Two barrels from reasonably decent reg

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is a reasonably decent reg so far as I know so far, 25/20/6 and I haven't seen him do anything wierd over 250 hands or so. I just noticed he's sitting a little short here, but he might just have it set up to top up at 95bb or something.

He could just decide to stab at the turn when the ace comes, and take another go on the river when the diamonds come in, but his river bet looks kind of value sized, and I also don't really expect him to have much without some showdown value after cold-calling pre then betting the turn.

Should I be able to find a fold on the river?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $18.29 (182.9 bb)
SB: $18.02 (180.2 bb)
BB: $9.55 (95.5 bb)
UTG: $10.60 (106 bb)
MP: $32.23 (322.3 bb)
CO: $13.75 (137.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A K
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, SB folds, BB calls $0.80, CO folds

Flop: ($2.15) 6 8 J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.15) A (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($4.15) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $2.50

[griffey24]

You're getting 2.66:1, you need to be good 27% of the time.

I would focus on more marginal spots that come up more often than making hero folds in 3b pots with TPTK to very little heat.

[BorisTheSpider]

Yeah, thanks. Until someone better tells you that though, it's easy to think this might be a pretty bad call - I guess it's not.

[griffey24]

I think if villain bet closer to pot, or like overbet the river then it would be a much tougher spot.

I just don't see a hand that we should be worried about using this sizing. MAYBE AJ is betting this small cause it's now worried about backdoor diamonds, but that's all that makes sense really.

I think given his half pot bet on the turn there is even room for a turn value raise.

[abelardx]

I like a call as played. You could also raise the turn. I've been burned several times letting people buy a card cheap. These days, unless it's a pot control issue, which it's not here, I'm not letting a street go by with a half pot bet when I have tptk.

[OngBonga]

I'm pretty much always betting the flop when I 3bet AK and get HU. As played, pretty easy call, griff sums up why better than I could.

[The Bean Counter]

Call it down. Villain cold calls pre with JJ/QQ/AK/AQ in all likelihood given stats and we have more than enough odds to call, even if we strip out QQ/AQ.

Looks to me like you were at a point in this hand that I find myself in sometimes i.e. where you have been shown the nuts so often when you have absolute strength and the pot odds to call that you then begin to think about folding incorrectly in similar spots.

[griffey24]

Just think long and hard about what those pot odds you're getting truly mean.

That you made this call once and won, but then lost the last 3 times you were in this spot (still almost break-even, winning at a 25% clip). Now you stubbornly called here and finally won again, so you won 2 out of 5 times (40%) making it MUCH better than break-even.

Sure small sample size, but 27% is insanely small when you really think about it, for this quality of hand.

[Pascal]

I like a call as played. You could also raise the turn. I've been burned several times letting people buy a card cheap. These days, unless it's a pot control issue, which it's not here, I'm not letting a street go by with a half pot bet when I have tptk.

I'm not raising turn, we'll just fold out everything worse

[abelardx]

In my games at 10 nl a reg is not folding a good ace or a fd to a second postflop bet esp if the raise amounts to one flop psb or slightly bigger. It might even induce a (semi-) bluff 3bet. A fish would never fold any ace or two diamonds and probably continue with a jack or straight draw.

The main point is that we now have the nut one pair hand and the board just got a lot wetter without completing any draws. It is time to get value as much as possible.

10 nl is crazy. Really people do insane stuff all the time even guys with taggy stats. Good made hand on wet board with no completed draws = get as much action as possible.