10NL J9s OTB - X or B turn?

[Mury]

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10, $0.02 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $43.73 (437.3 bb) {32/23, 30% ATS, 8% 3b, 38% CB, 154 hands
BB: $29.43 (294.3 bb) {25/9, 1/3 fold to CB, 33 hands}
MP: $8.42 (84.2 bb) {51/3, 37 hands}
CO: $37.56 (375.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10.06 (100.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 J
MP calls $0.10, CO folds, Hero calls $0.10, SB raises to $0.40, BB calls $0.30, MP calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.70) 9 2 8 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.95, 2 folds, MP calls $0.95

Turn: ($3.60) A (2 players)
MP checks, Hero ??

How we should be doing v opp OTF:

Board: 8h9s2c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 65.21% 63.68% 1.53% { Jd9d }
MP 34.79% 33.26% 1.53% { KK-22, A9s-A8s, A2s, K9s-K8s, K2s, Q8s+, Q2s, J8s+, T8s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A9o-A8o, A2o, K9o-K8o, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }

Anyone betting for value here? Or is that just too thin... we have to assume he's folding a lot on this turn. If he folds all his 8's and gutters we drop to 47% on this turn.. leaving him a range of:

Board: 8h9s2c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 47.40% 44.16% 3.25% { Jd9d }
MP 52.60% 49.35% 3.25% { KK-88, 22, A9s-A8s, A2s, K9s, Q9s, J9s+, T9s, 96s+, 76s, A9o-A8o, A2o, K9o, Q9o, J9o+, T9o, 97o+, 76o }


Thoughts?

[dhubermex]

Hi Mury.

This is a tough situation in my opinion. Normally I think with the Ace scare card out there we have to Bet after he Checks the Turn, but almost all the hands included in Villain's range you've posted would call that bet either for value or to draw to a rivered straight. Plus, there are quite a few cards that could cause us to shutdown on the river, so I personally think a Check behind is in order. I can see him folding small Pocket Pairs to a Turn bet of 2/3 Pot, but not much else.

Also, his Preflop action suggests he's got us beat, especially when the Ace hits on the Turn. As played, I'd shutdown and try to get to a cheap showdown or River 2 Pair or Trips and then Snap Call a lead Bet by Villain on River or Value Bet about $2 behind his Check... if we improve our hand. If not, I'd probably Check the River as well since I don't see many hands we're ahead of Calling in that situation.

Unfortunately, I'm not the best person to be giving advice on Cash Games so take my line with a grain of salt. I'm interested to see how some of the better Cash Game players would play this. I'd also like to know how the hand turned out once others have had an opportunity to post advice.

Best of luck to you, Mury!

[STILL_mkd]

I think that it will be better if you bet and see what will be villain move. If he make raise, than go fold.

[The Bean Counter]

Pre should be an iso. Flop bet is good and your sizing is perfect imo.

Turn is a spot where I b/f 100%. Villain is most likely 76 and JT, with some better 9x, some weaker 9x and no doubt some 8x, so there's plenty of value to be had and plenty of combos to protect against. There's also the chance we fold some of the better 9x when we bet, as this guy is probably the type to "put him on AK" without thinking through the logic.

This guy likely doesn't have QQ+ btw. He has raised pre-flop before, so we can assume he does at least raise QQ+ AK at least pre-flop.

[Renton]

J9 suited is certainly strong enough to raise from the button. Even though the hand plays very well multiway, I don't like giving value to the blinds by limping unless my hand is so weak that I'm not comfortable putting in a lot of money. For example, I would always iso raise the strong suited hands like this and I would typically limp 22 or J6s or A7o. There are certain hands that are super strong in multiway that you could decide to just iso to a very small amount like 2.5bb, A4s or 33 would be a solid hand for that, but it does open you up to being exploited by good players who know you're raising to different sizes with different ranges.


I think that the flop bet could be sized even smaller. It's a fairly dry board and you're very likely to be beaten if someone calls you 4 way, so your bet is more for protection than value. 70-75 cents IMO.


Turn spot is interesting. Betting certainly has merit as your hand is mostly good, but th eproblem here is that he just is going to fold nearly every worse hand. He could also easily have a better 9 or TT/QQ etc, so again, your turn bet will primarily function as protection to fold out his equity with 8x/2x or to get value from JT/76/T7. There is substantial value to this, however if you look at what happens when you check, you may find that the outcomes are quite good for you.


1) He's unlikely to value bet you with Q9 or TT, so you safely avoid paying those hands off.


2) If he bets the river, his range will primarily be busted straight draws. QT/JT/J7/T7/T6/76/65/75 all are plausible for his range. Many of these hands fold the turn, but would be perfectly willing to pot it into you when they miss. You can, of course, easily call his river bet on every river that isn't a 7 or T. If he turned two pair or slow-played a set on the flop, that's unfortunate, but you would be giving that hand value regardless of the chosen line. And the possibilities for two pair plus are remote compared with the busted hands.


So ultimately the decision to bet the turn depends on the likelihood it is that he will bluff his busted gutters and oesds. You will find in theory study that this is very often the deciding factor for whether to bet for protection in position in NLH.

[Mury]

So ultimately the decision to bet the turn depends on the likelihood it is that he will bluff his busted gutters and oesds. You will find in theory study that this is very often the deciding factor for whether to bet for protection in position in NLH.

Wow. Thanks Renton, that's a hugely insightful post. Takes me a while to digest.

As far as our decision to bet the turn, based on your insights, I think this should be a fairly clear bet. Based on our reads (51/3, 37 hands), this opp has shown very little inclination to play aggressively so I think it's pretty unlikely he bluffs a lot of his busted draws. He probably just X/F's them the majority of the time. As for our sizing, we're kind of in the same boat as we were on the flop, betting more for protection than value I think, so something like 1.4-1.6 or in that neighbourhood should work, no?

[Renton]

IMO the general empirical data supports fish bluffing off their stack oop when the draw bricks, especially on a scare card turn like this, more than your 37 hand sample of him being loose passive pre-flop supports him giving up.

But yeah, 1.6 would be about right.