[25NL] AJo...River trips. Bluffcatcher?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 17/11/5 over 108 hands. CB 67%.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $27.20
MP: $10.61
CO: $21.39
BTN: $26.14
SB: $67.05

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has J A

UTG raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60, 2 players) T 7 9
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.10, 2 players) A
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00

River: ($7.10, 2 players) A
Hero checks, UTG bets $3.50, Hero ???

I really, really want to fold this. I just don't see what worse he is betting with.

I don't like the call pre, and I think that c/r the flop might be better than c/c given we have 2 overs w/ a gutter, his sizing is awful and that flops slaps our BB calling range pretty hard and misses his UTG raising range a lot.

I can't think of a single hand that he is betting this river with that we have beat.

[PokerKing]

No, his betting style indicates that he got something. The only hand he might have that you can beat is AT maybe? Did you fold? I'm not sure I could fold that hand

[Razvan729]

I like your analize. Go with it

[The Bean Counter]

Flatting AJo in the bb versus a 17/11 utg open is just asking for problems and is one of those where a pre-flop mistake will be compounded post-flop fairly often, plus we only get one Cbet if we are lucky the times we flop something and are good.

On the flop, generally if somebody bets this texture ip then your overs and gutter aren't doing that well, but villain's sizing is so small that I really want to make a move depending on my notes on his usual Cbet sizing, his fold to c/r and turn barrel stat.

As played on river, meh. The fact his turn bet is a bigger % than the flop makes me think he has Ax often, backed up by a value sizing on the river, but we only need to be good 25%. Let's say he has 8 better combos of Ax for trips, probably doesn't have ATo and doubtful he has flopped sets given flop sizing, he really doesn't need to be value owning himself with kk too often to make this a call.

[Renton]

I guess you could fold. His weak betting line looks a lot like AQ so I think i'd call with AQ just to chop, but fold this.

[Renton]

Flatting AJo in the bb versus a 17/11 utg open is just asking for problems and is one of those where a pre-flop mistake will be compounded post-flop fairly often, plus we only get one Cbet if we are lucky the times we flop something and are good.

I think the call is pretty dubious also but be careful with your reasoning. In poker we make the correct play given the ranges we put people on. He should be able to play his hand for a profit postflop, even vs UTG's range. The question is whether it would be a profit greater than the 0.50 he invested to see the flop. For example, if he just waited to flop broadway or trip jacks only and check folded every other flop, he'd make like 20 cents or so postflop. Deciding whether to call pre is just a matter of determining whether your hand is worth 50 cents vs a utg opening range. I think vs most utg players it's probably a pretty simple call, vs the 17/11, probably a fold.

[Micro2Macro]

never folding here without actual reads and a good sized sample for stats. I don't like reading into 17/11 much for this decision, especially given the sample size. It doesn't tell us if this guy checks the turn with Ax and barrels his draws or anything relevant post flop. Your odds are too good to fold this part of your range really. You need to just get over the fact that most of the time when facing a bet with a bluff catcher, you will lose the pot.

[griffey24]

Even if you call and lose 70% of the time, you need to make this call. Easy call IMO, I would play the hand the same way.

[Renton]

I was thinking about reneging on my assertion that I would fold given griffey and m2m's posts, butnah.

I fold here, I don't think he's bluffing like ever, and I think he's pretty unlikely to value bet with worse. There are certain situations in poker where you can give people extremely narrow ranges and I think this is one of them. The guy is 17/11, he may not even open a worse ace than AJ preflop. he probably wouldn't bet a crappy ace on the flop either. You beat only bluffs here and people don't bluff here, especially 17/11 people. Just fold the flop though vs this guy, its a very spewy call IMO. Raise if you want.

[daven]

fold pre, raise flop as played, meh-river-fold-sigh as played.