Very interesting hand from this morning

[dalecooper]

***** Hand History for Game 2240627155 *****
$100 NL Hold'em - Tuesday, June 21, 10:17:56 EDT 2005
Table Table 36690 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: ritsaki ( $43.96 )
Seat 2: fostees ( $40.04 )
Seat 3: wankolnikov ( $107.3 )
Seat 5: Jogranmama ( $81.86 )
Seat 6: DirexWolf ( $109.73 )
Seat 4: stressball10 ( $103.55 )
DirexWolf posts small blind [$0.5].
ritsaki posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ Jh Jd ]
fostees folds.
wankolnikov folds.
stressball10 raises [$3].
Jogranmama folds.
DirexWolf calls [$2.5].
ritsaki raises [$8].
stressball10 calls [$6].
DirexWolf calls [$6].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, 8s, Js ]
DirexWolf checks.
ritsaki checks.
stressball10 bets [$35].
DirexWolf raises [$70].
ritsaki folds.
stressball10 is all-In [$59.55]
DirexWolf calls [$24.55].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
DirexWolf shows [ Td, Qh ] a straight, eight to queen.
stressball10 shows [ Jh, Jd ] four of a kind, jacks.
stressball10 wins $214.1 from the main pot with four of a kind, jacks.

[dalecooper]

In case anyone's looking for explanation as to why I called his raise (actually re-raised all-in), it's a pot odds thing. At that point I put him on the made flush, but knew I was still only 2:1 against filling up and beating him anyway. The pot was about $130 ($27 pre-flop + my opening bet of $35 + his call and raise of $70). I could have called for $35 more, but I figured I was headed all in anyway with only $25 left, so actually it was going to be $155 pot (all of the above plus his $25 call) and $60 to me to make that happen. Therefore with the pot giving me a lot better than 2:1, I figured that despite appearances, this was a highly +EV move. Given that he had a straight and not a flush, there was perhaps even a tiny, non-zero chance he would fold to my all-in, which helps too.

[koolmoe]

He could also have a smaller set or maybe QQ with a spade.

[Fnord]

Looks like a pretty boring hand to me.

The pot is big enough that I might just push on the flop.

[DimitriT]

The odds of making a boat or quads is not 2:1 it is almost exactly 3:1 with
two cards to come (7/47 + 10/46)

I'm glad you scored but I wouldn't have made that call.

[dalecooper]

The odds of making a boat or quads is not 2:1 it is almost exactly 3:1 with
two cards to come (7/47 + 10/46)

I'm glad you scored but I wouldn't have made that call.

According to this site it's 2:1 (look under the section for odds, flop to river) -

http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

And according to this site, vs. either a flush or a straight I'm about 35% likely to win:

http://simulator.pokertips.org/simulator.php

I don't know the specific math, i'm more of a memorizer, but I'm pretty sure it's about 2:1. I do know it's roughly 15% on the turn and 20% + on the river, which should definitely be more than 3:1 (25%) overall.

[dalecooper]

Looks like a pretty boring hand to me.

Any pot that nets me $100 in profit isn't boring.

I just find the pot odds part interesting. So many threads around here are about whether or not you're a favorite to win the hand, and conventional wisdom is that if there's a decent amount of money at stake and you're not a favorite, fold. This time I think there were clear reasons to think that I was not a favorite, but that I had to show down anyway.

[DimitriT]

I just cut and paste this from the site you gave:

Flop to River
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The probability of making:

A full house or better from a set by the river - 2/1

33%

2/1 I guess means 2 to 1

basically you need to get payed $2 for each $1 bet you make
for that bet to work.

In this case the pot was about $60 when he raised you another
$35. So it was $35 to go. You were getting

$95 for your bet of $35 which is definitely better than 2/1

So after doing the math, yep, this was a good call up to $35. You were
getting better than 3:1 odds, but your extra $25 by going AI was
a mistake.

[dalecooper]

That's incorrect - 2:1 means basically the same as 1/3, or 33%. If you're getting 2 to 1 odds, there's 2 chances of losing for every one chance of winning; i.e. your odds are 1 in 3. 2:1 would be a 33% chance of hitting, 3:1 would be 25%.

http://teamfu.freeshell.org/poker_odds.html

[dalecooper]

So after doing the math, yep, this was a good call up to $35. You were
getting better than 3:1 odds, but your extra $25 by going AI was
a mistake.

Why? I can flat call here but if he bets $25 on the turn, I have to call that too because the pot odds are much too high to fold. I would rather be the person putting that $25 in the pot first, in almost any hand. Better to be in the driver's seat if there's any chance at all of the other player folding.

[DimitriT]

Sorry. You're right. 2/1 is the same as 1 out of 3. I keep getting the terminology wrong.

But I'm still not sure about your extra $25. Your $35 gave you
a pot of $130. So the bet was $35 to win $130. How does the $25
improve your odds since you were the last to bet in this case?
Unless your odds were better than 1:1, how does adding the $25
increase your EV.

Edit: I just saw your second posting. I can understand that now.
Not sure I agree with it, though since you are risking $25 for the small
chance that he folds. He could have checked through figuring you
had the flush and if you hadn't made the hand, you would be $25
richer.

[dalecooper]

Maybe, but to me it seems unlikely that a guy would check-raise me to $70 on the flop - in the process building a $150 pot - and then check the turn. If it's unlikely he will fold to my all in on the flop, it seems just as unlikely that I'm keeping my last $25 on the turn. I'd rather get it over with and make the aggressive move myself.