Fielmann's weekly blog

[Fielmann]

The goal of this blog is to post three hands every week with some analysis. Everyone is welcome to comment.

[Fielmann]

HAND #1


Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com


CO ($5.07)
Button ($7.31)
SB ($5)
BB ($12.08)
Hero (UTG) ($9.30)
UTG+1 ($5.16)
MP1 ($5.05)
MP2 ($2.22)


Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, 10
Hero raises $0.16, 4 folds, Button calls $0.16, 2 folds


Flop: ($0.39) 3, 6, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.32, Button calls $0.32


Turn: ($1.03) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, Button calls $0.70


River: ($2.43) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.16
Hero?


Villain is a 52/10 fish. His aggression frequency is very low on flop but not that low on turns and rivers so I guess he floats quite a bit. Still, I didn't feel comfortable calling here.


I need 24% to call and I actually have 43% against {JJ-33, A6, 76, 65, 54}, but this assumes that villain is betting worse one-pair hands, which he not always is.


If I discount half of the worse one-pair hands (54, 55, 77, 88), then I have 29%. Considering that he might also have something weird (A3, overcards, pure bluff) it looks like calling is the best play.

[Fielmann]

HAND #2


Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php


MP3 ($4.90)
CO ($6.51)
Hero (Button) ($5.13)
SB ($5)
BB ($2.50)
UTG ($5.31)
UTG+1 ($5.92)
MP1 ($10.92)
MP2 ($5)


Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
4 folds, MP3 raises $0.15, 1 fold, Hero raises $0.45, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.30


Flop: ($0.97) 4, J, 10 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50


Turn: ($1.97) 10 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks


River: ($1.97) Q (2 players)
MP3 bets $0.55
Hero?


Villain is 21/10 and he is aggressive post-flop.
I feel I should have bet bigger on flop and perhaps bet on turn as well because it will be difficult to extract any money if any of the draws should hit.


River is one of the worst cards as both draws complete. But villain makes a very small bet so I only need 18% equity. I actually have 35% against {QQ-TT, AQ+, AT}. Since he doesn't raise often pre I don't think he can have hands like KT, JT, T9 here.

[Fielmann]

HAND #3


Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com


saw flop | saw showdown


UTG ($5.14)
UTG+1 ($5.07)
Hero (MP1) ($4.91)
MP2 ($0.19)
MP3 ($6.16)
CO ($7.14)
Button ($6.17)
SB ($14.08)
BB ($5)


Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, Q
2 folds, Hero raises $0.16, 2 folds, CO calls $0.16, 2 folds, BB calls $0.11


Flop: ($0.50) 2, Q, 6 (3 players)
BB bets $0.36, Hero calls $0.36, 1 fold


Turn: ($1.22) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $0.90
Hero?


BB is 13/10, looks somewhat aggressive post-flop.

I am interested in the EV of raising all-in on the turn.

I expect villain bets the following range: {QQ, 66, 22, AQ, KQ, QJ, AhJh (as bluff)} where the non-bold hands are discounted by 50% as I think he might reraise QQ pre, fold 66 or 22 and be more careful with QJ post-flop. Altogether that's 1*0.5 + 3*0.5 + 3*0.5 + 8 + 6 + 8*0.5 + 1 = 22.5 combos. I think he will fold AhJh and half of the QJ which is 3 combos. Chance he'll fold is 13%.
Against his calling range I think I have around 40% equity (but it's hard to stove this exactly because it will depend on what suits exactly I remove for the various discountings.)

If he folds, I will win 2.12.
If he calls and wins, I will lose 4.39.
If he calls and I win, I will win 5.61.


Total EV: 0.13*2.12 + 0.87*0.60*-4.39 + 0.87*0.40*5.61 = -0.06.

[griffey24]

Welcome to blogs!

Your sizing on the first two hands is the opposite of what I would choose. I'd bet a bit smaller on such a dry flop in hand 1, and bet harder for sure on a draw heavy board on hand 2.

hand 1 - I would c/c river, given sizing.

hand 2 - Meh again, run out sucks but I gotta call given sizing. I would bet turn though, he has way more Jx/straight draws than Tx.

hand 3 - easy turn call

[Fielmann]

Thank you for the advice, I appreciate it.

hand 1 - I would c/c river, given sizing.

Wouldn't you want to bet river, considering that the 52/10 villain is likely to call with plenty of worse?

[griffey24]

Thank you for the advice, I appreciate it.Wouldn't you want to bet river, considering that the 52/10 villain is likely to call with plenty of worse?

I meant more along the lines of, now that you've checked, I would call

But yes, I would prob bet like half pot on the river.