|
[5NL] JJ OTB facing big heat post.
This hand was used as an example of why I shouldn't be playing deep until I've mastered 100bb games... Like the comment was if I was 100 deep I could just stack off here and be happy.
SB: $12.50 (250 bb)
BB: $21.36 (427.2 bb)
MP: $7.11 (142.2 bb) {56/20, 166 hands}
CO: $12.50 (250 bb) {completely unknown, the only info we have is that he posted behind the BU}
Hero (BTN): $15.32 (306.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
CO posts BB OOP, MP calls $0.05, CO checks, Hero raises to $0.25, 2 folds, MP calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.87) 2 5 8 (3 players)
MP checks, CO bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.83, MP folds, CO calls $0.68
Turn: ($2.53) 4 (2 players)
CO bets $1.65, Hero calls $1.65
River: ($5.83) 6 (2 players)
CO bets $4.05, Hero folds
I'll do my best to put him on a range OTR here. In my experience a lot of players will defend when they post pretty wide. So pre we'll give him something like:
Equity Win Tie
Hero 70.74% 70.34% 0.39% { JdJs }
CO 29.26% 28.87% 0.39% { JJ-55, 22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T8s, 97s+, 87s, AQo-A2o, K9o+, QTo+ }
On the flop lets assume he's just donk/call any pair/draw or better...
Board: 2d8h5c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 73.57% 73.22% 0.35% { JdJs }
CO 26.43% 26.08% 0.35% { JJ-55, 22, A8s, A5s-A2s, K8s, K5s-K2s, Q8s, T8s, 97s+, 87s, A8o, A5o-A2o, 98o }
The turn's a little tougher... We're facing a reasonably sized bet with the high likelihood of facing another bet OTT. I think it's pretty hard for us to give him just a single pair weak kicker here... so lets try and narrow his range down a bit here.
Board: 2d8h5c4d
Equity Win Tie
Hero 45.71% 44.77% 0.94% { JdJs }
CO 54.29% 53.34% 0.94% { JJ-88, 55, 22, A8s, A3s, K8s, A8o, A3o }
So now on the river we're facing a massive bet. We can't call here with no information on this guy, can we? We need 29% to call. I doubt he does this with top pair. I doubt he does this with 99-JJ too TBH but I left that in here.
Board: 2d8h5c4d6c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 32.89% 31.58% 1.32% { JdJs }
CO 67.11% 65.79% 1.32% { JJ-88, 55, 22, A3s, A3o }
|