[25NL] JJ 3bet pot. Turn decision

[Cobra_1878]

MP - looking fishy. 83/83 over 6 hands

CO - 18/14 over 24 hands

BU - 22/16/6 (3bet) over 560 hands. BTN VPIP of 40%, FT3B 70%. Had seen villain 4bet twice, QQ and AKo. Had also seen him call 3bets OOP w/ KK and IP w/ KJs and T8s.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $34.27
BTN: $41.11
Hero (SB): $29.88
BB: $9.73
UTG: $10.76

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has J J

UTG raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, UTG calls $2.65, fold, BTN calls $2.65

Flop: ($11.60, 3 players) 8 T 5
Hero bets $5.00, fold, BTN calls $5.00

Turn: ($21.60, 2 players) 8
Hero ???

Turn doesn't change much but I'm not sure what to do here. I think I'm either way ahead or way behind, is c/c better than b/f? I have a PSB left behind and I think jamming here is just pure spew.

[Savy]

Bet flop bigger, bet turn. What do you think is in BTNs range that has us beat? He would 3bet QQ+, Plenty of draws in villains range, Something like 78 would probably fold the flop so he has very few trips, he has lots of hearts in his range some more draws like 9Js, some TP and middle pair he's likely folding regardless.

So the only things I think we are really worried about are TT & 55 which isn't a huge part of his range relatively especially because he's likely flatting pretty wide due to the fish pre.

So all in all I think bet bigger on the flop, shove turn is best.

edit - That last line is clearly outcome orientated, I'm not sure on turn cards being good/bad for us to bet bigger on the flop. There's probably a fair few cards we don't like that much.

[Cobra_1878]

Bet flop bigger, bet turn. What do you think is in BTNs range that has us beat? He would 3bet QQ+, Plenty of draws in villains range, Something like 78 would probably fold the flop so he has very few trips, he has lots of hearts in his range some more draws like 9Js, some TP and middle pair he's likely folding regardless.

So the only things I think we are really worried about are TT & 55 which isn't a huge part of his range relatively especially because he's likely flatting pretty wide due to the fish pre.

So all in all I think bet bigger on the flop, shove turn is best.

How much bigger do you want to go? I don't think just under half pot is bad in a multi-way 3bet pot on a dry-ish board where I'm way ahead a lot of the time. Also, villain has shown that he doesn't auto-4bet w/ QQ+ so they can't be disregarded.

If you're shoving turn, you're expecting to be called by worse?

[Savy]

Sorry, edited my above post before I saw you'd posted that. The bigger on the flop thing I was probably wrong about.

I'm expecting draws to call, stuff that beats us like sets and 8x and and some stuff like AT every now and again and quite a lot of folds.

[Renton]

Probably check bombing this flop, as played push the turn for protection and occasionally to get called by worse. Your hand is good the majority of the time here and theres only 1p left behind.

[griffey24]

I'd prob go 6.50ish flop given three way and shove turn.

[Tom1559]

I would have bet 3/4 pot on the flop to hopefully get rid of any straight or flush draws. When the 8 hits on the turn I do not see any option other than to push.

[STILL_mkd]

You can bet the turn about $8.50 or also you can go all-in, because there is also a possibility to he made a better pair from you on the river if he has A,K or Q and if will be dealt some of these cards on the river.
Maybe he has a lower pocket pair than you like 99, but the risk is big, so for my opinion it's better to make bigger raise to $8/9 or go all-in to protect your cards, than to let him to see the river.
However, this is only my opinion and I hope that this will help you.
GL

[WeldPhaser]

[QUOTE=Cobra_1878;2192997]
BU - 22/16/6 (3bet) over 560 hands. BTN VPIP of 40%, FT3B 70%. Had seen villain 4bet twice, QQ and AKo. Had also seen him call 3bets OOP w/ KK and IP w/ KJs and T8s.
[/QUOTE/]
Ok . First I'd like to say congratulations to ya cobra. No more are your villAins 60/15/1 over 39 hand s. What I'm saying is its been a long road for from 5nl to 25nl. You put in the work. Keep it up.

Now my question for the higher ups. Stats like the bu has here. Is indicate of a thinking player. With cobras reads about what hands he's flats some 3b s with. What's yours take of him not 4b kk and the other hands. Is he balancing. Should we be thinking a lot about that at 25nl? ?