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Call river raise?

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  1. #1

    Default Call river raise?

    Villain is 16/13, 4% 3bet, 500 hands.

    Turn barrel might be bad, but I felt like he could fold quite a lot of draws and weak PP that he just floated the flop with on the turn. Of course, I can also sometimes be value betting against some draws.

    On the river, I'm finding it difficult to see what he can get here with this way that he'd want to raise now for value - I don't think too many nits are flatting their sets on this board, and even if he did slowplay the flop with a set I think he'd raise the turn to try and get all the money in on the river. 22 doesn't seem likely to have floated the flop, and although he can maybe have it pre, I want to discount it a bit because he's got 2 players still to act IP behind him preflop, and a squeeze happy big blind (although he might not know that).

    2 pair prior to the river is very unlikely, he can certainly have KJ but being 16/13 I doubt he's cold calling too much KJo so he really only reps 2 combos when he raises the river.

    Do you agree that getting 3:1 this is a call, or do you want to fold?

    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    BTN: $25.31 (101.2 bb)
    SB: $25 (100 bb)
    BB: $26.13 (104.5 bb)
    Hero (UTG): $25.55 (102.2 bb)
    MP: $29.52 (118.1 bb)
    CO: $6.13 (24.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with K A
    Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 4 folds

    Flop: ($1.85) 8 5 J (2 players)
    Hero bets $1, MP calls $1

    Turn: ($3.85) 2 (2 players)
    Hero bets $2.25, MP calls $2.25

    River: ($8.35) K (2 players)
    Hero bets $4.50, MP raises to $13
  2. #2
    What are you hoping to fold on the turn with such a small sizing? He's probably only folding pure floats I'd imagine?

    If I'm betting the turn like this it's because it's value bet vs a lot of draws. If that's the case, I might check river and hope he bluffs 9T, 67, diamonds etc.

    As played, I'd b/f.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  3. #3
    I think you'll see sets (most likely) and KJ exclusively here - calling river raises at the micros is a bad idea.
  4. #4
    This is a pretty standard fold vs this guy. It's a fold vs most people tbh, I'd want reads that villain spew bluffs river with a decent frequency.

    I'd bet flop more, like $1.25, and give up turn I think. As played, what griff says.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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