25nl Zoom FR - Turn Woes

[caddie444]

Main villain and original opener is playing 21/15 with a 22% open from MP. He's folding to 3Bets ~60%

So this hand I decide to 3Bet to hopefully just collect all that dead money. Can I get some thoughts on this? Who just flats in this spot?

On the flop I figure to have the best hand most of the time, so I bet slightly less than half pot for value/protection, and he calls.

Questions:

1) Hows the flop cbet?

2) What is my turn plan? (will give thoughts after)

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

Button ($54.28)
SB ($28.69)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($15.78)
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($88.37)
MP2 ($25.81)
MP3 ($10.55)
CO ($96.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, MP3 calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP2 calls $3.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.60) A, 9, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, MP2 calls $4.50

Turn: ($18.60) 6 (2 players)
Hero's plan is?

[abelardx]

He definitely plays AK this way, but with the half pot cbet, he's probably not convinced you have an A. So he could be calling one with JJ or QQ. I'd bet again and if he calls again I'm done. Or you could c/c the turn and c/f the river. If you check the turn and he checks it back, I'd c/c or bet the river.

In other words, if he wants to bloat the pot, we're no good. But if he just wants to get to showdown, then we're probably good about half the time, and I wouldn't mind another bet going in.

[BorisTheSpider]

I'd just call pre - this is the kind of spot I used to 3bet all the time and get myself in these situations, actually - your hand is plenty strong enough to call with, especially multi-way.

40% of a 22% opening range here is real fishy looking, I'll assume he doesn't flat AA/KK/AK because most people won't - [QQ-99, ATs-AQs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, QJo, KQo+, AJo-AQo]

OTF if he flopped a set he's expecting all the money to go in and the board isn't super drawy so he can flat, I'll say the same for ATs, he flats QQ/JJ as well because he has showdown value and doesn't believe you, flats AQ, flats AJ.

I don't know whether or not to think he'll call with a gutter here - the 3bet calling range I've given him seems quite fishy, but otoh his overall stats look kind of reggy, so I'm going to assume he won't just call with a gutter.

I don't think he's got too much to gain raising his QJ here, so we'll say he flats that. So he can get to the turn with [QQ-JJ, TT, 99, QJs, QJo, AJo, AQo, ATs, AJs, AQs]

Of that range, 17% crushes us (sets and 2 pairs). 33% of it is AQ/AJ and I think if we shove the turn we stand a reasonable chance of making AQ fold, and we basically always push AJ off a chop.

QQ and JJ are gonna fold the turn anyway, QJs and QJo are all we can actually bet for value against, and with only just under a pot sized bet left on the turn, we can't make any sort of meaningful turn bet and have anything left over for the river (to push AQ/AJ off).

Soooo...

It looks kind of close. The hands we can value bet make up about 30% of his range (QJo, QJs) and so do the hands we can push off a chop or bluff (AJo, AJs, AQo, AQs).

QJ has quite a bit of equity, not so bad if we make that fold. If we shove for just under pot needing about half folds for that to be profitable, well - if he folds AJo/AJs/QJ he folds 43%, if he folds half his AQ combos that comes up to 52%, you weren't getting any more money from QQ/JJ anyway so it's not a disaster if he folds them too.

I think I just shove the turn.

[abelardx]

Upon reflection I don't really like my comments because the pot is big and we're practically committed at this point which sucks. But that is how I'd play it if it wasn't a bloated 3bet pot. So I think 3betting was a mistake. In general I think 3betting good but not premium hands is a mistake because it folds out a lot of the range we want to play a hand against and turns our hand into a bluff. Folding AJ preflop here in a full ring game is an option too.

As played I agree with Boris that we should shove the turn. It's not a great spot, but with 1 psb behind and tpgk, I don't see what else you can do. That this does seem like our best move here only highlights the preflop mistake.

[Cobra_1878]

Yeah I am flatting pre for sure, we have a hand that has really good potential in multi-way pot.

So this hand I decide to 3Bet to hopefully just collect all that dead money

This makes it sound like you have turned your hand into a bluff already and I'm not sure why you would want to do that. It's not like he folds to 3bets a whole lot.

Cbetting this flop a little bigger as well, half pot isn't enough if you're trying to protect your hand.

[The Bean Counter]

Meh, I can't think of many flops we're happy with or going to get paid on when we flat and I'd rather flat with a pp or sc. Therefore seems like a good spot to squeeze to me. Either that or fold.

As played, I don't think the cbet is for value or protection particularly. I don't see worse calling unless you have reason to believe villain will float the flop in a 3bp and we're not really scared of any potential 2-outers.

On turn, I'd likely just nit up and c/f on this brick without decent post-flop reads/stats.