50NL Zoom FR - I got triple barrelled

[caddie444]

So here villain is playing 19/14 with a 7% 3bet, opening 26% of his buttons, and cbetting 86% flop, 91% turn total.

Preflop, I don't think 3betting here is as good as calling, but would like to hear thoughts on this, as his fold to 3bet stat is 45%

I just moved up to zoom 50nl, and I've been making copious notes as I play, but don't currently have any on this player, so just stats to go by.

I expect him to cbet flop, so I decide that since I'm way ahead of his range to just call and let him fire again. I considered c/r'ing, but I think I would rather do that with my straight draws and Ax type hands instead and let him just keep firing on the turn.

Well the turn comes and it pairs the 8 and he fires again. I decided to call because I don't think there is much point raising, if he has an 8 he isn't folding, and he probably calls down all other hands that have Qx crushed.

When he then bets the river for 1/2 pot, I then began to question everything I did in the hand, and I felt like I was just about to pay off a better hand, since the only value hand I could beat is like Q-10, Q-9, which I'm not sure he would bet 100% of the time on the river.

Questions:

1) How are my thought processes for preflop, flop and turn?

2) Is there any way we could find a fold on the river vs this guy?



PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Button ($66.18)
Hero (SB) ($50)
BB ($70.13)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($61.92)
MP1 ($109.09)
MP2 ($27.88)
MP3 ($208.01)
CO ($40.17)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, Q
6 folds, Button raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.50) Q, 3, 8 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, Button bets $3, Hero calls $3, 1 fold

Turn: ($10.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

River: ($21.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $11.50, Hero???

[abelardx]

His line doesn't make a lot of sense unless he has AQ, KQ, QJ, an 8, something that beats you. The average player probably wouldn't turn their weaker made hands into a bluff this way. So it really all comes down to whether he's a level 0 thinker or not. If he's not he knows you have a Q and can't expect you to fold it. But his stats indicate more of an auto-betting non-thinker.

I like a call with his stats and esp since the pot is small. He's giving you a good price and someone who barrels that much has some air in their range. Then take a note regardless.

Here's your hand otr vs equilab's top 25%:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Qd8s3c8hJc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 20.87% 19.57% 1.30% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
MP3 79.13% 77.83% 1.30% { KdQs }

[d0zer]

The equity vs top 25% is pretty irrelevant by the time we get to the river, this spot has everything to do with villain's postflop tendencies and the fact that it's a LP regwar. Villain has pretty loose stats for FR, but there's no draws which makes me want to fold, but his cbet stats are huge, and his bet sizing isn't particularly scary which makes me want to call, he could be vbetting a worse queen. If it was a tighter reg betting bigger we could find a fold on the river but call, note etc.

[BorisTheSpider]

Preflop, I like a call. He doesn't open so many buttons, so I don't think you have too much chance of getting a 3bet called by worse pre even given positions, and even if you do get called by something dominated, he'll be unlikely to put much more in the pot postflop unless he has you beat.

His cbet stats look aggressive until you put them in the context of nitty preflop stats, so I don't think we can call the river.

C/R flop doesn't really look good here even against someone nitty without many ways to make something nutted. I certainly don't think you can c/r KQ on this flop for value without significant history, and I don't like turning KQ into a bluff when you're most likely ahead of his range.

I think it's debatable whether you're ahead of his turn barrelling range, so I don't mind calling the turn, but I think you just have to fold the river.

[d0zer]

Boris wants to fold a hand?

[caddie444]

Preflop, I like a call. He doesn't open so many buttons...

His cbet stats look aggressive until you put them in the context of nitty preflop stats, so I don't think we can call the river.

If he is opening 26% of his buttons that is an extremely wide range of hands and not at all nitty

[d0zer]

oh just noticed his fold to 3b stat is 45%. If that's over even a halfdecent sample then he's absolutely defending far worse than KQ, but I'd still look at his 4b stats to see if he's calling a lot or 4betting a lot. Calling isn't terrible pre obv but unless your 3bet % is absurdly low I think we should 3bet for value.

[griffey24]

Getting this price I often call, but I expect to be shown AQ+ reasonably often, and is just sizing it small because he's marginally afraid of the 8x but still wants value from AQ-AA I'd imagine.

[BorisTheSpider]

If he is opening 26% of his buttons that is an extremely wide range of hands and not at all nitty

Yeah but isn't that nitty for a button open at FR - I mean, I know it's FR, but 25% still seems kind of tight on the button no?

[BorisTheSpider]

Boris wants to fold a hand?

I'm just trying out this new button I found.