]

Im playing 2nl at the min overbetting is my breads and my butters when I need to get stacks in or villains ranges are inelastic as they are mostly in this case but getting stacks in with normal bets is fucking easy why convince folks to hero fold id like to get as many calls as possible gutters oesd top pairs flush draws all of it.

Im drunk btw

[Pelion]

Not to argue with the crowd, but I think it looks good. I'd make this play almost every time I was in this spot, but I'd bet closer to a 1.5x PSB. The last time I suggested this, I got a lot of flak about not having a balanced range...

It's nothing to do with not having a balanced range. You will have lots of combos of weak draws on this flop (e.g. gutshots) so it should be very easy to balance here, especially if you are saying you aren't doing this with less than a set (so 77 and TT).

The reason I don't like overbetting is because you don't need to overbet with your strong hands to get all of the money in (even if just one of them calls down), and you don't gain any fold equity against marginal hands when you have your air since they will fold anyway multiway.

[BorisTheSpider]

Wait, what? Who said that?

Hero is IP, so c/f isn't even an option.

He meant fold in position if no-one else bet it. Solid move IMO.

[Pascal]

You have a strong value hand in position in a 5-handed pot. There's 2 broadways and a FD out there, so plenty of hands hit that flop pretty strong. My guess is that at least one of 'em hit it strong enough that they're NEVER folding to ANY bet. So stick it to 'em w/ an overbet, since they'll call anything and you have fat value.

Not to argue with the crowd, but I think it looks good. I'd make this play almost every time I was in this spot, but I'd bet closer to a 1.5x PSB. The last time I suggested this, I got a lot of flak about not having a balanced range... but the thing to remember is I'm betting that much any time I'm not checking on a board like this, which is pretty slim. 5-handed, I'm not considering TPTK a betting hand; it's a bluff catcher more than anything, and not too much reason to bluff catch in 5-handed pots.

The number of people who actually have an overbetting strategy in the BC is near 0. You're super-unlikely to get any love from the BC when you post a hand where you overbet the flop. That doesn't mean anything here, because the response is coming from a crowd who basically never overbets a flop, so they never like it when they see it. That doesn't mean that overbets are always bad, it means that they're not an essential part to beating the micros.

Interesting post. I think the problem is how strong over-bets are perceived. Our dream scenario here is a lot of callers, or a call then a shove, etc. We're looking to get it in against as many people as possible. While ranges may be inelastic when we're betting up to say pot, the higher over pot you get the more elastic they'll get even against fish.

Betting 1.5x pot anytime a ridiculously drawy board is checked to you with 3 players left to act seems like a quick way of burnnig through money if you're doing it for "balance"

[MadMojoMonkey]

Betting 1.5x pot anytime a ridiculously drawy board is checked to you with 3 players left to act seems like a quick way of burnnig through money if you're doing it for "balance"

-.-
... which is why I explicitly stated that's neither what I'm doing nor why I'm doing it in the 2nd paragraph.

[Pascal]

I am hell of confused by what you posted then. Did you mean that you're nearly always checking, but when you're not you're betting 1.5x pot always? And you're only betting really strong hands? So you're checking back AK on this board?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Did you mean that you're nearly always checking, but when you're not you're betting 1.5x pot nearly always? And you're only betting really strong hands? So you're checking back AK on this board?

Yes, this.

[Pelion]

I'm definitely betting AK here. There are so many ways to have a draw or a worse Ax here, and not all that many ways to beat us. Giving a free card 5 way when there is fat value to be had just seems suicidal.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I feel like I spewed a lot of munnies when I was considering TPTK a value hand in 4+ handed pots*, although I have to admit TPTK IP on an A-high board is lot safer than when there could be overpairs in the mix.

*This could be a results-oriented conclusion based on some run-bad, but I've been quite happy with the adjustment.

[rpm]

i'd overbet lead if we were SB OOP to 3-4 fish on this board. in this spot i'd just go somewhere between 3/4 and pot

[Micro2Macro]

why the absolute fuck do you guys want to over-bet and get zero value by folding out everyone's WEAK RANGE

if you are betting a size that is making Ax scared to call, you are really screwing this hand up.

YOU ARE ON THE BUTTON, YOU HAVE THE ABILITY TO EXTRACT MAXIMUM VALUE BUT YOU ARE COMPLETELY THROWING IT AWAY. CAPS FOR EMPHASIS ON COMPLETELY BUTCHERING THIS HAND SO YOU NEVER DO IT AGAIN

[Micro2Macro]

and seriously guys run your equity against a range of draws.... then come back into this thread and tell me you want to make those draws fold.

[surviva316]

There's a saying among live players: "Winning a little is better than losing a lot."

Don't be a live player.

[griffey24]

why the absolute fuck do you guys want to over-bet and get zero value by folding out everyone's WEAK RANGE

if you are betting a size that is making Ax scared to call, you are really screwing this hand up.

YOU ARE ON THE BUTTON, YOU HAVE THE ABILITY TO EXTRACT MAXIMUM VALUE BUT YOU ARE COMPLETELY THROWING IT AWAY. CAPS FOR EMPHASIS ON COMPLETELY BUTCHERING THIS HAND SO YOU NEVER DO IT AGAIN

+1

Seriously just do the EV calculations of overbetting vs making a normal bet. You'll have to make a lot of assupmptions, like what % of the time you'll win one or two streets of Ax with a regular sized bet, what % of time you'll win money vs draws, lose money vs draws, re-draw on villain by boating etc etc.

You can do this for both regular sized bet and overbets and see which one has a higher EV.

It's already VERY obvious to me that overbetting WILL NOT have a higher EV, but you can try to work through the assumptions and math.

[MadMojoMonkey]

What happened to the tone of this thread?

[Micro2Macro]

the tone finally got pushed into the proper direction, motha fucka

[BorisTheSpider]

why the absolute fuck do you guys want to over-bet and get zero value by folding out everyone's WEAK RANGE

if you are betting a size that is making Ax scared to call, you are really screwing this hand up.

YOU ARE ON THE BUTTON, YOU HAVE THE ABILITY TO EXTRACT MAXIMUM VALUE BUT YOU ARE COMPLETELY THROWING IT AWAY. CAPS FOR EMPHASIS ON COMPLETELY BUTCHERING THIS HAND SO YOU NEVER DO IT AGAIN

Thanks M2M. I ran my equity as you suggested, and thought about what you said about their weak range - here's what I came up with: I promise, in order to avoid further caps, never to do it again.