[5NL] JJ OTB facing big heat post.

[Mury]

This hand was used as an example of why I shouldn't be playing deep until I've mastered 100bb games... Like the comment was if I was 100 deep I could just stack off here and be happy.

SB: $12.50 (250 bb)
BB: $21.36 (427.2 bb)
MP: $7.11 (142.2 bb) {56/20, 166 hands}
CO: $12.50 (250 bb) {completely unknown, the only info we have is that he posted behind the BU}
Hero (BTN): $15.32 (306.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
CO posts BB OOP, MP calls $0.05, CO checks, Hero raises to $0.25, 2 folds, MP calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.87) 2 5 8 (3 players)
MP checks, CO bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.83, MP folds, CO calls $0.68

Turn: ($2.53) 4 (2 players)
CO bets $1.65, Hero calls $1.65

River: ($5.83) 6 (2 players)
CO bets $4.05, Hero folds

I'll do my best to put him on a range OTR here. In my experience a lot of players will defend when they post pretty wide. So pre we'll give him something like:

Equity Win Tie
Hero 70.74% 70.34% 0.39% { JdJs }
CO 29.26% 28.87% 0.39% { JJ-55, 22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T8s, 97s+, 87s, AQo-A2o, K9o+, QTo+ }

On the flop lets assume he's just donk/call any pair/draw or better...

Board: 2d8h5c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 73.57% 73.22% 0.35% { JdJs }
CO 26.43% 26.08% 0.35% { JJ-55, 22, A8s, A5s-A2s, K8s, K5s-K2s, Q8s, T8s, 97s+, 87s, A8o, A5o-A2o, 98o }

The turn's a little tougher... We're facing a reasonably sized bet with the high likelihood of facing another bet OTT. I think it's pretty hard for us to give him just a single pair weak kicker here... so lets try and narrow his range down a bit here.

Board: 2d8h5c4d
Equity Win Tie
Hero 45.71% 44.77% 0.94% { JdJs }
CO 54.29% 53.34% 0.94% { JJ-88, 55, 22, A8s, A3s, K8s, A8o, A3o }

So now on the river we're facing a massive bet. We can't call here with no information on this guy, can we? We need 29% to call. I doubt he does this with top pair. I doubt he does this with 99-JJ too TBH but I left that in here.

Board: 2d8h5c4d6c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 32.89% 31.58% 1.32% { JdJs }
CO 67.11% 65.79% 1.32% { JJ-88, 55, 22, A3s, A3o }

[Mury]

If this hand were 100bb stacks

For my own benefit...

SB: $12.50 (250 bb)
BB: $21.36 (427.2 bb)
MP: $7.11 (142.2 bb) {56/20, 166 hands}
CO: $12.50 (250 bb) {completely unknown, the only info we have is that he posted behind the BU}
Hero (BTN): $5.00 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
CO posts BB OOP, MP calls $0.05, CO checks, Hero raises to $0.25, 2 folds, MP calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.87) 2 5 8 (3 players)
MP checks, CO bets $0.15, Hero ($4.75) raises to $0.83, MP folds, CO calls $0.68

Turn: ($2.53) 4 (2 players)
CO bets $1.65, Hero ($3.92) calls $1.65

River: ($5.83) 6 (2 players)
CO bets $4.05, Hero ($2.27) folds

I could probably just jam turn here with 100bb stacks and expect to make a profit, albeit a thin one.

[Razvan729]

if you were 100bb you should shove or fold turn.
you forgot to put him on 67/79dd/68dd/56dd/57dd/78dd
hard vs unknown, so many hands he owns but he could also be full of air.still the right decision w/ no info.
turn we have A3/67/22/55/88 41combos for sure that take this line. pair+FD might play the same or choose a different line, anyway turn call its close.

[griffey24]

I would probably play it the same. Maybe not raise quite so hard on such a dry flop, but yah folding river looks good.

[OngBonga]

Think I fold the turn, I mean he's called a flop raise and then donks right back into us on turn. Seems like he hopes we have an overpair. We're crushed. A3 67 or set imo.

[STILL_mkd]

You played well, but I also think that it would be better if you fold on the turn. Like Ong said he called your raise and then bet to $1.65, so it's more than sure that he has strong hand. However, your fold on the river was correct move.

[WeldPhaser]

i think its played fine, but i'm curious how often your raising flops like so 3-way, not saying wrong at all, just curious of your frequency