Nut flush vs paired board - raise the river?

[SmackinYaUp]

A little background: Helfdan had started the game with $60something and built it up to his current stack playing heads up against me for the past half hour or so. He was getting the better part of me by calling my bluffs and he pushed allin on a couple of my bluffs while I went card dead. I felt like he was pushing me around a bit as well, but I also suspect he was just hitting more hands. Anyways, he was fairly aggressive and a good player over all. The other two people in this hand had just joined and we were both in HU mode still so discount them.

Is this a good raise heads up or am I risking facing an allin? If he does push allin, do I call?

***** Hand History for Game 2282193858 *****
$100 NL Hold'em - Wednesday, June 29, 13:36:42 EDT 2005
Table Table 54884 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: SmackinYaUp ( $314.03 )
Seat 6: helfdan ( $114.52 )
Seat 2: Alabama_Ang ( $94.1 )
Seat 4: Deathw1sh ( $24.65 )
helfdan posts small blind [$0.5].
Alabama_Ang posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SmackinYaUp [ 7d Ad ]
>You have options at Top of the World Table!.
SmackinYaUp raises [$3].
Deathw1sh folds.
helfdan calls [$2.5].
Alabama_Ang folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qc, 2d, 5d ]
helfdan bets [$5].
SmackinYaUp calls [$5].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8d ]
helfdan bets [$15].
SmackinYaUp calls [$15].
** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]
>You have options at Top of the World Table!.
helfdan bets [$20].
SmackinYaUp raises [$40].

[DimitriT]

If I were your opp at this point I would have put you on a busted draw.
Your raise is reasonable and may get you the hand if he hasn't caught a good piece of the board.

Edit: I don't think the paired board matters much here

[dalecooper]

Paired board is probably not going to hurt you, but I habitually flat call on the river in situations like these. It's generally not worth the risk unless you have a rock-solid read on your opponent's hand. Here it's very hard to tell what he might have - you're probably safe, but a flopped set or something like Q8 is possible.

[Grand_MasterB]

I raise every time here on the river and i HOPE to get reraised. You are playing heads up and when playign against just one other opponent the odds of you two both getting such monsters is so slim that i pay it off every time it does happen and i know i will still come out way ahead in the long run. If you dont raise you are just leaving money out there that should be yours.

[SmackinYaUp]

Thanks for all the replies people. He flat called and flipped over A8.

[face]

You are playing heads up and when playign against just one other opponent the odds of you two both getting such monsters is so slim that i pay it off every time it does happen and i know i will still come out way ahead in the long run.

I'm not sure if I agree with this logic. Yes, the nut flush is a very good hand here even with the paired board, but the question isn't the odds of both players getting a monster head up, the question is how many solid players with worse hands will make a huge bet on the river and call your raise on the river (or reraise). The odds of having KK up against AA are very low, but if two or more people are allin preflop, the conditional probability of this unfortunate event (if you have the kings) is much higher. How many times have you made a call, thinking to yourself "No way they have an XX...." and that's exactly what they flip up? Also, how many times have you been in a similar position on the river, raised, and had the other person with deep stack push allin, forcing you to call with what you now almost know is the worse hand?

Looking at the board and the preflop raise, I think only A8 or KQ, QJ, Q10 of diamonds would be able to call here, while QQ, 22 and 55 and maybe Q8 would probably play about the same way and would be begging for your raise. Because hardly any hands that you are beating would call, and hands that have you crushed would push, I think a call is marginally correct here, especially given the large pot and continued strength shown by helfdan (and the continued passivity of SmackinYaUp). However, if your opponent is aggressive enough to be making a 20$ bet on the river without a boat, and makes loose enough calls with medium-strength hands to justify raising, then I think your minimum raise on the river is a very nice move.

For a hypothetical: what if you both had equal stacks preflop, you played the hand the same way and made the same raise on the river, you have the same read on your opponent, and he pushed over the top?

[SmackinYaUp]

Very nice reply face. If he pushed, I would reluctantly call. The guy was bluffing too much and overplaying his hands as it was. Full ring this would have went down a lot differently.

[SinkRox]

I think you should of made a chunky re-raise at the turn to get a better idea of where you stand.

[bair]

I think you should of made a chunky re-raise at the turn to get a better idea of where you stand.

to get a better idea of where he stands? he has the nuts.

[bencathers]

I agree with dale. Normally I just call in these situations... but the way he has playing, he didn't hit the set on the flop... and if he hit two pair on the flop, he wasn't getting the boat with the running two pair right there.... I'd re-raise even heavier... because he's thinking his trip 8's are strong