Reasoning Okay?

[KevinsKaotic]

Merge - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players


SB: $2.24
BB: $5.53
Hero (UTG): $4.72
BTN: $5.25

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has 8 8

Hero raises to $0.10, fold, SB calls $0.08, fold

Flop: ($0.24, 2 players) 5 4 6
SB checks, Hero bets $0.14, SB calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.52, 2 players) 5
SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, SB raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.20

River: ($1.32, 2 players) 9
SB bets $0.88, fold


Villain VPIP 38 PFR 11 over 239 Hands

On the flop when he calls my bet I think I am ahead, I am thinking he has some type of pair

On the turn when he min raises me I am really thinking he has A5 suited, its hard for me to think he has 78 because I have two 88 and its unlikely he calls from SB with 23 or 73, I call because it's a good price and I still have outs to win

On the river I feel like he is betting for value so I just give up... thoughts?

[abelardx]

Your reasoning is good.

Two things:

1. When using implied odds to justify a call make sure you do an approximate equity calc to make sure it's OK. Here it's OK but did you do the math? How many outs do you have? Do you know the rule of four and two?

2. Be wary of giving your opponent too much credit for the one obvious hand that beats you. What are all the kinds of hands you think villain could have here including bluffs and hands he overvalues? About how many beat you and how many don't?

Here's a slightly better thought process for this hand:

I bet the flop because I have an overpair and I'm good most of the time. He calls. So he has a hand he likes, probably overs or better.

I bet the turn and he raises. Now I put him on something he thinks is a big hand, something that can beat top pair, like an overpair, straight, or full house. Most all of those hands beat me. So I should fold unless I have good implied odds to draw.

I have six outs, four to make a straight and two to make eights full. Six outs on the turn gives me 12% equity, so I'm a 7:1 dog. The raise was .20 so I need to win 1.40 on average every time I hit one of my outs in order for the call to be breakeven. There's already 1.12 in the pot. So that shouldn't be a problem. I call.

I miss on the river. So I give up.

[OngBonga]

I'm calling river. Nearly 3:1, we only need to be good around 35% of the time to break even. Our turn bet was weak and villain may think we're betting ace high.

And it looks like he's trying to rep one combo. His bet sizing makes me want to call that little bit more.