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 Originally Posted by Chicago_Kid
...so you had that good a read on him that $4 meant big pair?
He could have had a middle pair trying to steal, then you end up getting nothing.
I would have raised it to $14 for value.
I said I figured one of the players had a big pair, not necessarily the guy who bet $4 on the turn. There was a preflop raise, then a *reraise*, and then the first position player continues making small "callable" bets when the flop comes 6, 6, 6, which are then called by the guy who reraised preflop. It's obvious at least one of these players has a full house which beats 6's full of 10's.
Anyways, the fact is that I'm only going to profit from a pair above 10's here (or maybe an unlikely 6's full of 10's), and the way to win the maximum from these hands is to put them to a decision at a point when they have virtually no reason to think they're losing. Again, why wait for a scare card to fall on the river that might change a player's mind about the strength of his hand?
You say that I'll end up winning nothing if he's trying to steal with a middle pair. So what? The alternative is to win maybe an extra few bucks. If I play under the probable assumption that someone has a pair above 10's, I win a ton from these hands, and lose out on the opportunity to win maybe a couple bucks from a player without one of these hands. It's clearly a winning trade-off.
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