Top set on a straight flop....what could they have?

[BobbySalami]

Well, there is no way in hell I believe I can fold here......my only reads on this guy is that lizardking blew a whole buying drawing dead to chase an ass end straight....and I had taken Kid Ryan's money the day before so he probably wasnt too happy with me and maybe trying to get his money back since he found my table..........

I think they have to have something better than TPTK to make this play, even at these limits I dont see that too often....I just could not put these guys on a hand.....maybe a flopped straight, but would he overbet that much?...and the smooth call scared me.

Any thoughts?....if you dont want to answer because getting in the mind of a microlimit player is tough I will understand....

so I felt I either call looking for a boat or push AI....but I just could not put them on a range of hands.....


FullTiltPoker Game #174837908: Table Arcadian Shores - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:49:30 ET - 2005/08/04
Seat 1: BassMaster11 ($4.35), is sitting out
Seat 2: lizardking321 ($10.05)
Seat 3: TJ311 ($3.80)
Seat 4: Kid Ryan ($10.70)
Seat 5: oldclimber ($3.85)
Seat 6: Zach ($9)
Seat 7: BobbySalami ($9)
Seat 8: vchia ($12.50)
Zach posts the small blind of $0.05
BobbySalami posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BobbySalami [7c 7h]
vchia folds
lizardking321 calls $0.10
TJ311 folds
Kid Ryan calls $0.10
oldclimber folds
Zach calls $0.05
BobbySalami checks
*** FLOP *** [5h 6h 7s]
Zach checks
BobbySalami bets $0.40
lizardking321 raises to $3
Kid Ryan calls $3
Zach folds
BobbySalami ???

[journey075]

small overpair and oesd i bet.

[CrunchyNuts]

The straight, an OESD, two pair, underset, overpair (TT-) or a flush draw are all possible holdings for these guys. I like your chances...35ish% (iirc) to hit the boat which beats everything and a fair chance to beat what they have. Heck, if they both call your push 35% to win is +EV right there (barally).

[EricE]

You know your whole stack (or near it) is going in by the river if you call. With the straight on the board I might fold it. 7 outs to a boat(or better)...only $.5 invested. With the flush draw and straight draw on the board I likely fold assuming I won't make the boat.

[bair]

umm...push

[CrunchyNuts]

7 outs on the turn, 10 on the river (3 added to pair the turn card) to hit boat+. Damnit, now I need to get out the calculator again...
40/47 * 36/46 = 1440/2162 ~= .666, so 33.3% to make boat+, yar math.

[bair]

he doesnt need outs...you cant be afraid of a straight here thats ridiculous. sure he may have it, but if you fold everytime you have a set on a straight board then you are definitely losing a TON of money. they could easily be doing the same exact thing with: 45, 56, 67, 78, 44, 88, 99, 75, and any 2 hearts. if anyone doesnt push here you are insane.

[BobbySalami]

7 outs on the turn, 10 on the river (3 added to pair the turn card) to hit boat+. Damnit, now I need to get out the calculator again...
40/47 * 36/46 = 1440/2162 ~= .666, so 33.3% to make boat+, yar math.

So your saying it is only EV=0 if you are AI with both opps. if you are drawing to the boat?....so then on the chance your ahead do you want to get both of them in this hand instead of scaring anyone out?

[EricE]

he doesnt need outs...you cant be afraid of a straight here thats ridiculous. sure he may have it, but if you fold everytime you have a set on a straight board then you are definitely losing a TON of money. they could easily be doing the same exact thing with: 45, 56, 67, 78, 44, 88, 99, 75, and any 2 hearts. if anyone doesnt push here you are insane.

You may be right but I put him on a made hand not a draw. Yes, it could be two pair but the other guy called too so you have two hands to worry about. <shrug>

[CrunchyNuts]

Correct, if someone currently has you beat it's break-even if you get them both to go with you (and they both have you covered, minor detail there).

But that's all in the frame of they probably don't have you currently beat. They're probably on the draw, in which case it's a matter of looking at their combined draws vs their individual draws. Let's assume one has an OESD and the other's on the flush draw. OSED has 8 clean outs to improve over you, flush draw has 8 clean outs as well (you're holding the 7h). They share 2 of them. So individually they have 8, together they have 14. 8 outs is 31.5% to hit, 14 is 51.2.

Just to make things easier on me, let's assume you all started with $10 (close enough to reality here). Pre-flop is minor compared to the post flop stuff, so let's keep that money live. You're going to push at "???", let's see the EV for if one calls vs if both call. (Also falsly assuming if they hit an out that you won't hit yours to come over - sue me)
One caller - final pot $23, your contribution $10, your chance of winning 68.5%
EV: .685 * 13 - .315 * 10 = 5.755
Two callers - final pot $30, your contribution $10, your chance of winning 48.8%
EV: .488 * 20 - .512 * 10 = 4.64

So in this case it's better if you only get one caller.

But that was the worst case - the two draws shared as few outs as possible. If they're both on the same OESD their combined outs is 8 and the EV for two callers over one is 10 more---huge.

[journey075]

umm...push

[BobbySalami]

Wow...math can be so helpful. Thanks a lot for working that out like you did.....That is very helpful info to know in situations like this in the future.

[BobbySalami]

he doesnt need outs...you cant be afraid of a straight here thats ridiculous. sure he may have it, but if you fold everytime you have a set on a straight board then you are definitely losing a TON of money. they could easily be doing the same exact thing with: 45, 56, 67, 78, 44, 88, 99, 75, and any 2 hearts. if anyone doesnt push here you are insane.

Do you think I should be more worried here if the reraise isnt as large trying to protect a hand againse the draws?...or do you play it the same regardless?

[BobbySalami]

Well, from your responses, I geuss I made the right move....it worked out for me, just wanted to see what responses I would receive and If i made a good move....Good thing I filled up becuase the other guy hit one of his draws.....

BobbySalami raises to $8.90, and is all in
lizardking321 raises to $9.95, and is all in
Kid Ryan calls $6.95
lizardking321 shows [Ad As]
Kid Ryan shows [9h Ah]
BobbySalami shows [7c 7h]
*** TURN *** [5h 6h 7s] [5c]
*** RIVER *** [5h 6h 7s 5c] [8c]
lizardking321 shows two pair, Aces and Fives
Kid Ryan shows a straight, Nine high
Kid Ryan wins the side pot ($2) with a straight, Nine high
BobbySalami shows a full house, Sevens full of Fives
BobbySalami wins the main pot ($25.75) with a full house, Sevens full of Fives
lizardking321 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $29.20 Main pot $27.10. Side pot $2.10. | Rake $1.45
Board: [5h 6h 7s 5c 8c]
Seat 1: BassMaster11 is sitting out
Seat 2: lizardking321 showed [Ad As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Fives
Seat 3: TJ311 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Kid Ryan showed [9h Ah] and won ($2) with a straight, Nine high
Seat 5: oldclimber (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: Zach (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: BobbySalami (big blind) showed [7c 7h] and won ($25.75) with a full house, Sevens full of Fives
Seat 8: vchia didn't bet (folded)