Turn this into a bluff on the river?

[BorisTheSpider]

Only 10 hands on villain, 20/20 so far, sitting a bit short.

On the flop, it could be a fishy "feeler" bet, but I feel more like he'd lead bigger with anything he's value betting, so when BTN folds I raise for value and to charge his draws that he can be blocker betting. When he just flats I definitely think a big part of his range is draws, and if he does hold a K it seems unlikely he has me beat.

I bet the turn smallish for value and protection, and when he flats again I feel like he's not really too strong here, it's very unlikely he held a hand as strong as mine on the flop, but, there is a distinct possibility he holds AhXh and just got there on the turn.

So I shove the river. He only has like a 3/4 pot sized bet behind - it might be ambitious expecting him to fold a weak ace, but I have shown a lot of strength up to that point.

Do you think just checking the river down is best, or do you agree that quite a bit of his range is the nut heart draw that improved to beat me on the turn? If so, do you think it's overambitious expecting an unknown who looks a bit fishy to fold a weak ace here?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $14.43 (144.3 bb)
SB: $26.41 (264.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $47.41 (474.1 bb)
UTG: $11.10 (111 bb)
MP: $9.43 (94.3 bb)
CO: $10.05 (100.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.35, CO folds, BTN calls $0.35, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.10) 8 K 6 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1.50, MP calls $1

Turn: ($4.10) A (2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP calls $2

River: ($8.10) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.60

[griffey24]

Would rather c/c vs his FD's, bricked straight draws than turn it into a bluff. It's not like some floated Axhh/AQ will fold. You won't get better to fold.

[Cobra_1878]

What makes you think he is fishy? Just because he is sitting short? 20/20 over 10 hands doesn't seem that fishy to me.

I seriously doubt you're getting any better hands to fold here as well. Not quite sure why you decided to turn your hand into a bluff.

[BorisTheSpider]

What makes you think he is fishy? Just because he is sitting short?

Yeah, I mean he can be a shortstacker that's won a pot or two, but I'd expect him to either fold or jam over my flop raise in that case.

[Cobra_1878]

Yeah, I mean he can be a shortstacker that's won a pot or two, but I'd expect him to either fold or jam over my flop raise in that case.

Also, it might be best to save your bluffing when you have more solid reads.

[griffey24]

Looking at your turn bet as a bluff is thinking about things the wrong way. It definitely can't be a bluff.

Turn bet is a value bet for sure.

[abelardx]

If he has the ace you don't want to bet the river because he will probably just call. If he has a busted draw you don't want to bet because he'll just fold. I like a river check/call. If you do bet the river, it's more of a value bet against KJ hands in which case I'd bet smaller like 1/3 to 1/2 pot.

[BorisTheSpider]

Looking at your turn bet as a bluff is thinking about things the wrong way. It definitely can't be a bluff.

Turn bet is a value bet for sure.

Yeah, I agree - I didn't mean to imply the turn bet was for anything other than value. The river, I shoved as a bluff against a weak ace.

[griffey24]

What weak aces do you expect him to have? Only Axhh makes sense, and some ppl might even 3b those on the flop.

So you're betting to fold some few Ax combos he won't have (and if he does, that he won't fold), as opposed to checking to maybe bluff catch QJhh, JThh, QThh, 79s, 8xhh, J9hh and who knows what other nonsense?

[BorisTheSpider]

Thanks, I get that now. Yeah, AhXh was what I was thinking about, but it seems people think he won't fold them. Like you said, sometimes he'll also jam the flop with them.

[OngBonga]

I don't think trying to get people to fold top pair is sensible without reads. We should assume he always calls Ax or better at river due to his stack relative to pot.

Flop seems ok to me. I hate the turn. It hammers his range hard and tbh I just want to give up now. This turn kills our value.

As played I think river is either c/c or c/f. We can maybe c/c due to him likely being desperate with his missed draws. But quite frankly I expect his missed draws to still be ahead of us more often than not, so I think c/c is just levelling ourselves into value town. c/f river seems best but that makes our turn bet pretty bad. I suppose he checks behind hands like KJ that we beat, so actually I think c/f river is fine after b/f turn.