[10NL] AQs...Squeezed 3bet pot

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 27/24/15 (3bet, 2/13) over small sample (34 hands).

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $11.56
BB: $4.00
UTG: $4.82
MP: $10.15
CO: $10.77
Hero (BTN): $11.40

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q A

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, SB raises to $1.30, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.00

Flop: ($3.00, 2 players) 4 A 7
SB checks, Hero bets $1.70, SB raises to $3.40, Hero calls $1.70

Turn: ($9.80, 2 players) J
SB bets $6.86 and is all-in, Hero ???

Not really sure what to make of villain's line here. 3bet squeeze, followed by a c/min raise and then shove turn.

If I give villain a range of; AA, JJ, 77, 44, AKs, AJs, AdTd, AsTs, Ad9d, As9s, Ad8d, As8s, A7s, Ad6d, As6s, Ad5d, As5s, A4s, Ad3d, As3s, Ad2d, As2s, AKo, AJo then I only have 19% equity vs that range, and if my maths is right I need 29%.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,496 games 0.000 secs 299,200 games/sec

Board: Ad 4d 7s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.251% 19.25% 00.00% 288 0.00 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 80.749% 80.75% 00.00% 1208 0.00 { AA, JJ, 77, 44, AKs, AJs, AdTd, AsTs, Ad9d, As9s, Ad8d, As8s, A7s, Ad6d, As6s, Ad5d, As5s, A4s, Ad3d, As3s, Ad2d, As2s, AKo, AJo }

If I give villain a couple of semi bluffing hands, KQdd, KQss, 65s, 65o, my equity increases to 40% which makes it an easy call.

Thoughts?

[BorisTheSpider]

Hmm, the J isn't really a great card for you.

Although he makes it ridiculously small, I think maybe just folding to the flop raise is best. I mean, if we had more hands and he was really squeezing/3b this much, I don't think I can fold, but against someone who's basically an unknown at this point. Realistically, I think I probably call the flop raise because it's so small then fold the turn.

[griffey24]

This is such a spazz line by villain. If I 3b and min c/r the flop i MUST rep AAA.

Snap calling imo.

[OngBonga]

lol I can't believe griff is calling this flop.

Admittedly if I call the flop I'm calling turn, but I don't see villain ever doing this with his QQ/KK/AJ/air because we have a set pretty often here and an ace when we don't.

When I bet flop it's a b/f, and his minraise doesn't change that. I'm folding flop. I'd consider folding pre to 3bet but we're ip and suited so I probably do make the call.

[griffey24]

Presumably we're not calling AK pre, so this is the top of our range here. So I don't plan on folding, but again at these stakes you can probably make an exploitable fold (ie: fold your entire range here. do you get to flop with A4/A7/44/77?)

If you're giving villain so many Axdd in his range, then he prob ends up with KQ/QJ/JTdd and stuff too.

[d0zer]

agree with griff on everything.

[Cobra_1878]

Presumably we're not calling AK pre, so this is the top of our range here. So I don't plan on folding, but again at these stakes you can probably make an exploitable fold (ie: fold your entire range here. do you get to flop with A4/A7/44/77?)

If you're giving villain so many Axdd in his range, then he prob ends up with KQ/QJ/JTdd and stuff too.

I think people are more inclined to 3bet w/ suited Ax hands as opposed to suited broadways.

I also just realized I made a huge mistake in my ranges because villain cannot have A as it's on the board. Will sort that out and re-eval.

[OngBonga]

I can flat or 4bet AK, same with AA. I can have 77 here too, so AQ isn't top of my range here. I could have 44 too if I felt this guy was spazzy post flop as 3bettor. I doubt I get to flop with A7 and A4 though.

I just don't see what we're beating aside from air, and with 2/13 3bets I don't give him any air.

[OngBonga]

Actually I doubt I see flop with 77 to a 3bet of this size.

And I'm not expecting this to be the one combo of AA based on probability + pre flop sizing.

I guess this looks like AK. This would be a crazy line for JJ-KK to take unless villain thinks we're b/f'ing Ax. So idunno, if I'd made a few hero folds I probably fuck it call, but that's standing my ground so I'm not relentlessly exploited, expecting it to be -ev but not as -ev as constantly being pushed off top pair.

[griffey24]

I can flat or 4bet AK, same with AA. I can have 77 here too, so AQ isn't top of my range here. I could have 44 too if I felt this guy was spazzy post flop as 3bettor. I doubt I get to flop with A7 and A4 though.

I just don't see what we're beating aside from air, and with 2/13 3bets I don't give him any air.

I'd say most ppl on avg don't have AK or AA here though.

Also I don't know if we should read anything into a 13 sample, but now that you've mentioned it, 2/13 is 15.4%.. and now that's he's 3b here that's 3/14 (21%). IF you're trying to read into this small sample, I don't see how "I don't give him any air" is the conclusion we would draw?

[OngBonga]

Yeah funny how a small sample is so easily skewed. 15% is obv high, while 2/13 seems low.

I'd still expect him to be 3betting tighter from the sb.

And I probably do call AK and AA more often than not here because his sizing is big. He's gonna fire flop well over half pot pretty often, so it's a value call with AA, and I'm not sure AK holds up well vs his continue-to-4bet range.

But I'm not setmining at this price so I don't have 44 77. My range is AQ+ AA and maybe some KQs TT that tries to fold out JJ-KK.