top two with blind steal facing min raise

[gabe]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) converter

Hero ($116.6)
SB ($97.4)
BB ($195.1)
UTG ($77.9)
UTG+1 ($141.08)
MP1 ($247.3)
MP2 ($138.55)
CO ($22)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, T. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
5 folds, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($10.50) T, J, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB raises to $20, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($50.50) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $55, Hero goes allin with $91

I bet the pot on flop to make it look like i was buying it. My first reaction to the minraise was that he must have played back at me because he thinks im buying the pot. but i think if he had something like AJ or KJ he would have raised more than the minimum. so now i'm thinking he has a monster hand (TT or 44 ??), so I just call and decide ill reevaluatino the situation based on his turn bet....which happens to me an overbet, so i push thinking he is trying to push his top pair off my possible straight.

thoughts?

[DimitriT]

I like your theory that the overbet is to protect a large pair. He could even have AA or KK here. Or like you said he is protecting his set.

[DaHorror]

I agree - looks like AA, KK, or scarier for you, TT.
But TT would match the $4 up front likely.
The tricky thing is that those hands will play almost identically here.
Tough call. I would probably put him on TT and give away $25 there.

[Element187]

I agree - looks like AA, KK, or scarier for you, TT.
But TT would match the $4 up front likely.
The tricky thing is that those hands will play almost identically here.
Tough call. I would probably put him on TT and give away $25 there.

if you put him on TT you lay your hand down now... if you put someone on a hand, put em on that hand and make the appropriate action .. learn to trust your reads.


i think if it was AA or KK he would reraise preflop on you.

[a500lbgorilla]

I push on the flop. Top two vrs a lot of aggression can become a sticky situation fast.

Just be satisfied with your 20.

I hate your turn action. The feel of KQ is just overpowering. Even AA doesn't pot the turn unless op is an ultra-aggro.

EDIT though, in a blind steal battle. Anything is possible.

-'rilla

[DaHorror]

So don't leave a turkey in suspense - what'd he have in the end?

Either push on the flop, or fold the turn here.

What hands do you beat? I can't see him having AA/KK, surely that would reraise preflop. The three hands that he is most likely to have here is KQ/44 and a small chance of TT.

If you haven't got the best hand on the flop, you are unlucky, that's why I would consider outright pushing there, he could be protecting his set, but he could also be trying to build the pot with his OESD. But I am pretty damn sure you are behind on the turn, I think it should be folded there.

[dsaxton]

Unless your opponent is particularly good, I wouldn't even consider laying down top two pair here. I'd probably prefer to reraise on the flop given the possibility of a straight draw, but just calling, then moving in on the turn isn't' so bad either.

[Rondavu]

I think it's likely our villain has vulnerable top pair like AJ or J9. He could also have an overpair. It's unlikely he has a set. He's not playing it that way. I rule out KQ here too, because doubling your $10 bet out of position on the flop is not a draw. Doubling your bet is a classic move for TPTK, or an overpair here. When the turn hits and he goes bonkers he might have J9, or he might be protecting his overpair from a coordinating board. Either way you must be ahead. You just have to be. You made the right move in my opinion. I hope my read is accurate.

One more thing. You denied yourself a read by not reraising his raise on the flop. You gave the impression that you don't have an overpair yourself. That makes AJ go bonkers on the turn and deny you a good read on his strength. You gotta reraise the flop.

[DaHorror]

I am inexperienced, no doubt - and not terribly creative to boot. But I don't see how the villain isn't playing this like a set.
Hero raised 5x BB preflop and everyone else fled...that says Hero has somewhat likely AA/KK/QQ/AKs, etc.

Then Villain check-raised the flop - seems very set-play-like heads up when you put the other player on overpair and not straight draw, which might be what villain was thinking after Hero comes out so strong post-flop.

The reason I don't like Villain on AA/KK is - why would you check/slow-play that on a JT4 rainbow on the flop? Now our sample-provider here didn't give us any info on Villain's playstyle in previous hands - if he is a loose-weak, then he might slow-play AA/KK. His bets don't look weak so I don't see that.

Please correct my ignorance/noobishness - fun exchange btw

[gabe]

i thought it was a situation where i had someone reverse dominated (like against AJ or QJ) and I was happy to get all my money in on the turn if he would call it.



he had 44.

[DaHorror]

Interesting. I guess I can see calling 5x BB with 44 - particularly if he had a read on you making 5x BB bets with stuff like J-10 offsuit. I had him on the TT because for my piddly-stakes self, $5 seems like a lot to call with 44 - but if I translate it to my level and it's just 50c I sometimes call it to see if I hit the flop and drop it otherwise.

i thought it was a situation where i had someone reverse dominated (like against AJ or QJ) and I was happy to get all my money in on the turn if he would call it.



he had 44.

Yay, my read be g00t!

[gabe]

Interesting. I guess I can see calling 5x BB with 44 - particularly if he had a read on you making 5x BB bets with stuff like J-10 offsuit. I had him on the TT because for my piddly-stakes self, $5 seems like a lot to call with 44 - but if I translate it to my level and it's just 50c I sometimes call it to see if I hit the flop and drop it otherwise.

he called with a pair because if he hits the set he will get paid off. this is standard ring game move.