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 Originally Posted by ender555
cocco, that really wasn't a horrid play of his now was it? you called instead of pushed so i wouldnt put you on kings or aces. rarely are you dominated like he was in that hand, and if you play it aggressively you have no choice but too eat it. Also, it can be valuable betting big when someone else is all in and you hit the flop in anyway. If you can get them to lay down a better hand you win the pot. I saw someone do that at the final table of a 350k gauranteed tourny with QJ when he had queens, and somoene laid down AQ.
You seem think poker very different than I do.
First MTT play is very different than a full ring cash game.
In a full ring game after a 11BB pre flop raise the range of hands should be fairly limited.
Looks like you are implying that the merit of his play would be to perhaps fold a better hand and then go heads up against the small stack? So what better hands could he be up against here? KK, AA a set? Do you think that any of those hands are likely to fold here? Remember if he is up against a draw its better to make the opponent draw against the odds without the need of overbetting the pot. You want to be called! Also there is no reason to believe I would be drawing here.
He is betting 20 into a pot of 15, so for this to be a profitable play against a better hand he would need to first get me to fold the better hand and then also beat the small stack. Lets say he has x chance of getting me to fold a better hand and approximately 70% chance of having the small stack beat.
then he has a 0,7x chance of winning a 15$ pot this way
and a 1-x chance of losing those 20$ to the better hand.
so (1-x)*20 has to be smaller than 0.7x*15 for this to be profitable.
(1-x)*20<0.7x*15 , 1-x<0,7*15/20x, 1 < 0,7*15/20x + x
1 < x(0,7*15/20 +1), x> 1/(0,7*15/20 +1) => x> 0.6557
So he needs to fold KK or better 65,57% of the time with this 20$ bet for it to be profitable. I think its pretty rediculous to think this would be the case. With the big pre flop raises I would guess a better hand would fold here max 25% of the time.
Now if he tought he had the best hand and was betting for value, then the bet was far too big. It is very unlikely a worse hand would call here. Obviously JJ and smaller PP's are folding, AK is folding, KQ is unlikely to have called the pre flop raises, but a fold for KQ here would not be unreasonable. So in effect this bet is pretty much only getting called by better hands.
I will make a followup post on this later..
Edit: I mistakenly used $20 instead of the actual $25, that change would just make his play seem worse than it already appears by my calculations.
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