Home game hilarity.

[a500lbgorilla]

LP is a rock who gets bored easily and bluffs with bad cards every once in a while to, as he would say, "purge his table image." He is almost automatic with his preflop and flop motions: Raise 5, Bet 10. He also doesn't hide his feelings about his hand when it comes time to make a decision, no real tell. He just hates calling with anything worse than the nuts.

Stacks: I've got him barely covered with about 60 bucks. Blinds .5/1

I'm dealt :Th: <- oooOOOooo Hearts.

LP rock raises 5 and I call on the button.

Flop comes :Ks: :Qs: :Jc:

LP bets 10, I raise to 20, he mutters and calls. I have no real read at this point, I'm just happy money is going in the pot.

Turn is a :Qh:

LP checks, I bet 10, LP check-raises allin for about 35 bucks total. I do.. something?

I am unhappy. He had bluffed at big pots twice earlier and it had been about 45 minutes since he flipped over a nice bluff. The brilliance of his earlier moves finally dawns on me. I can call here citing the bluffs and get dominated by his boat OR he could be semibluffing with a flush or straight draw OR he could have been swinging with Q and be way behind. He could have anything. Fug.

-'rilla

[Fnord]

Raise more on the flop, lots of pay-off hands. Lots of hands have 4 outs too.

[a500lbgorilla]

No one else wants to offer up some opinions on my hands? I'm dissappointed in you all.

Now go to your room.

-'rilla

I'm making that call every time. If he's a known bluffer then he could be bluffing, but really he could have absolutely anything.

A set, a flush draw, a straight draw, or of course the boat.

I think the boat would be a long shot so I would make the call.

[jokerindapack]

My guess is he's not bluffing...this hand anyway. From what I get from your description of things it looks like he got you frustrated w/ his play which is exactly what he wants.

My guess is you called because you wanted to beat him in that hand, for one you have a legit hand, and two you don't want to be bullied around by a "bluffer".

unfortunatly (and I hope it's not the case) I guess he has either Jacks over Queens, is holding A-10, or A/x and got a 10 on the river.

Again I hope neither is the case.

[a500lbgorilla]

Well, close. I didn't post this as a bad beat but as a tough decision.

In my mind it the breakdown was like this 33/33/33/1

33% of the time he's got a great second best hand and thinks he's got me.
33% of the time he's bluffing.
33% of the time he's a big suckout or just outflopped me.
1% of the time will make it a full 100%

So, I figure I've got him 2/3rds of the time and its 25 bucks to win a 60 pot. I've got 2ish:1 pot odds so I called figuring that in the long run, I'm making out like a bandit.

I called and he turned over :As: :Qc:

-'rilla

[FlyingSaucy]

Remember he's the one with the preflop raise, and you think he's a rock, so normally the "occasionally bluffing" rocks arent going to bluff it start to finish on a scary board. He's got something like KQ or AK. Go for it.


Edit: hah, looks like I was wrong. Nice call still.

[zenbitz]

I actually put him on AQ, reason - the PFR.

Sure he could be bluffing at the pot - but I doubt it, since he he called your flop raise. For him to have a boat on the turn, he would have had to flop two pair, and he would probably have re-raised you.

So, either he has AK/AQ - because of the PFR. Probably NOT AK because he went all-in when the turn was a Q.

OR he's slowplaying KQ/QJ/AT - but no tight player would PFR those hands. AT makes sense, because he's scared of the boat

BTW - superfishy call, 5xBB vs. a rock with suited connectors?

[a500lbgorilla]

Nah, it's not super fishy. He's got to hit the flop to win the pot, i've just go to have him *not* hit the flop. So I had position, a read, my favorite hand and a guarenteed flop bet out of him if I do flop top pair or something. He has just got some high cards and a rock table image.

-'rilla

[zenbitz]

OK, math time. I realize you are playing the player, much better than playing the cards, but I have to check to see for myself.


OK, so he is pfring 5BB - Means he has AJ+ or TT+, since you have a T, let's rule out TT.

Possible hands Number P (N/96)
AJ/Q/Ko 36 .375
AJ/Q/Ks not hearts 9 .094
AJ/Q/Kh 3 .031
JJ/QQ/KK/AA 48 .50


So, 53% of the time you are actually in quite a big dog. Now, roughly, the chances of him hitting a flop with any of these hands is about 45%, better than that for the sooted hands, worse for the pairs.

For the sake of argument, asume that he won't lay down to a raggy flop if he has a big overpair - so 1/2 the time - you have to hit your hearts or you are losing 5BB plus flop bet. So, 1 in 5*.50% you have a flush or straight DRAW vs. pocket pair, i.e., you are a fish . The other 4/5 you are flat beat.

The other half the time, he hits 45%, and you lose 5BB. 55% he misses and you win 5BB (he folds). Not going to assuming what happens on the
ATXr. flop. Now, if you both hit, i.e., A7hX - you have a nice draw, but it's still a draw.

So, on average, you will win 1/4th of the pots, with no implied odds if he has no pair. If he has a high pocket, I think you are in big trouble, unless you flop the straight or flush (maybe 1 in 50)

I think this is a good play, or at least breakeven, if you can get him to lay down his pocket pair like 40% of the time.

[a500lbgorilla]

In pots I win on the flop, you have to add 10 more big blinds becuase his preflop and flop betting is robotic.

You've got to drop his raising standards to all pairs, he loves them. And I have to clarify table image purging, he had turned over 54o after a preflop raise of 5BB so that is also an outside chance.

Also, like I said, he doesn't like calling into a lot of aggression without the near nuts. If he was raising without a pair, he's not going to like high cards that don't pair him, over cards to his pair and scary boards. Also the usual raise at the table is 4BB so another BB is ignorable in my mind.

-'rilla

[elanto]

I know you already posted the results but i would have folded, his pre flop raise put him on two overs and im not taking the chance that this guy had KQ-QJ. However you did have a good read on him and maid the right call, congrats...To sum things up i would have to say that this was one tough call.


-anto

[zenbitz]

interesting... I wasn't considering the raise anything other than standard. I think you have to ignore the rag bluff here - I mean, that's balls. He would have to bluff call you on the flop, then push with nothing and a board fulla high cards.

But if he raises all pairs - then I think your play is better. Although, I can't fathom a guy who raises low pocket pairs and then lays down to any flop bet if he misses.

So, now he lays down pps 2s-7s, so that's probably your 40% right there.

[ottifanten]

River card was...?

[a500lbgorilla]

Don't be so results-oriented.

-'rilla

[Bite]

I ignore the preflop call. On the flop you should have raised pot at least imo. No point in playing a flopped straight semi-slow. It's too fragile and you are giving the other guy implied odds. On the turn....well this is a hard decision. It would depend on how much of my stack was allready in and my read on the other guy. If you are behind you are drawing dead but the pot should be fairly big now (assuming you had raised the pot on the flop). Hard hand to get away from then, I think I would get my money in if I thought there was a fair chance I was ahead.

[a500lbgorilla]

I did raise the flop, just not hard.

-'rilla

[Bite]

I did raise the flop, just not hard.

-'rilla

I know, I read your post. That's my point. The flop bet was a bit weak, shoulda been at least the size of the pot. This is one of the rare occasions I think overbetting the pot is justified. You are pretty sure you are ahead in the pot but your hand is really fragile and the pot is not really small. You both still have a descent stack left to bet with. If the board pairs or a third spade falls your hand might be dead. I'd like the other guy to pay me off on the flop or get the hell out of the hand.