[10NL] KK...3bet pot vs passive fish

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 69/6/0 over 17 hands.

Note on villain: The hand immediately before this one he doubled through me beating my AK w/ 72. He chk the flop w/ trips, c/c turn, c/r AI on river hitting quads; it's possible villain thinks I am on tilt.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $10.00
UTG: $10.00
MP: $10.66
CO: $11.65
BTN: $10.00
SB: $54.64

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K K

UTG raises to $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.55, fold, CO calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.45, 2 players) J T 6
Hero bets $2.25, CO raises to $10.10 and is all-in, Hero ???

From someone who has been so passive so far, albeit over a small sample, this shove seems purely for value.

I'm not sure how much he is bluffing here but he can have a huge amount of draws on this flop. Also, he may think I am tilting from previous hand and I'm just spewing and he is playing back at me.

I'm not sure what his range is for calling a raise and then calling a cold 3bet.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

65,340 games 0.000 secs 13,068,000 games/sec

Board: Jd Ts 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.122% 53.18% 00.94% 34747 616.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 45.878% 44.93% 00.94% 29360 616.50 { TT+, 66, AQs+, AsJs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KQs, KsJs, JTs, 98s, AKo, AJo, KQo }

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If my maths is correct I believe we only need 30% equity to make this call. Thoughts on range I have assigned villain? If range is in right area then I think this is obviously an easy call.

[BorisTheSpider]

It depends on if he jams his flush draws. I think it's very optimistic to believe he's jamming AKo unless you know he's spazzy. It's a tough spot I think, I probably call, but after he cold called preflop then called your 3bet, I think he's often either showing you a set, or a slowplayed AA.

[Cobra_1878]

It depends on if he jams his flush draws. I think it's very optimistic to believe he's jamming AKo unless you know he's spazzy. It's a tough spot I think, I probably call, but after he cold called preflop then called your 3bet, I think he's often either showing you a set, or a slowplayed AA.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume a fish will jam his NFD's here. Also, given how he slowplayed his trips/quads, it seems a little more unlikely that he would jam w/ a strong made hand.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

52,470 games 0.000 secs 10,494,000 games/sec

Board: Jd Ts 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.257% 51.15% 01.11% 26837 582.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 47.743% 46.63% 01.11% 24469 582.00 { TT+, 66, AQs+, AsJs, KQs, KsJs, JTs, 98s, AJo, KQo }

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I mean, even if we take all of the suited Ax hands below AJ out and take AKo out we still have 52% equity which is more than enough.

Just to check as well, the maths I used was 6.20 (bet) divided by 6.20 (bet) + 14.20 (pot).

6.20/20.40 = 0.30%

[BorisTheSpider]

Yeah your maths is correct. I do think it's a call, I just expect to get shown a lot of sets. Like you said, if he slowplayed the made nuts before it does make him jamming the top of his range less likely though.

Even vs. TT+,66,AKss,KsQs,JTs you have 34% equity.

I normally do it in my head at the tables by pot/call which just gives you the odds (just over 2:1 here), then the equity needed to call is 1/(odds+1), so about 1/3 or 33% equity, more accurately 30% since it's just over 2:1 you're getting.

Looking at it from another point of view, in GTO terms, if he's risking $6.20 (the raise) to win $5.70 (the pot when he jams) he's getting 0.91:1 and needs a bluff to succeed 53% of the time, so to prevent him jamming a bluff profitably you have to call with 47% of your range here, which if you're squeezing an UTG open with even as wide as [QQ+, AKs, AKo, A4s-A6s] then betting the flop with all the overpairs, all the nut flush draws and the AKo with a spade means you have to call it off with worse here - like you have to call QQ+, AKss and the small AXs, or you could call QQ+ and AKss and fold everything else.

If you're more polarised preflop like [KK+, AKs, AJo, KJs, QJs, A5s-A4s] then you bet the flop with all the AJo, all the overpairs, and all the flushdraws you can call AA,KK,AKss,KJss,QJss and be calling 52%. If you check back the flop with AJ, then your flop betting range is super strong and AA/KK make up 70% of it anyway, or AA,AKss,KJss,QJss makes up 53%, in which case you could conceivable actually fold KK here, but I'm not sure I ever would. Even if his jamming range was tight (TT+,66,AKss,KsQs,JTs), every hand in that flop betting range would be a +EV call, with KK (+6bb) and A5s/A4s (+9bb) being at the lower end of the range in terms of EV for calling, but still positive.

[Razvan729]

crying call

[OngBonga]

You missed JTo and T6s in his range.

This is a puke shove but given that we only need 30% I think it's a pretty simple call.

[eugmac]

i expect AJo to be in his range and therefore gladly snap
my thinking being to a 69vpip, top pair with an ace is the nuts

[griffey24]

Have to call but not too happy about it. Sucks we block his KQ/KJ potentially hands.

[rpm]

callorado