Small bets heads up

[bigg_nate]

Heads up, blinds 200/400. Both our stacks are around 7500. BB seems pretty tight preflop -- limps a lot on the button, but tends to respect my raises. I've never seen them bet or raise more than the minimum.

I have A 3 on the button and raise to 1000. BB calls.

Flop: 9 6 3. BB bets 400, I raise to 2000, BB calls.

Turn: Q. BB bets 800, I call.

River: 8. BB bets 800, I call.

Comments?

- Nate

[vqc]

Riase to 1200-1500 on the flop

Fold the turn.

[CrunchyNuts]

You're beaten on the turn. He called your big raise, he has something...might just be an A, but there might easily be a 9 or a 6 with that ace.

After that, he's just extracting.

[lamaros]

I have a rule for heads up: Calling is for suckers, or for suckering others.

Put him AI on the turn or fold.

[bigg_nate]

Riase to 1200-1500 on the flop

You want me to bet 800-1100 into a 2800-chip pot? That seems pretty weak ...

Fold the turn.

Really? I'm getting 8.5:1 -- doesn't that seem like good enough odds to call? Most likely I've got 5 outs, and there's at least some chance I'm ahead.

- Nate

[bigg_nate]

You're beaten on the turn. He called your big raise, he has something...might just be an A, but there might easily be a 9 or a 6 with that ace.

If he only "might easily" have me beat, don't I have to call the turn? He doesn't have to have ace high very often for me to come out ahead ...

- Nate

[bigg_nate]

I have a rule for heads up: Calling is for suckers, or for suckering others.

Can I sit at your table?

- Nate

[TLR]

If he is tight, called your preflop raise and bet on the flop most likely he has something.

I would probably flat call the flop bet.

On the turn I think you are behind, you have 2 options, either fold or force him out of the pot by going AI.

I dont think the turn has improved him, he either has 6 or a 9. I f he is the kind of player who will fold to a AI reraise without the best hand then I would go AI, otherwise I would fold

[CrunchyNuts]

800 into a 6800 doesn't give you odds to chase 5 outs, but if you figure you might have him beat some of those times then sure, just barally you've got odds.

But I contend that pot odds rarely come into it when HU - chasing will cripple you much more then the chips might indicate. Especially if you say the guy's tight...you'll get a lot more folds pushing 4500 at his 10500 then you will pushing your 2900 at his 12100.

And I agree with VQs advice on the bet...a raise is more a matter of how much more over their bet, rather then the pot (again, since pot odds don't often come into play). Raising to 3x or 4x their bet aughta give you as much information as 5x.

[drmcboy]

I think you made the big play on the flop for info, and you got it. If you were going to call all the way down, how about a call on the flop as well?

You say these small bets are standard, there is no reason not to give him a big hand here, and you have no idea what your outs are. If an A had come and he moved in, what would you have done?

[dalecooper]

He has you beat - easy fold on the turn. I also agree with raising less on the flop. Pot size isn't that important; he's tight and to that type of player, you're raising relative to his bet, not the pot. I'd make it 1600 and if he calls, fold the turn. Or push the turn. Calling down is not a good play with bottom pair and a tight/possibly passive opponent betting into you. Give yourself a good chance to win - the calldown with just a pair of threes is a money-loser against this type of player.

[bigg_nate]

The results:

Villain had AQo. I was way ahead on the flop, and he hit a 3-outer. I think there's a reasonable chance he would have played AK or AJ the same way, so I stand by my call on the turn. Not so sure about the river, though.

- Nate

[bigg_nate]

I contend that pot odds rarely come into it when HU - chasing will cripple you much more then the chips might indicate.

Wow, I feel the exact opposite -- I would have guessed that cEV and $EV are proportional heads up, and that they are less correllated at any other time in the tournament. Has anyone put any thought into this?

- Nate

[CrunchyNuts]

I suppose if you figure he thought your over the top was a steal attempt (he must have, given his cards), he might lead out weak on the turn like he did.

I don't know that I've ever seen a tight player do that though. Most will check to see if you've got the cahones for a second steal shot, or lead out strong to push you out.

As it turns out, he lead out weak 'cause he was extracting.

[CrunchyNuts]

I contend that pot odds rarely come into it when HU - chasing will cripple you much more then the chips might indicate.

Wow, I feel the exact opposite -- I would have guessed that cEV and $EV are proportional heads up, and that they are less correllated at any other time in the tournament. Has anyone put any thought into this?

Yes, I've put quite a bit of thought into this. It's true that cEV mathematically correlates to $EV here, as you're simply fighting over the difference between 1st and 2nd. But you have to consider the player. You lable him as tight, he folds a lot to raises. Presumably he does that because you have a decent stack to lean on him with. If you lost that, you would lose that advantage, and that's worth a lot of chips late in the game.

Now, if you can assign a number to that and add that into your pot odds, more power to ya. In this case it was a very close call assuming 5 outs and a chance to be ahead already - this factor can only push it to a clear fold.

[dalecooper]

The results:

Villain had AQo. I was way ahead on the flop, and he hit a 3-outer.

That makes sense to me. You have to notice that he's a tight player calling a raise pre-flop and on the flop (he's got something, or a draw to a strong something), who then escalated his bet on the turn. After a min-bet and call on the flop, even a slightly increased bet of 800 is a warning sign. Considering you still only have bottom pair, I'd fold there. And if you raise somewhat less on the flop, it doesn't cost as much to fold.

I played a guy at the end of a live tournament once who was just like this. Rarely raised pre-flop, would only call my raises with good hands. Generally only bet when he had the goods, but would call some bets if he had overcards or a draw. These guys are very easy to play against once you're in tune with their thinking patterns. You just get out of their way when they show signs of life, and steal from them as often as possible otherwise.

[bigg_nate]

You have to notice that he's a tight player calling a raise pre-flop and on the flop (he's got something, or a draw to a strong something), who then escalated his bet on the turn. After a min-bet and call on the flop, even a slightly increased bet of 800 is a warning sign.

Note that 800 is still a min bet on the turn, it's just that the min bet has increased. So I don't see it as being particularly strong.

These guys are very easy to play against once you're in tune with their thinking patterns. You just get out of their way when they show signs of life, and steal from them as often as possible otherwise.

That makes some sense, but I always have trouble folding to underbets. I generally find it hard to believe that it won't be a bluff even 10% of the time.

- Nate

[CrunchyNuts]

If he makes that move (calls big raise then leads out weak) 10% of the time, he's a huge freakin' donk...that's a retarded bluff.

What site has limit minbet rules in no limit tourneys?

[bigg_nate]

PokerRoom.

[dalecooper]

Oh, that's weird. I didn't even know that. That may change my analysis somewhat, I'm not sure. I might be tempted to call the turn/fold the river or push the turn, but I'm still not comfortable with tighty betting into me twice after I raised pre-flop. Even though he caught a lucky card in reality, the whole thing reeks of strength. He may not actually have much but he THINKS he has something, and that's always a danger.