what now?

[FishMagician]

Reads - abdul is pretty fishy and likes to chase. brabby seems pretty solid.

***** Hand History for Game 2511775248 *****
$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, August 10, 16:13:50 EDT 2005
Table Table 36662 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 4: RErbBK ( $380 )
Seat 6: abdul121 ( $482.46 )
Seat 8: rghall8 ( $641.32 )
Seat 3: FishMagician ( $820.80 )
Seat 9: Mr__Rake ( $255.30 )
Seat 2: RavenQ ( $402.10 )
Seat 1: Highrolla86 ( $277.40 )
Seat 7: brabby ( $383.30 )
Seat 10: bluenipple ( $344.50 )
Seat 5: NoRefunds25 ( $357.30 )
rghall8 posts small blind [$2].
Mr__Rake posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to FishMagician [ As Kh ]
JOIN THE CRUISE - 7 MILLION DOLLAR PRIZE POOL. PLAY SUPER SATELLITE ON FRIDAY!! REGISTER NOW OR PLAY DAILY QUALIFIERS!
bluenipple folds.
Highrolla86 folds.
RavenQ folds.
FishMagician raises [$15].
RErbBK folds.
NoRefunds25 folds.
abdul121 calls [$15].
brabby calls [$15].
rghall8 folds.
Mr__Rake calls [$11].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ac, 4s, 8s ]
Mr__Rake checks.
FishMagician bets [$59].
abdul121 calls [$59].
brabby calls [$59].
Mr__Rake folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
FishMagician....?????????



I have no clue. First caller most likely has two spades, based on how he's been playing since he sat down. I don't think the second caller had a set, because you would have to raise in that situation with two spades out, and he is a solid player from what I've seen so far. So bet out? Giving a free card is a terrible here, but if I bet and get raised hard I'll be in a real tight spot and probably have to lay it down.

[Fnord]

$100

[EricE]

If you think you are ahead, bet it for value and push it hard. No real reason to think you are beat here.

[lamaros]

$150 if you trust your reads.

[realgenius]

I agree a big bet is needed here.

[FishMagician]

Ok, how about now?

** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4d ]
FishMagician bets (200)
abdul121 did not respond in time.
abdul121 folds.
brabby raises (309.30) to 309.30
brabby is all-In.
FishMagician: fuck
FishMagician.....??

I'm thinking I bet too much, but can I get away from it at this point? He could have ak/aq/aj I guess, but I'm really thinking I'm beat here.

[Greedo017]

i think you have to call and i think you're beat. 125 would've been escapable.

[EricE]

I would lay it down on the turn. But I am weak.
Did you call?

[realgenius]

Honestly I'd have to call it. I really doubt he tripped up 4's, and the only other hand to put him on to beat you would be pocket 8's which is a possibility. I mean otherwise he'd have to be playing A4 or A8 to beat you. None of which is likely, so I'm thinking he's still on the flush draw or has AK, AQ, or something like that.

[lowBoy]

Another $100 in a pot that's $750 and you can't put him on a hand that has you beat? It's possible that he has AA or some nutball shit like that, but that would be a weird way to play it for a solid player.

[FishMagician]

I didn't think I was beat 6 out of 7 times here, so I had to make the call. Here's what happened:

brabby raises (309.30) to 309.30
brabby is all-In.
FishMagician: fuck
FishMagician calls (109.30)
** Dealing River ** : [ 8c ]
Creating Main Pot with $854.60 with brabby
** Summary **
Main Pot: $854.60 | | Rake: $3
Board: [ Ac 4s 8s 4d 8c ]
Highrolla86 balance $277.40, didn't bet (folded)
RavenQ balance $402.10, didn't bet (folded)
FishMagician balance $864.80, bet $383.30, collected $427.30, net +$44 [ As Kh ] [ two pairs, aces and eights -- As,Ac,Kh,8s,8c ]
RErbBK balance $380, didn't bet (folded)
NoRefunds25 balance $357.30, didn't bet (folded)
abdul121 balance $408.46, lost $74 (folded)
brabby balance $427.30, bet $383.30, collected $427.30, net +$44 [ Kc Ah ] [ two pairs, aces and eights -- Ah,Ac,Kc,8s,8c ]
rghall8 balance $639.32, lost $2 (folded)
Mr__Rake balance $240.30, lost $15 (folded)
bluenipple balance $344.50, didn't bet (folded)



In retrospect, this really makes the most sense for him to have.

[Fnord]

Nice post.

If you just read boards one might forget that you have the best hand or spit often enough to call in spots like this.

Also, think ahead one step when sizing a bet. I said $100 specifically to avoid being pot-struck. I would only bet $150-$200 if I planned to either call the rest or put it in on the river.

[journey075]

yep fnord's right. $100 is the best bet possible on the turn.

"$150 if you trust your reads" is bad advice bc you act first and you have 2 callers behind. wtf kind of reads can you possibly have in that situation?

100 gives you an op to distance yourself from the hand and is still enough to control the direction of the hand.

[FishMagician]

Yep, I definitely bet too much. I wish I could say that I bet and thought "ok I'm pot-commiting myself so I'll have to call any raises," because if that had been my line of thinking, I don't think it would have been that bad. But that wasn't my line of thinking.

The thing that really perplexed me about this hand is that it's not heads up, even on the turn. I didn't know what to bet to balance chasing the drawer vs not being able to get away from a raise. I'll have to peruse my hand histories, but now that I think about it I think I might be real shaky vs more than one opponent. May be more posts coming along these lines. Thanks for the help.

[lamaros]

Yes, $200 is too much, but $100-150 is fine to me.

If he trusts his reads he's scared of A8 and A4. He wants to bet enough to put out the flush draw. His PF raise was nearly 4xBB. $150 is fine.