10NLZ - (Passively Played?) Straight

[Savy]

Villain is a complete unknown

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

Hero (BTN): $10.17 (101.7 bb)
SB: $10 (100 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $36.73 (367.3 bb)
MP: $14.70 (147 bb)
CO: $12.52 (125.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, SB calls $0.15, BB folds

Flop: ($0.50) 9 5 T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.35, SB calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.20) J (2 players)
SB bets $0.85, Hero calls $0.85

River: ($2.90) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75

Do we reckon we are missing on value by not raising the turn or river? If so which?

We block some of his mid flushes KX, he probably 3bets AQs+. Villain has some sets in his range and he arguably pays them off if I raise the river whether he should or not as a population read. Stuff like two pair I'm not so sure of.

I have to say though that I think it's more likely villains range is more full of stuff that he is trying to protect from a 4flush than it is flushes.

[The Bean Counter]

What's the plan if you raise turn or river and get called/shipped on (that's not me saying raising is good or bad btw)?

Really don't like a btn min-raise at 10nl.

[Savy]

What's the plan if you raise turn or river and get called/shipped on (that's not me saying raising is good or bad btw)?

Really don't like a btn min-raise at 10nl.

Tis zoom so we have sooo much fold equity we can open a shit load from the btn.

And I have no idea, is partly the reason I didn't at the time. But not raising because villain shoving over the top isn't a good enough reason not to raise imo.

[The Bean Counter]

What range do you think villain gets it in with on the turn? How are you getting on against that range?

[Savy]

What range do you think villain gets it in with on the turn? How are you getting on against that range?

I think arguably all sets on the turn raise my cbet. Let's assume though he gets it in on the turn with TT & JJ. 78, KQ and every flush possible along with over pairs with AA. So very badly.

I expect villain to flat a lot of two pair combos if I was to raise the turn. I'd also expect him to flat some Ax hands like A9-J and probably more. I don't know if that's wishful thinking on my part though.

The general read is people don't bluff enough, don't bet enough and call too much.

[The Bean Counter]

Grateful for feedback on this post:

I think turn is a raise/call or raise turn/jam brick rivers. I just think we miss out on too much value by not raising, as we'll get called by 2pair, pair plus draws, etc, plus we're doing just about okay to call it off when we get shipped on vs a narrow range, especially given we hold Kc (note: adding more flushes barely changes our equity):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.443% 23.03% 13.41% 7297 4248.00 { KcQd }
Hand 1: 63.557% 50.15% 13.41% 15887 4248.00 { JJ-99, 55, AcQc, AcTc, KQs, KcTc, QcTc, 87s, 7c6c, KQo }

I think the issue is whether villain only takes this line with turned flushes, but I doubt it on this potential scare card for him.

[BorisTheSpider]

BC - I disagree that we're missing value. Unless he's passive, what 2 pair or sets can he have that didn't raise the flop? JT, J9 and JJ. If he's passive, does he then donk the turn? I don't know, it's certainly possible, but I'm not sure.

AA/KK/QQ make more sense from a passive player - his hand just got worse now he's going to spaz out.

I probably station this down and play it exactly the same as the OP. I expect to see a few flushes, and quite a lot of wierd stuff that he decided to bluff with on the turn when the flush came in.

If there's a reason to raise the turn, I think it comes from AcTx, Ax9x, AcJx etc. I'm just not sure that's a big enough part of his range to get value from, and in any case those hands often bomb the river when they brick anyway, but if we raise the turn they are more likely to c/f the river, so I don't think we lose anything from them by stationing it.

[Lukie]

I'm not saying you can never deviate but as a default I think this is well played.

Bean Counter I think you are underestimating in your villain's turn bet/shove range how often he would show up with a flush (I'm counting 5/29 combos, almost certainly too low.) Only a little more than 5% of stacks went in preflop and flop combined.

[griffey24]

I think OP's line is good. I think raising the turn is certainly too thin and I see no reason to raise at all having the Kc as well.

I would fold river more often then I would raise the turn.

[OngBonga]

I'd probably raise half pot river bet, but raising a psb on river reps massive strength and will enduce a lot of hero folds with sets and 2prs, meaning we narrow his calling range to strictly flushes. Best we can hope for by raising this bet is to push him off a chop, ie not worth the risk. But if he half pots it then our raise could be mistaken for a bluff and then we might get enough calls to cover the times he jams the nuts.

[rpm]

turn call is good because we won't have much worse call a raise at this point, and our Kc is obv a nice one. river call i think is good too because he bet near pot (which i take to be kind of polarising) and probably won't call a raise with worse on a 3flush board