5NLZ - Two pair hits bdf Max Value

[Savy]

Unknown villain

Stacks:
UTG Player4 ($2.77) 55bb
UTG+1 Player5 ($10.92) 218bb
CO Hero ($6.11) 122bb
BTN Player1 ($15.23) 305bb
SB Player2 ($11.56) 231bb
BB Player3 ($2.16) 43bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, Player1 calls $0.15, 1 fold, Player3 calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47, 3 players)
Player3 checks, Hero bets $0.35, Player1 calls $0.35, Player3 folds

Turn: ($1.17, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, Player1 calls $0.80

River: ($2.77, 2 players)
Hero bets $4.81

Sick value extracting or missing out on loads of value?

[PokerKing]

I think the bet is to high. On the turn he called $0,80, and now you want him to call 6x that on the river. He must have a very good hand to make that call I think. I would double it, and be $1,60

[OngBonga]

I think this is ok. He's got KT T9 and Qx most of the time here, he's folding his bricked draws to any bet while maybe he calls a river shove with top pair because donk + top pair + micros = nuts. I've had AK ace high call me vs river overshoves on more than one occasion. Only thing I'd say is if you're gonna make this bet, don't leave 10c behind because usually when I see someone shove minus a couple of bb, they have the goods.

[Savy]

I think this is ok. He's got KT T9 and Qx most of the time here, he's folding his bricked draws to any bet while maybe he calls a river shove with top pair because donk + top pair + micros = nuts. I've had AK ace high call me vs river overshoves on more than one occasion. Only thing I'd say is if you're gonna make this bet, don't leave 10c behind because usually when I see someone shove minus a couple of bb, they have the goods.

I shoved. I don't know why it says I didn't.

[Razvan729]

Missing value. What can he call w/ on that board w/ river bet when he c/c 2barrel?

[Savy]

Missing value. What can he call w/ on that board w/ river bet when he c/c 2barrel?

Sets, two pairs, overpairs, stuff like AQ, KQ, 9T any flushes.

[Razvan729]

QJ/66/88/JJ/QQ/9T are never just c/c ing turn on that board
AA/KK will also raise flop/turn, if not they will more then often fold to the river shove. But they are very likely to 3bet pre w/ JJ+
Flop nonbelivers AdXd own you so does KTdd/ AKdd/ATdd, only hand that makes sense to get on river and call a shove is 9Tdd.
W/ that bet you are only paying hands that crush you and fold KQ/AQ/some QT, Q9

[Savy]

QJ/66/88/JJ/QQ/9T are never just c/c ing turn on that board
AA/KK will also raise flop/turn, if not they will more then often fold to the river shove. But they are very likely to 3bet pre w/ JJ+
Flop nonbelivers AdXd own you so does KTdd/ AKdd/ATdd, only hand that makes sense to get on river and call a shove is 9Tdd.
W/ that bet you are only paying hands that crush you and fold KQ/AQ/some QT, Q9

Well I can tell you that you're wrong about the sets so therefore I'd imagine the other hands which never x/c that board. People are passive. QQ+ I'd agree would raise a fair bit of the time pre, not so much on a board like this after calling pre though.

Pairs may fold out but I'd imagine that would happen with most reasonable sized bets that target the stronger parts of his range and this at least looks a bit FOS and stuff like AdTd, AdKd, KdTd 9dTd is 4 combos of hands.

[OngBonga]

I shoved. I don't know why it says I didn't.

Oh, I must've had a maths fail too then. I noticed it didn't say "all in" and calculated you left 10c behind. If you shoved, ignore that bit.

raz, this is 5nl. Very few people are as tight as you. Sets are not folding, neither is any 2pr he might have. At this level I expect most people will tank with Qx and while some will find a fold (I would), I think a lot of people are calling. If this guy calls his Qx, then we can make a note and vbet him to hell in future hands. Conversely, if he folds, we can make a note that he's not calling off river overshoves with top pair and we can make more reasonable sized bets. Yes we sometimes lose value, but often we get max value now with the added bonus of knowing he can't fold top pair.

I think you overestimate how many people are capable of folding their top pairs at these stakes.

[Razvan729]

I just think villa

[Renton]

I like the flop sizing. I don't like overbetting the river. If you want to overbet a street in this hand, its the turn, as there are a lot of J9/89/JT/Q9 type hands that will refuse to fold their gutter+pair. But honestly I'd probably just bet close to pot on the turn and a moderate size on the river.


Your overbet is only optimal vs T9, which was somewhat likely to raise on the turn. You will fold out a lot of queens with this bet, and queens are the vast majority of his range. It's possible your overbet will only get called by T9 and rivered nut flushes. Just bet like 1.99 imo.

Conversely, your line is great with AdTc.

[Razvan729]

thanks renton.

[Tom1559]

I think your bet on the flop and the turn was too high but you got a call both times so I guess it worked for you. I am not sure I would have shoved on the river as you are making it pretty difficult for him to call. Were you trying to to imply a bluff and get a call with a straight.